went short ER2 781.5
Started by
greenie
, Sep 13 2007 08:36 AM
8 replies to this topic
#1
greenie
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Posted 13 September 2007 - 08:36 AM
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#2
NAV
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Posted 13 September 2007 - 12:53 PM
Where's your stop ?
#3
greenie
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Posted 13 September 2007 - 04:33 PM
Where's your stop ?
Employment gap. Trying a swing trade here. In my mental count, yesterday morning's entry was the initiation of the position. Today's repositioning (closing last evening and reshort today at higher price) added few points to it, so that I have room to move.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#4
greenie
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Posted 13 September 2007 - 04:43 PM
Also wanted to add that here is how I rank the indices that I track.
NDX - strongest, it recovered most of its losses from July high.
SPX - next strongest. It recovered most of losses from Aug high.
XBD, DJR, MID - average. Making higher highs and lows from Aug bottom within a trading range.
RUT, BKX - weak. Made lower low during last ST swing.
Therefore, I am short ER2 and expected it not to close the employment friday gap. Same with BKX.
XBD, DJR closed employment gap partly. NDX did it first, and SPX today.
Also to note that today SOX was negative. SOX < NDX < SPX.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#5
NAV
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Posted 14 September 2007 - 02:29 AM
Also wanted to add that here is how I rank the indices that I track.
NDX - strongest, it recovered most of its losses from July high.
SPX - next strongest. It recovered most of losses from Aug high.
XBD, DJR, MID - average. Making higher highs and lows from Aug bottom within a trading range.
RUT, BKX - weak. Made lower low during last ST swing.
Therefore, I am short ER2 and expected it not to close the employment friday gap. Same with BKX.
XBD, DJR closed employment gap partly. NDX did it first, and SPX today.
Also to note that today SOX was negative. SOX < NDX < SPX.
Without a doubt RUT is the weakest here.
#6
greenie
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Posted 14 September 2007 - 07:22 AM
NAV, Did not get to see your comment on the other thread. I am trying to position myself for a LT top in RUT, into which I will add time to time as the position gains. We were very close to that time, but not right there. So, I was collecting small points here and there by daytrading so that I can make a wide stop. I still think daytrading is unproductive to the society, and hope I do not have to do it for too long 
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#7
NAV
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Posted 14 September 2007 - 12:52 PM
NAV, Did not get to see your comment on the other thread. I am trying to position myself for a LT top in RUT, into which I will add time to time as the position gains. We were very close to that time, but not right there. So, I was collecting small points here and there by daytrading so that I can make a wide stop. I still think daytrading is unproductive to the society, and hope I do not have to do it for too long
To put a wide enough stop to catch a LT top, i think you need to daytrade for a long long long time
#8
greenie
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Posted 14 September 2007 - 01:20 PM
To put a wide enough stop to catch a LT top, i think you need to daytrade for a long long long time
About 3-4 days maybe. Actually I was done 1 week back, but then, being inexperienced with futures, I did something silly and lost my position.
I am applying the same method that I used to pin down DJR. I bought loads of SRS at around 74-76. If you look at DJR during March-May rally in SPX, DJR was within a range, while SPX, NDX, MID, RUT all marched above. This implied that the REITs are tremendous oversupply. This was also consistent with the fundamental and sentiment pictures I had (all posted beforehand in technicalwatch board). Once I found my support and resistances, all I had to do was to find when SPX got weaker and then scale into SRS at resistance points of DJR.
If you look at RUT for last one month, it is behaving similarly as DJR did during March-May. Only complication now is that I am playing with futures (==more leverage).....but let's see how things turn out. Yesterday's action suggested that RUT is almost cooked. It was weak in the morning, and then all of a sudden started to rally non-stop, while NDX was stalled. This looked like classic 'kill the shorts before going down' rally. I saw that in DJR many times. So, I think yesterday's high is possibly a safe stop for LT position - TWT.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#9
DraggdOut
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Posted 14 September 2007 - 06:55 PM
it is a dangerous mindset to fall into, but one might almost be inclined to think that the market is tipping the fed's hand.
otherwise, why would the interest rate/leverage sensitive parties (small caps, real estate, banks, utilities) be underperforming so noticeably...
I also do not think it is a coincidence that they brought SPX cash right up underneath the TL that had been dictating support since the higher low of July '06. It broke down July '07 and has not recovered, only back-kissed.
There are a lot of trend line set-ups that are quite telling at the moment.
Edited by DraggdOut, 14 September 2007 - 06:56 PM.
