4 replies to this topic

[mss]

Will someone count this for me? I dont do A<B<Cs

CHART

And we wait till Monday.
Thanks,
mss

[beta]

Will someone count this for me? I dont do A<B<Cs

CHART

And we wait till Monday.
Thanks,
mss

Hi MSS,

Ill take a quick stab -- see two possible set-ups on your chart (interesting to note that you employ SPX closing prices, not intraday high/lows):

Scenario A: 62% retrace from the peak (1553) to the low (1406) completed on 9/4/07. Implies that the next "C" wave will continue down to retest the recent low, i.e., below 1406.

Scenario B: if the rising channel holds up (i.e., today's LOD), next "B" wave in progress projects to 78% retrace of the 1553-1406 move. This would project to SPX 1520. Ultimately, a bearish resolution (projecting to much lower prices < 1370) but meanwhile, would crush bears/Sept put holders over the next 2-3 weeks.

Either way, I am CONFIDENT that we will retest < SPX 1429 within the next 6 weeks, but the key question is, do we retest SPX 1520 first ?

Have a good weekend.

Edited by beta, 07 September 2007 - 07:31 PM.

[Iblayz]

Just looked at the SPX daily after looking at your chart. I am NOT an e-wave expert. I am just getting up to speed on the stuff. But to my eyes that looks like a leading diagonal. If it plays out that way that would make it Wave 1 after an ABC correction off of the highs. But the fifth wave of the impulse could not be more than 65 points. If 4 just bottomed that would put the fifth wave target at approximately 1512. If that plays out the lows will not be retested anytime soon and, in fact, the highs will not only be retested but will be exceeded in wave 3.

[dcengr]

There's a well known elliott correction wave count, its called 3-3-5. It is 3 waves down, then 3 waves up, then 5 waves down. It usually is a corrective pattern of A-B-C. Hence wave A is little a-b-c in a zig zag down, then wave B is little a-b-c in a zig zag up, then wave C is 5 waves down. There's a potential that we hit the wave A low in mid August (zig zag down), then we completed wave B up recently (in a zig zag up), and now we may be embarking on wave 5 down. If this is how it will unfold, the decline will be quite brutal, as 5 wave down in wave C would be brutal beyond most bulls ability to withstand it. It could retrace all of wave B and head 1.6x wave B's magnitude further. Unfortunately, wave Bs are pretty well characterized.. they have pretty bad breadth and lots of amateur participation. I was looking for that in the last rally, and if there's signs of that, its not clear to me. Still pretty new to EW, but I try to use it as much as possible with my other stuff just to get used to it.. I think Tea is da expert.

[mss]

Many THANKS to all that answered. Best to all. mss