5 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

And theres STILL a crapload of bears.. No one's more bearish than I am. I'm the resident bear after Hayrake left. But just because I'm bearish all the time doesn't mean I can't go long or think the market can't go up. Fact #1: The key pivot point where everyone's been selling, SPX 1484, has now been reached, and every attempt for the past few weeks have been met with buying. This can only mean that the bears are nearly out of money. Once 1484 gets busted, you will see massive short covering. Fact #2: We have broken the 50MA for the second time, and usually after a second test and pass of the 50MA after a big decline, everyone tends to pile on (ie the money managers) Fact #3: We are still in an up trend, defined by higher highs, higher lows Fact #4: Yesterday was close to 30% fully short people. The day before was close to 30% fully short people. And the day before. All while the market was working its way up. You get that many fully short people with the bulls dipping into their pockets (ie them holding losing positions), its an accident waiting to happen. And today theres a ton of fully short people and bears crowing for victory Fact #5: I'm following some fractals here, and it says more upside going into Fed and perhaps a bit beyond. All the fractals that says we should've tanked a few days ago obviously fell apart. Fact #6: Don't take me for a raging bull, I'm a bull for a week, and then I'll take a leisurely short side once many of you start screaming for higher prices or capitulate and think twice before shorting again. Tonight they're doing as expected.. what appears to be a gap down. I feel quite confident in saying there will be a gap UP. As always, just one trader's opinion.

[rightside]

I agree on the gap up...seems logical to catch the stops and push this higher. Infact, this is what I am watching/waiting for. Bears - beware! Markets makers by instruction are trained not feed you. You must think like a criminal, because if you don't "you" will be eaten. Stops visable just above will "likely" be liquidated tomorrow and perhaps another gap on Monday. Now understand, it is approaching "time" to start our decent into the lows of the year, reached in 2wks maybe 3. I am longing to go long at the next low! I will be short into it and waiting with baited breath to go long the next low. As always tenaciously guard your equity! RS

[ogm]

Look at these polls. 42% fully short. 63% bearish. This is nuts.

[dcengr]

Look at these polls.

42% fully short. 63% bearish.

This is nuts.

This ain't nuts. Nuts will be in about a weeks time, you're going to see like 60% fully long people. People tend to swing wildly from one extreme to another.

If they start taking losses on fully short positions, they'll try and make it up by going fully long after they get scorched out, thinking the uptrend has started.

My take is that this is what will happen, and likely the case for a top a bit more than a week from now. But again, I'll wait for data that shows this will happen.

[ogm]

Look at these polls.

42% fully short. 63% bearish.

This is nuts.

This ain't nuts. Nuts will be in about a weeks time, you're going to see like 60% fully long people. People tend to swing wildly from one extreme to another.

If they start taking losses on fully short positions, they'll try and make it up by going fully long after they get scorched out, thinking the uptrend has started.

My take is that this is what will happen, and likely the case for a top a bit more than a week from now. But again, I'll wait for data that shows this will happen.

I'll believe it when I'll see it
So far all I see is people shorting the uptrend with a vengeance.
Every time it looks like its going to dip bears are piling on.

Even Pisani on CNBC today commented several times how everyone on the floor and on the street is bearish. And one talking head after another are preaching more downside.

There is a lot of underinvested people out there. All crowded into bonds.That is not even considering the scores of bears hanging upside down.

Edited by ogm, 13 September 2007 - 10:03 PM.

[nicolasillo]

gap down is cos of Northen Rock in the UK
http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

Look at these polls.

42% fully short. 63% bearish.

This is nuts.

This ain't nuts. Nuts will be in about a weeks time, you're going to see like 60% fully long people. People tend to swing wildly from one extreme to another.

If they start taking losses on fully short positions, they'll try and make it up by going fully long after they get scorched out, thinking the uptrend has started.

My take is that this is what will happen, and likely the case for a top a bit more than a week from now. But again, I'll wait for data that shows this will happen.

I'll believe it when I'll see it
So far all I see is people shorting the uptrend with a vengeance.
Every time it looks like its going to dip bears are piling on.

Even Pisani on CNBC today commented several times how everyone on the floor and on the street is bearish. And one talking head after another are preaching more downside.

There is a lot of underinvested people out there. All crowded into bonds.That is not even considering the scores of bears hanging upside down.

Edited by nicolasillo, 14 September 2007 - 04:14 AM.