6 replies to this topic

[ogm]

The bottom chart is $WPCVE.. CBOE Equity put/call volume ratio.

If in 2003-2004 spikes above certain levels where indicating fear, now we are Permanently stuck at those highs.

Take a look at the 50 EMA ( grey line) its well above the levels considered fear just 3-4 years ago.

Red line is 9 EMA.

As the markets keep rising its getting scarier and scarier....

For comparison, when the market topped in 2000, long term averages of put/call where at 0.5

[Tor]

needs to do more work..........trend still down for now IMO. looking to short.

[ogm]

needs to do more work..........trend still down for now IMO. looking to short.

Work ? maybe, but....

Where on that chart do you see a downtrend ? Looks like an uptrend to me.

Sitting above the supporting long term EMA, that served as support for every dip on this trend and fear out the wazoo. We didn't even break March lows.

Look at the beginning of that chart in 2004. Where the put/call was back then. It was even lower in 2000 at the top. And now we once again dropped to support, but long term average of put/call in in stratosphere.

How does this dip look any different from any previous dip over the past few years ? Expect there is more bearish noise and higher levels of fear.

Edited by ogm, 11 September 2007 - 04:15 PM.

[relax]

some people are definitely listening too much to the news and suddenly experts on fundamental stuff charts are bullish - simple as that if you IT trader current situation suggests new highs within two months

[Russ]

A double top of fear...means market should rally for awhile now until fear gets back down to complacency levels again.

[atlasshrugged]

needs to do more work..........trend still down for now IMO. looking to short.

Work ? maybe, but....

Where on that chart do you see a downtrend ? Looks like an uptrend to me.

Sitting above the supporting long term EMA, that served as support for every dip on this trend and fear out the wazoo. We didn't even break March lows.

Look at the beginning of that chart in 2004. Where the put/call was back then. It was even lower in 2000 at the top. And now we once again dropped to support, but long term average of put/call in in stratosphere.

How does this dip look any different from any previous dip over the past few years ? Expect there is more bearish noise and higher levels of fear.

I agree with your assesment on the trend being up on the spx...which begs the question how you can possibly think the trend is up on GS!!! especially if you utilize the same analogy!

[ogm]

needs to do more work..........trend still down for now IMO. looking to short.

Work ? maybe, but....

Where on that chart do you see a downtrend ? Looks like an uptrend to me.

Sitting above the supporting long term EMA, that served as support for every dip on this trend and fear out the wazoo. We didn't even break March lows.

Look at the beginning of that chart in 2004. Where the put/call was back then. It was even lower in 2000 at the top. And now we once again dropped to support, but long term average of put/call in in stratosphere.

How does this dip look any different from any previous dip over the past few years ? Expect there is more bearish noise and higher levels of fear.

I agree with your assesment on the trend being up on the spx...which begs the question how you can possibly think the trend is up on GS!!! especially if you utilize the same analogy!

I posted the monthly chart on GS.. As I said, its all a matter of perspective. Monthly has bounced off the 34 EMA support.