14 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Fib, this is like June 2004, cummulative new highs vs new lows, cummulative advancers vs decliners, the price pattern, it is like an exact match. There will be an attempt to move higher from here, but I also doubt strongly that there will not be another aftershock into October. Certainly, a disappointment over the Fed decision after an initial rally attempt for a day or two might lead to July 2004. If the Fed lowers, they will not say they are now in a lowering campaign, they've been very reluctant to lower to this far, if they don't, well... Both of them are short term catalysts to the upside, but that's about it...

[Iblayz]

If the Fed does nothing the market will croak because they are expecting and even demanding that the Fed do something. Predicting (and trading on it in advance) what happens in response to what the Fed does is a dangerous game that can lead to big losses for those on the wrong side of the trade. Now does the market always hold a rally after the first cut? So if I'm unsure why not wait it out until the dust has settled?

[blustar]

My work suggests that the FED decision will be very disappointing and we plummet to just above the August low by Thurs or Fri this coming week. I believe it will be a very good buying opp into Oct 18 (to new highs) and then down we go into the 18 month low of Dec 2007, perhaps as low as the 1175 area SPX.

[JAP]

My work suggests that the FED decision will be very disappointing and we plummet to just above the August low by Thurs or Fri this coming week. I believe it will be a very good buying opp into Oct 18 (to new highs) and then down we go into the 18 month low of Dec 2007, perhaps as low as the 1175 area SPX.

If you care to post or discuss your "work", please feel free to do so

[pdx5]

The Fed should start a new string of rate cuts, ending near 1% as the maestro Greenspan did. We need to start another credit bubble, since the current bubble has already lost some air. A bigger bubble will be beneficial to all those losing jobs in the housing industry. <end of sarcasm> And by the way I see near ZERO probability of deflation when economy of China is on track to be bigger than US in just 15 years. They are creating a heckuva lot of consumers internally, so they won't be as dependent on the US homeowners using the house ATM. Just think, the middle class of India alone is bigger than the adult population of United States. No chance of deflation for atleast a decade or two.

Edited by pdx5, 14 September 2007 - 10:37 PM.