15 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Down close to us, Indiana is sleepy, but doing OK.

I used to own a little farm on Laughery Creek and I sold it when the casino went in to Lawrenceburg. I figured that it would screw up the drive. All they did is make every road in the county smooth and wide. No traffic. I kinda screwed up on that one.

BTW, I was really trying to say that the state is not a monolith. N. Oh is not like S.Oh, and N Ky is not like E. Ky.

http://www.mostlivab..._acc_cinci.html

Another anecdote. I've been hearing from folks here about inflation and you've been hearing from me how I don't see it. Well, I don't shop in the big grocery stores, preferring Findlay Market and my local butcher. I was shocked yesterday at the food prices, vs. what I pay. We're talking 100% more for inferior beef relative to what my butcher charges. Chicken was better, but it was Tyson vs. the free range, Amish stuff I buy (i.e. stuff I wouldn't eat, vs. highest quality). Pork was up there a bit, but not too terrible. Fish was spotty. I've noticed increases there due to fuel prices, but locally grown trout, for instance hasn't budged in years. It was only a bit higher than what I typically pay.

If they can hold prices, then the inflation is real. My read is it's an attempt to exploit pricing power that will fail. BUT, I could be wrong. I do note that they tried to price greens (one item I buy with some regularity at the grocery) up about 50% several months ago, and we just grew our own and bought from a farmer friend. It wasn't as convenient but it tasted better. Recently, prices are right back down. I don't see much pricing power.

Mark

[Knight09]

But, Mark Remember "they" measure inflation ex. Food and Energy..... LOL!

[*JB*]

Mark -- as for Ohio

SEE -- http://www.azstarnet.com/news/200102

Concludsion of article -- "Leading the list of states with foreclosed properties was Ohio, at 3.6 percent of all loans, followed by Indiana, at 3.01 percent, and Michigan, 2.77 percent. Michigan led the list of states with new foreclosure starts, at 1 percent of outstanding loans, followed by Ohio, at 0.98 percent, and Indiana, at 0.91 percent."


However, all real estate is local. Florida is one of the worst (as a STATE) becasue of the East coast -- especially the Miami corridor. However the West coast -- especially Ft. Myers to Tampa (especially Sarasota) is holding it's own pretty well, for now at least. There is still about 1000 people moving to Florida evey day.

One can not talk about real estate with out looking the region, including jobs and "migratory" trends.

[SimpleTone]

I spoke with an Ohio real estate attorney yesterday and I got an interesting tid bit. Obviously, things are bad and her forclosure work is testing her limits of endurance. But we knew that.

The interesting thing is that only about 25% of the foreclosures are related to variable rate mortgages. The rest are due to the usual suspects, death, divorce, job loss, illness. Her read is that the northern part of Ohio has been sucking wind economically for a long time and the weakness has been masked by folks who are laid off getting lower paying work quickly, so it appears that unemployment is low, even as wages paid and incomes have fallen. She also lays partial blame at the State of Oh.'s policies toward business.

Anyway, my take is that if Ohio is any measure, we probably have a slower and more fragile economy than much of the data implies and it's not nearly so much due to sub-prime, surprisingly enough.

Mark

I can't speak to Ohio's economy, but I can point out some obviouses.

Since home ownership increased over time, the magnitude of gross foreclosures would logically increase at a faster/larger rate as a boom slowed/ended.

Many of the bad loans have a lot to do with fraud. Faulty appriasals overvalued homes. Stated income loans were the order of the day. Many of these sales would not have taken place at these prices and many would not have taken place at all for buyers who weren't really qualified.

Since there were so many new buyers, it doesn't take much to push up foreclosures, because you have no equity to fall back on, and not as much to lose...at least financially.

Unfortunately, all those RE people can't take a quick test and become an real estate attorney, like they could to be an agent or a mortgage broker.

[TechSkeptic]

When you think about inflation, don't forget the costs of education and health care, two of the most rampant contributors. Though I don't have statistics handy, I would bet that inflation in food and even energy are small in comparison.

[OEXCHAOS]

Yanno, health care costs are, I think, driven by insurance and Medicare. I do know that if you're willing to self insure for the first couple grand, the insurance becomes much more affordable and you get a whole lot more concerned about the cost of trivial care. But anywhere that you don't have the consumer exerting price discipline, you'll get inflation. Student loans are what's driving educational cost increases too. Mark