4 replies to this topic

[NAV]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...wave-count.html

[LarryT]

http://nav-ta.blogsp...wave-count.html

That irregular flat is my favored analysis also and we may be in the 1530s by the FOMC meeting. Early Monday is the key, support at futures 1455 +/- 3 points. If Sunday night trades down to that zone looking at going long there. It is possible the March 07 and August 07 lows was also an irregular flat and the super cycle top is still in front of us at 1605 where C = A from the 2006 low.

My alternate count is the super cycle top count of W-1 down to 1370, W-2 up to 1496 last week. Wave 1 down to 1466, 2 up to 1481 and 3 in progress working on the crash wave to 1200 this week.

[eminimee]

I'm a little more bullish... ....short term is up in the air.....I'm actually looking at NDX/Q's for clues...it's quite possible it's in a big triangle and we do have to test the lows. Posted two possibles yesterday....but this is my big count on OEX.

I think we'll see at least 747 which would be approx. that 1608 target on spx Larry then we'll see what happens...I think the bottom is in on the indices....it's a question of what shape we take out of here..that triangle on ndx could take us into late Oct/nov.

Here's the tri on the Q's in case it was missed....if it turns out to be a triangle ...it's got to be a 4th of something....and the bigger count on the Q's is fuzzy.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p34077470991&a=83876953&r=4587.png

http://stockcharts.c...9426&r=7192.png

[LarryT]

http://stockcharts.c...9426&r=7192.png
[/quote]

On the Qs count, notice the August low dropped below the Feb 07 high? That rules out any impulse wave count from the 2006 low. Odds are we have an ABC (A) from 2006 at the 7-19 high and a B in progress or the more bearish pattern would have trading since the high on 7-19-07 wave (1) down, wave (2) completed wave 1,2 completed and 3 down in progress. This week will reveal the truth as Monday starts the fall equinox/solar eclipse carsh pattern that will extend wave (1) by 1.618 so we either crash or we don't this week.

Edited by LarryT, 09 September 2007 - 07:22 AM.

[thespookyone]

Nav: Thanks for your take. Thanks to Larry and Teaparty as well. I am a strong believer in ewave, and the trades a proper count can provide. Due to my trading style, the VST is most important to me here-and, I'll need to see Mondays action to get confirmation of short term direction. I mostly trade the Q's, and their situation short term appears precarious to me. You speak about multiple counts, which I have never found troubling in the sense of the validity of ewave. The Q's have been one of the leaders on the way up, and although many claim them unimportant visa vie overall market-I feel that is far from true. Flat, and waiting for clues Monday to re-enter either end of the Q's when I am satisfied of VST direction.