8 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Yup. I think it's a Sell.

[A-ha]

This week's COT data confirms your T4.

[selecto]

That signal can be expected to resolve in the direction of the 5 sma, which turned for down Friday.

I have sells on 6 of 8 of my "internals" screens (except nasi and bp, which are pokey).

Intraday looks like a bounce Monday, but when the 60 min rolls everybody and their brother is going to sell it. (FF )

Watch the neckline:

http://stockcharts.c...6748&r=5505.png

Edited by selecto, 09 September 2007 - 12:39 PM.

[GOOSE2]

We had a G9 sell signal on Friday, fwiw

[mbradley]

I do not know if it is a sell or not, but the COT is certainly not confirming it. The Commercials where yet again net adders to longs in the index futures and are now in fact holding their largest net long positions in the history of the COT report.

[Cirrus]

The COT is off the wall. I would not rely on it at all right now. In fact, commercial positions in several instruments are beyond historical extremes. FWIW I'm just resorting to price and volume here and don't trust the commercials. Besides, the commercials were massively net long before the big correction--completely misleading.

[The End]

Adding to that thought, It makes sense to belive that the Commercials are just hedging. If they are net long the big contract it might be that they are heavy short stocks.

[selecto]

I recall a rather long and detail discussion on another board about the Commercials. I believe the conclusion was that while the commercials are usually right, they are also usually early. That fits in here, by my (present) view.

[Cirrus]

I recall a rather long and detail discussion on another board about the Commercials.
I believe the conclusion was that while the commercials are usually right, they are also
usually early. That fits in here, by my (present) view.

selecto,

Ordinarily I'd agree. What we are seeing now is beyond abnormal, especially in a historical context.

SPX big...(com)mercial net long near 4 yr high (missed correction completely)
SPX mini....com net long at 'ridiculous' levels--nearly twice historical record (missed correction)
NDX both...com basically long but within historical norms
R2K big...com long but in middle of range
R2K mini...com wildly, ridiculoulsly long (about 5 times previous historical record)

When you look beyond equitiy index futures there are several more abnormalities. Commercial activity in the 2 yr and 10yr treasuries has been well outside of historical extremes. Com activity in the Nikkei and a few currencies has been mildly abnormal. Also, their has been quite a bit more volatility in other products (commodities, etc).

I don't know what all of this means. However, using COT com data in a 'traditional' manner has been very unprofittable. Also, the extremes tell me we could see quite a bit of volatility in the markets in both direcdtions.