4 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

Those are dramatic words. Some big economist on Wallstreet basically said we are doomed if the Fed doesn't cut. Its funny how other people think the cut won't matter. I would say its a 99% chance they won't raise under these circumstances. Its amazing how these economists try to stir up the masses or Jawbone the Fed. Which it is I have no idea. I would think the market has it priced in, so any cut might produce a bounce, but no cut would be more interesting. If he waited, you might learn a lot from seeing the market action. If he raised I bet we would put a good bottom in. JMHO.

[Islander]

[quote name='nimblebear' date='Sep 14 2007, 12:11 PM' post='315051'


Its funny how other people think the cut won't matter.

[/quote]

They are essentially correct, the lag time will mean no change for months. But, the emotional signal that the Fed can be "rolled" will drive the market up. It will drive PM up and the US$ down. The FED knows this and they sense there is no return one they start.

I think the cut is a critical signal - tradeable and terrible public policy. Islander.

[JAP]

Everyone is at least expecting 1/4 point cut, which IMO is already priced into the market. The FED may ignore all the "jawboning" and surprise everyone by not cutting the rate. That would cause quite a stir indeed.

[ed rader]

Everyone is at least expecting 1/4 point cut, which IMO is already priced into the market.

The FED may ignore all the "jawboning" and surprise everyone by not cutting the rate. That would cause quite a stir indeed.

it would certainly send the signal that "the bubble stops here" !

ed rader

[Sentient Being]

I think some of the lenders are being held up already by the idea that rates cuts are coming and will save them. This quarter reporting could lead to some dramatic declines. A no-rate-cut might start the party off.