8 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

From Last Week's Forecasts:

Thursday
Expect a consolidation off a test of 2611 or 2619. We could have one of those gap up openings tomorrow. Hope springs eternal. Today was an inside day on higher volume building cause. In other words, they held prices up for as long as they could, as high as they could. At points there was strong selling pressure, but not as strong as that (GMTFO) huge selling pressure in the last 20 minutes yesterday... I read a lot of weakness there... especially since we were not able to get back up to those prices on higher volume today. I don't have a chart that shows the volume but the last 20 minutes of yesterday was huge... 100M on final 3 minute candle

In Fact the 2619 was tested on lighter volume on Thursday and we closed back inside the trading range at 2614. On Thursday evening on TT, there was quite a bit of bullishness and "fiery" forecasts for a rally off the Employment Report on Friday... it seems there was no way that the news could have produced a beairish result. In the face of all this bullishness I sat down and did what I always do, and tried to objectively pursue my usual path to a forecast by examining price and volume trends.

Here's what I came up with for Friday:

Earlier in the week I forecast a bearish upthrust and that is what we have. The last 2 days candles are part of an overall "magnetic trading range" that was established on 7/26 (High 2632 - Low 2563). That trading range was tested and rejected on RECORD volume on 8/8 and 8/9. These are the kind of things we look for... clear signals, price rejection on volume, the fact that this comes on all time high record volume is quite important for the long term, no matter what happens short term, as in the next few weeks... we are now in that magnetic trading range on roughly 1/2 the volume of the 8/8 and 8/9 comparison candles. When the price was exceeded on Tuesday on lighter volume, the Nasdaq retreated right back under the trading range, closing inside it at 2630. Going forward, whether or not there is a spike on the open, we're going to test the bottom end of the range.
Today we had another important signal... one that most traders will miss. Today on lighter volume Nasdaq was able to test yesterday's lows, but not the highs. This market is talking to you, I hope you are listening...
For tomorrow the bar gets lowered on the support... we should see 2582 sometime tomorrow and expect a test of the 2557 fib cluster over the next few days...

In Fact we opened at 2581, right under my support number which was a good tipoff that the lower fib support cluster at 2557 would be tested and in fact we did. Now interestingly enough, as I mentioned above, this is all about testing those 3 last days of volume in the nasdaq. 7/26, 8/8 and 8/9. On Friday we stopped short of testing the low from 8/9 by 10 cts @ 2556.59... so when I use the term "frame" this is a graphic example.

Forecast for Monday... we should get a retracement rally from here to the range area I quoted on Friday of 2591-2603. Now depending on volume we still have room to move higher from there... however I suspect 2603 will be it, and then we'll start another leg down that will test the support around 2521-2531 area...

Edited by SemiBizz, 09 September 2007 - 02:12 PM.

[n83]

"Forecast for Monday... we should get a retracement rally from here to the range area I quoted on Friday of 2591-2603. Now depending on volume we still have room to move higher from there... however I suspect 2603 will be it, and then we'll start another leg down that will test the support around 2521-2531 area..." too bad..only means more trendless or struggling-to-establish-a-trend type of scenario (understand and respect you call it as you see it)..this market is exhausting to even watch just too much

[selecto]

If one draws a H+S on an intraday Comp one can target 2468 (who do we appreciate?).

[relax]

hi there semi great stuff! what is your time frame for the move to 2.520 since 8/6 there have been 8 trading days between each bottom 8/16, 8/28, 8/7 or 10 Depending on whether you include labor day so maybe bottom tomorrow, then head for 2.600 and that takes us into the following week's rate decision so i'm thinking either we hit 2.520 before wednesday or we wait for the following week

[SemiBizz]

hi there semi
great stuff!
what is your time frame for the move to 2.520
since 8/6 there have been 8 trading days between each bottom
8/16, 8/28, 8/7 or 10 Depending on whether you include labor day
so maybe bottom tomorrow, then head for 2.600 and that takes us into the following week's rate decision
so i'm thinking either we hit 2.520 before wednesday or we wait for the following week

I'm not making any assumptions beyond just a bounce there... I think we're going to test the 8/16 low so rather than expect an automatic rally before it's due, I am leaving room for a small bounce, as high as the fib cluster 2557 off that 25XX low, but we're getting ahead of ourselves here so let me just leave it there. I am more inclined to think we are making good progress on testing that 8/16 low on light volume and that's what they need to prove a point. If it comes on heavy volume then another point is going to be made... In a nontrending market it's better to try and just daytrade it and deal with it one day at a time, one set of signals at a time. No question that this light volume decline offers mixed signals, that's why I"m probably more bullish than I should be.

Edited by SemiBizz, 09 September 2007 - 03:03 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Well, there's your strong bounce... leg 1. I'm not adding to shorts yet... we should see some retracement now to about the 2575 level before another leg up to my forecasted numbers... INTC raising numbers is no surprise... it's going to take a couple of hours for the market to remember that this isn't about the economy anyway...after all that's why the Fed is so hesitant to cut rates.... and you can throw that idea out the window here...

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 September 2007 - 08:41 AM.

[SemiBizz]

OK.. next support 2566.. this looks like the inverse of the Federal Paint job on last week's open after the Labor Day Holiday. edit: and we ticked just under it so we could be going a bit lower... also the SMH had volume at 37.65 on Friday... may pick up some SMH long there for a 2 hour trade.

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 September 2007 - 09:10 AM.

[SemiBizz]

2557 Fib cluster broken on light volume... not sold on this move just yet... like to see more volume to continue holding the rest of my QID.

[SemiBizz]

2557 fib cluster retested from below as expected 2561 test failed... added QIDs. Target 2509-11 this leg.

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 September 2007 - 01:07 PM.