7 replies to this topic

[chichi2]

I do not have the time or patience to teach all i know of using the MCO small chg TA. I will include a little history i wrote in 2003. Note first there is a specific MCO to go with each Index, Decision Pt calculates the MCO for most Indices. NYMO goes with NYA ( not SPX ) NAMO goes with Nasdaq

Personally i find it quite helpful knowing that a big move is coming. Usually i would have not thought of Nasdaq making a big move as it did on Friday, reason for not thinking so is we have that potential big action next Tuesday, so as someone noted on Thursdays action, it was boring, so i for one did not expect a major down and reveral bottom in Nasdaq to be formed Friday. But enough of how i personally used it this week, as the small chg MCO for Nasdaq was evident to be coming to me as i watch Thursday, so i sold my Calls near close. Watched the downer on Friday and could have rebot them then for an additional nice profit.

Here is a little history. you will see, after i first was using the MCO small chg, i then started also using Decision Pt to get the confirmations of more MCO calculations. I also did not believe, so i tested the idea over and over, some of which i kept in detail. I then tried in those earlier days to only use MCO small chgs to try to predict the markets moves. I was not able to, however, with using other TA can in many case do a good job of predicting the direction, so i tend to play when i feel my risk/knowledge is best. Otherwise i try not to play for the big move, just like anyone who trades does money management. Small chg MCO is just one more possible tool. Right now it does a very obvious thing, it reminds us of the markets we are in are in general high Volatility markets, so MajorMarket moves come quite often. Just get a boring time, and let the MCO small chg wake you up sometime, and see how valuable it can be.

One thing i found doing the studys of MCO small chgs, it got me very close to the markets in reanalysis, i watched how the actions were forming, just like you do when we daytrade. i learned a lot doing it. these were not just stat studies, these were indepth studies trying to see if when on signal was given, would a MM happen, would another index MM too, would these happen in the same day, would it take next day or ??, note the original authors of the TA gave only hints to their knowledge or studies. so i did not believe them, nor did i have any indepth essays on it.

Here is a little history, states in the 1970s which predates my work with it, and a little of what i did in 1999-2004 timeframe, i was on several boards over that span, most being documented on ihub and raging bull.
(i see my data files would take some time to convert to fixed format so they are more intelligible. i have the original files on iHub which are available in fixed format from 2003, the files on RagingBull if they still exist, would not be so easy to find, but they were recorded on the space called DrBob as I inherited that space sometime back in 1999-2002


Posted by: chichi2
In reply to: chichi2 who wrote msg# 6378 Date:12/31/2003 11:47:18 AM
Post #of 25022

Chi2: MCO smallchg Signals. ForThoseWhoEnjoyHistory.

For non-Technicians this will be more than you need, but some like to read about it.

Interesting old charts... for todays signal too, we have broken above old peak.
http://www.traders-t...t...&folderid=1

click on "replied to" for my post reply to "be"

HERE IS HOW MUCH OF TA IDEAS ARE PASSED ON...

From DrBob... to me.

The TA guy who taught this to me was Gene Morgan, who was a friend of Gerald McClellan in the mid 70's and 80's. Morgan was on KWHY TV in LA in the 70's and 80's, and I watched him all the time, and he came up with that observation about a change 5 or less resulting in large moves w/in 4
sessions.

Works most of the time, but doesn't tell you which direction.


From Fib_1618...

'where or how are you seeing Wilshire Breadth MCO?'

You can see the Wilshire along with the NDX, SPX, OEX and Dow MCO's at Decision Point (something I suggested to Carl back in 2000) - both in breadth and volume.

'and on what basis are you calling it to come within 2 sessions?'

The first person to bring this to my attention was Ken Gammage back in the late 70's - and it has had this high consistency factor for as long as I have been using the MCO. The 5 point change works best with the traditional NYSE - while the 4 point change works best with the ratio adjusted NYSE - and the rest of the charts shown at DP though the overall predictive value of this remains with the broader index'.

Fib

From: fib_1618

Chi2 did an emperical analysis of all Nas and NYSE MCO smallchg from March 2003 to July 2003

objective to determine if it was a good signal that is it did fulfill what its objective... an MM within 2 to 4 days.
I concluded it did. However, i did try to see if i could consistently determine its direction, and found i could not do better than 50% by enough to say i could do it.

The details of this study were reported in several posts on RB board, i suspect they are still there. But i have not looked for them. The board was... http://ragingbull.ly.......B&newpost=1


For the period of my study analysis March 2003 to July 2003, i reported, on that RB board, every signal and its results, in Nasdaq and in NYSE. (also see bottom of this post, where i am attempting to repost it.) http://ragingbull.ly.......&read=86914

Since that study, we got a patchs of signals that did not yield any MMs. My recall mind is not working well enough today to say whether that was in September or October. So i have not called some since then.

The MM size was bigger back in time than it has been in 2003. This is a phenomena of the markets. Less volatility in the MCOs can be seen by the lack of their height of peaks, either on the downside or the upside. See the MCO NAMO and NYMO charts in yesterday's MCO smallchg call. There are two longer term charts and two near term charts. http://www.investors...sage_id=2026301

========================================================
========================================================
RELATED TECHNICAL INFO, THAT are thoughts on
McClellan Summation Index (the Oscillator dailies are added together to create the Summation Index)

fib1618: McClellan: MCO and MCSUM Responses
Jun15 9pm
----------------------------
MCO= McClellan Oscillator
MCSUM= McClellan Summation Index
IT= Intermediate Trend

McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html
=======================

Don's questions in italics:

"From a mathematical standpoint, what are the probabilities that the MCSUM has peaked for the entire IT? In other words, is the momentum built into the 5% and 10% lines moving in the direction they are very likely to prevent new MCSUM highs, barring some unlikely occurrence? Would you say it's 70%, 80%, 90% likely that it's peaked?"

Maybe an explanation about how I use the Oscillator, the components that make up the Oscillator, and the Summation Index, would help in answering some of your questions - and I will use an analogy that I think tends to make the most sense.

You're in the space shuttle and about to blast off. The countdown begins - and you lift off.

On your 'dashboard' there are three instruments that measure the fuel (money) you're using in accomplishing your task from going from earth to an orbital point above the planet. One instrument measures the rate of consumption in which you're using this fuel (the components) - one tells you how fast you're going with this present rate of consumption of this fuel (the Oscillator) - and the last one gives you the path (or trajectory) in which this fuel is propelling you (the Summation Index).

As you continue to climb higher, you will tend not to use as much fuel to escape the gravitational pull of the earth - though the momentum of the initial fuel expended continues to drive you forward until either you hit an immovable object or you finally lose the forward motion (momentum) in which this fuel has sent you on your quest (Newton's law). The Summation Index shows you (in a quick visual form) what the outcome of what the components and the Oscillator itself have been able to generate...with the further the separation of the postings in which you see showing you the rate in which you are traveling based on the fuel that is being used - and the overall path in which all of this fuel is taking you.

After looking over your indicators, you decide that you have now expended enough fuel to reach your ultimate destination - so you shut down your engines (which the Oscillator will confirm by going back down through the zero line and your rate of consumption will cease). Initially, when you shut down your engines, the force of gravity then takes over and starts pulling on your forward momentum and your path will either degrade a little (Summation ledges or fish hook patterns) - or it may degrade alot - depending on how close you are to the planet (the Summation Index zero line) when this fuel is taken away.

Now that you have an idea of how I look at these tools - and maybe a better picture of what these tools are all about - here are some of the things that are in play here.

We have used a tremendous amount of fuel (as represented by the components) to escape the heavy gravitational pull of the earth (in the form of deflationary tendencies) to get where we are today. In theory, there is only so much fuel available to use on any one mission to get to a point in reaching your goal objective AND have any backup fuel that maybe needed for any course corrections in the future. Because of all the fuel expended for such a long period of time - this expenditure of fuel used has been reflected in the Oscillator as to the amount of acceleration thats been created (both in speed and time)- and in the process of taking us to these high Summation levels. Historically speaking - we have basically used more fuel that was necessary on past shuttle missions - and because of this - we have now gone to a level not seen before (new all time highs). Another way to look at this is that the computers on the shuttle not only didn't shut down the engines when it was necessary - but it actually used more fuel that was necessary on top of that - and in the process - has left us with a lower percentage of initial fuel being available for us to use later on.

So to answer your question directly Don - in the past the Summation Index would tend to make one more course correctional high to put your shuttle into proper orbit. However, we have already overshot our intial flight plan already - so it would make more sense that the highs being made right now will be the intermediate highs - and maybe even the historical highs for some years to come. Also keep in mind that the precious fuel that you do have left needs to be used for emergency purposes only (as to push the shuttle into a higher orbit if it gets too close to the atmosphere) - that is unless ground control decides to send up another shuttle with additional fuel (or liquidity) to replenish the amount that was lost with the 'malfunction' of the engines.

"It looks to me like when past 1500+ MCSUM's have turned down:

A. The market usually had a sideways move for a couple of weeks, or in other cases a mild pullback of a couple of weeks. At the extremes, in one case the market actually peaked right then (but this was after doubling in the fall of 1932), in another had a rather protracted sideways action before resuming uptrend, and in another yet case, barley missed a beat, but kept on climbing.

B. In all cases except the '32 cited above, it moved anywhere from another half again what it had moved so far, to thrice again what it had moved thus far before any IT correction."

With the over abundance of limited fuel that has already been used - I would probably not expect a higher Summation reading unless we get additional fuel for the journey - or the mission has been extended in needing more time to complete itself (which with present monetary policy we might just get this fuel - but I have to go on the assumption that this is all we will have to work with based on historical standards). Since we are so far above the earth (the Summation Index zero line) - and less fuel will now be needed to keep us at levels needed to sustain our orbit - any further fuel expenditures should be at lower Summation levels - but any fuel used in the future will allow price to move more easily in the directional path of the overall Summation Index (which in this case is up) because gravity is not so much an issue now as it was when we lifted off the ground.

"Beyond about this point in the cycle, the market starts to get rather 'heady', with some of the leadership stocks making huge moves in short periods. But at the same time, the market gets more and more selective, so that a rising tide does NOT lift all boats."

Since we have had such an over abundance of fuel (money) entering a market place that has a limited amount of participants - the initial fuel that we just saw expended has fanned out to many more stocks than has been usual in the past - and this is reflected in the broader market indices leading the charge to the upside - while the better known - lesser component index' - have lagged because of all this fuel being distributed over a broader range. As the Summation declines - and then again moves up - there will be less fuel to go around - and because of this - any fuel used in the future will tend to go to the stocks that mean the most to the majority to gauge market activity (the SPX and OEX as two examples). This would mean, of course, that as the Summation Index comes closer and closer to earth (the zero line) - less and less stocks will participate as the initial rising tide has now pulled back leaving only those stocks that are keys to keeping the market going in the same initial direction buoyant - until all of the liquidity is gone - and gravity brings the shuttle back to earth - and since there is no more fuel to continue higher - this is when we see broader overall corrections like we just saw over the last 3 years.


I hope I have addressed your questions adequately, and in a way that makes sense, and not too repetitive.

Fib

========================
McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html


==========================================================
==========================================================
Chi2: Analysis of McClellan Oscillator Signals,
I began just before the beginning of the Rally,
on March 7 and covered the period to July 25.

I broke the analysis into Three (3) Sections.

This the First Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NAS Oscillator Signals.

There were 36 McClellan Nasdaq Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 17 ended in Up Sessions,
9 ended in Down Sessions. There was also one potential
entry after open and it ended also in a Down Session.

So in sum, there were 27 or 26 ending action points,
dependent on how you count the extra one.

The McClellan NASDAQ Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal Nasdaq ConsumatedDate Oscill Date DaysAft COMPQ NDX`Mar 5 +2.6 Mar 10 3 -26 -22Mar 7 +1.28 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 11 +2.00 Mar 13 2 +61 +59Mar 12 -4.36 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 14 -0.08 Mar 17 1 +52 +46Mar 18 +4.43 Mar 24 4 -51 -45Mar 19 -0.3 ditto 3 ditto dittoMar 20 +3.45 ditto 2 ditto dittoMar 27 -0.74 Mar 31 2 -28 -28Mar 28 -4.4 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +48 +40 Apr 3 -4.88 Apr 7 2 + 6 + 6 <MMaftOpenDitto Apr 9 4 -26 -22 Apr 10 +0.06 Apr 14 2 +26 +22Apr 11 -3.99 ditto 1 ditto dittoApr 15 +3.34 Apr 17 2 +30 +28Apr 21 -1.72 Apr 22 1 +27 +21Apr 23 +4.85 Apr 25 2 -22 -24Ditto Apr 28 3 +27 +23 Apr 29 -2.87 May 2 3 +30 +23Apr 30 +0.43 ditto 2 ditto dittoMay 1 -1.77 ditto 1 ditto dittoMay 5 -1.38 May 9 4 +30 +24May 6 -1.38 ditto 3 ditto dittoMay 15 +2.98 May 19 2 -46 -42May 20 -3.26 May 27 4 +46 +42May 28 +2.5 May 30 2 +21 +16May 29 +1.74 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Jun 4 4 +31 +26Jun 5 +1.99 Jun 9 2 -23 -17Jun 11 +3.24 Jun 16 3 +40 +37Jun 12 -4.00 ditto 2 ditto dittoJun 17 -2.56 Jun 19 2 -28 -22Jun 20 -1.29 Jun 23 1 -34 -23Jun 24 +4.89 Jun 26 2 +31 +26Jun 27 -3.99 Jul 2 3 +38 +28Jun 30 +0.22 ditto 2 ditto dittoJul 1 +3.84 ditto 1 ditto ditto Ditto Jul 7 3 +57 +50 Jul 9 +0.70 Jul 10 1 -31 -26.5Jul 24 +2.34 Jul 25 1 +29 +24

`
`

==============================================
This the Second Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals.
`
There were 27 McClellan NYSE Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 16 ended in Up Sessions,
10 ended in Down Sessions.

The McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal NYSE Consumated DOWDate Oscill Date DaysAft `Mar 5 +4.6 Mar 10 3 -171Mar 11 -3.99 Mar 13 2 +269Mar 12 -2.78 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 17 3 +282Mar 18 +1.07 Mar 21 3 +235Mar 19 +0.85 ditto 2 dittoMar 20 +4.54 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 24 1 -307Mar 27 +1.84 Mar 31 2 -153Mar 28 +0.48 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +215 Apr 4 -0.85 Apr 9 4 -100Apr 10 +4.5 Apr 14 2 +147Apr 11 -4.7 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 16 3 -144Apr 21 -3.76 Apr 22 1 +156Apr 23 -0.11 Apr 25 2 -133Ditto Apr 28 3 +165 Apr 29 -2.11 May 2 3 +128Apr 30 +1.42 ditto 2 ditto May 5 -4.37 May 9 4 +113No Call ====== May 12 +122 May 15 +3.34 May 19 2 -185May 20 +1.99 May 27 4 +179May 28 -1.86 May 30 2 +139Jun 2 +2.84 Jun 4 2 +116Jun 5 -1.92 Jun 9 2 -82Jun 12 +3.24 Jun 16 2 +201Jun 20 -3.06 Jun 23 1 -127Jun 27 -2.7 Jul 2 3 +103Jun 30 +2.1 ditto 2 dittoJul 8 +1.85 Jul 10 1 -120Jul 24 +2.3 Jul 25 1 +172 ``


These are not easy to pre-call their direction, but not impossible.
`
`
I COULD NOT FIND THE COMBINED ACTION, IE SECTION III, I MAY NOT HAVE WRITTEN IT INTO THE RAGING BULL AS A POST.

[gannman]

I do not have the time or patience to teach all i know of using the MCO small chg TA. I will include a little history i wrote in 2003. Note first there is a specific MCO to go with each Index, Decision Pt calculates the MCO for most Indices. NYMO goes with NYA ( not SPX ) NAMO goes with Nasdaq

Personally i find it quite helpful knowing that a big move is coming. Usually i would have not thought of Nasdaq making a big move as it did on Friday, reason for not thinking so is we have that potential big action next Tuesday, so as someone noted on Thursdays action, it was boring, so i for one did not expect a major down and reveral bottom in Nasdaq to be formed Friday. But enough of how i personally used it this week, as the small chg MCO for Nasdaq was evident to be coming to me as i watch Thursday, so i sold my Calls near close. Watched the downer on Friday and could have rebot them then for an additional nice profit.

Here is a little history. you will see, after i first was using the MCO small chg, i then started also using Decision Pt to get the confirmations of more MCO calculations. I also did not believe, so i tested the idea over and over, some of which i kept in detail. I then tried in those earlier days to only use MCO small chgs to try to predict the markets moves. I was not able to, however, with using other TA can in many case do a good job of predicting the direction, so i tend to play when i feel my risk/knowledge is best. Otherwise i try not to play for the big move, just like anyone who trades does money management. Small chg MCO is just one more possible tool. Right now it does a very obvious thing, it reminds us of the markets we are in are in general high Volatility markets, so MajorMarket moves come quite often. Just get a boring time, and let the MCO small chg wake you up sometime, and see how valuable it can be.

One thing i found doing the studys of MCO small chgs, it got me very close to the markets in reanalysis, i watched how the actions were forming, just like you do when we daytrade. i learned a lot doing it. these were not just stat studies, these were indepth studies trying to see if when on signal was given, would a MM happen, would another index MM too, would these happen in the same day, would it take next day or ??, note the original authors of the TA gave only hints to their knowledge or studies. so i did not believe them, nor did i have any indepth essays on it.

Here is a little history, states in the 1970s which predates my work with it, and a little of what i did in 1999-2004 timeframe, i was on several boards over that span, most being documented on ihub and raging bull.
(i see my data files would take some time to convert to fixed format so they are more intelligible. i have the original files on iHub which are available in fixed format from 2003, the files on RagingBull if they still exist, would not be so easy to find, but they were recorded on the space called DrBob as I inherited that space sometime back in 1999-2002


Posted by: chichi2
In reply to: chichi2 who wrote msg# 6378 Date:12/31/2003 11:47:18 AM
Post #of 25022

Chi2: MCO smallchg Signals. ForThoseWhoEnjoyHistory.

For non-Technicians this will be more than you need, but some like to read about it.

Interesting old charts... for todays signal too, we have broken above old peak.
http://www.traders-t...t...&folderid=1

click on "replied to" for my post reply to "be"

HERE IS HOW MUCH OF TA IDEAS ARE PASSED ON...

From DrBob... to me.

The TA guy who taught this to me was Gene Morgan, who was a friend of Gerald McClellan in the mid 70's and 80's. Morgan was on KWHY TV in LA in the 70's and 80's, and I watched him all the time, and he came up with that observation about a change 5 or less resulting in large moves w/in 4
sessions.

Works most of the time, but doesn't tell you which direction.


From Fib_1618...

'where or how are you seeing Wilshire Breadth MCO?'

You can see the Wilshire along with the NDX, SPX, OEX and Dow MCO's at Decision Point (something I suggested to Carl back in 2000) - both in breadth and volume.

'and on what basis are you calling it to come within 2 sessions?'

The first person to bring this to my attention was Ken Gammage back in the late 70's - and it has had this high consistency factor for as long as I have been using the MCO. The 5 point change works best with the traditional NYSE - while the 4 point change works best with the ratio adjusted NYSE - and the rest of the charts shown at DP though the overall predictive value of this remains with the broader index'.

Fib

From: fib_1618

Chi2 did an emperical analysis of all Nas and NYSE MCO smallchg from March 2003 to July 2003

objective to determine if it was a good signal that is it did fulfill what its objective... an MM within 2 to 4 days.
I concluded it did. However, i did try to see if i could consistently determine its direction, and found i could not do better than 50% by enough to say i could do it.

The details of this study were reported in several posts on RB board, i suspect they are still there. But i have not looked for them. The board was... http://ragingbull.ly.......B&newpost=1


For the period of my study analysis March 2003 to July 2003, i reported, on that RB board, every signal and its results, in Nasdaq and in NYSE. (also see bottom of this post, where i am attempting to repost it.) http://ragingbull.ly.......&read=86914

Since that study, we got a patchs of signals that did not yield any MMs. My recall mind is not working well enough today to say whether that was in September or October. So i have not called some since then.

The MM size was bigger back in time than it has been in 2003. This is a phenomena of the markets. Less volatility in the MCOs can be seen by the lack of their height of peaks, either on the downside or the upside. See the MCO NAMO and NYMO charts in yesterday's MCO smallchg call. There are two longer term charts and two near term charts. http://www.investors...sage_id=2026301

========================================================
========================================================
RELATED TECHNICAL INFO, THAT are thoughts on
McClellan Summation Index (the Oscillator dailies are added together to create the Summation Index)

fib1618: McClellan: MCO and MCSUM Responses
Jun15 9pm
----------------------------
MCO= McClellan Oscillator
MCSUM= McClellan Summation Index
IT= Intermediate Trend

McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html
=======================

Don's questions in italics:

"From a mathematical standpoint, what are the probabilities that the MCSUM has peaked for the entire IT? In other words, is the momentum built into the 5% and 10% lines moving in the direction they are very likely to prevent new MCSUM highs, barring some unlikely occurrence? Would you say it's 70%, 80%, 90% likely that it's peaked?"

Maybe an explanation about how I use the Oscillator, the components that make up the Oscillator, and the Summation Index, would help in answering some of your questions - and I will use an analogy that I think tends to make the most sense.

You're in the space shuttle and about to blast off. The countdown begins - and you lift off.

On your 'dashboard' there are three instruments that measure the fuel (money) you're using in accomplishing your task from going from earth to an orbital point above the planet. One instrument measures the rate of consumption in which you're using this fuel (the components) - one tells you how fast you're going with this present rate of consumption of this fuel (the Oscillator) - and the last one gives you the path (or trajectory) in which this fuel is propelling you (the Summation Index).

As you continue to climb higher, you will tend not to use as much fuel to escape the gravitational pull of the earth - though the momentum of the initial fuel expended continues to drive you forward until either you hit an immovable object or you finally lose the forward motion (momentum) in which this fuel has sent you on your quest (Newton's law). The Summation Index shows you (in a quick visual form) what the outcome of what the components and the Oscillator itself have been able to generate...with the further the separation of the postings in which you see showing you the rate in which you are traveling based on the fuel that is being used - and the overall path in which all of this fuel is taking you.

After looking over your indicators, you decide that you have now expended enough fuel to reach your ultimate destination - so you shut down your engines (which the Oscillator will confirm by going back down through the zero line and your rate of consumption will cease). Initially, when you shut down your engines, the force of gravity then takes over and starts pulling on your forward momentum and your path will either degrade a little (Summation ledges or fish hook patterns) - or it may degrade alot - depending on how close you are to the planet (the Summation Index zero line) when this fuel is taken away.

Now that you have an idea of how I look at these tools - and maybe a better picture of what these tools are all about - here are some of the things that are in play here.

We have used a tremendous amount of fuel (as represented by the components) to escape the heavy gravitational pull of the earth (in the form of deflationary tendencies) to get where we are today. In theory, there is only so much fuel available to use on any one mission to get to a point in reaching your goal objective AND have any backup fuel that maybe needed for any course corrections in the future. Because of all the fuel expended for such a long period of time - this expenditure of fuel used has been reflected in the Oscillator as to the amount of acceleration thats been created (both in speed and time)- and in the process of taking us to these high Summation levels. Historically speaking - we have basically used more fuel that was necessary on past shuttle missions - and because of this - we have now gone to a level not seen before (new all time highs). Another way to look at this is that the computers on the shuttle not only didn't shut down the engines when it was necessary - but it actually used more fuel that was necessary on top of that - and in the process - has left us with a lower percentage of initial fuel being available for us to use later on.

So to answer your question directly Don - in the past the Summation Index would tend to make one more course correctional high to put your shuttle into proper orbit. However, we have already overshot our intial flight plan already - so it would make more sense that the highs being made right now will be the intermediate highs - and maybe even the historical highs for some years to come. Also keep in mind that the precious fuel that you do have left needs to be used for emergency purposes only (as to push the shuttle into a higher orbit if it gets too close to the atmosphere) - that is unless ground control decides to send up another shuttle with additional fuel (or liquidity) to replenish the amount that was lost with the 'malfunction' of the engines.

"It looks to me like when past 1500+ MCSUM's have turned down:

A. The market usually had a sideways move for a couple of weeks, or in other cases a mild pullback of a couple of weeks. At the extremes, in one case the market actually peaked right then (but this was after doubling in the fall of 1932), in another had a rather protracted sideways action before resuming uptrend, and in another yet case, barley missed a beat, but kept on climbing.

B. In all cases except the '32 cited above, it moved anywhere from another half again what it had moved so far, to thrice again what it had moved thus far before any IT correction."

With the over abundance of limited fuel that has already been used - I would probably not expect a higher Summation reading unless we get additional fuel for the journey - or the mission has been extended in needing more time to complete itself (which with present monetary policy we might just get this fuel - but I have to go on the assumption that this is all we will have to work with based on historical standards). Since we are so far above the earth (the Summation Index zero line) - and less fuel will now be needed to keep us at levels needed to sustain our orbit - any further fuel expenditures should be at lower Summation levels - but any fuel used in the future will allow price to move more easily in the directional path of the overall Summation Index (which in this case is up) because gravity is not so much an issue now as it was when we lifted off the ground.

"Beyond about this point in the cycle, the market starts to get rather 'heady', with some of the leadership stocks making huge moves in short periods. But at the same time, the market gets more and more selective, so that a rising tide does NOT lift all boats."

Since we have had such an over abundance of fuel (money) entering a market place that has a limited amount of participants - the initial fuel that we just saw expended has fanned out to many more stocks than has been usual in the past - and this is reflected in the broader market indices leading the charge to the upside - while the better known - lesser component index' - have lagged because of all this fuel being distributed over a broader range. As the Summation declines - and then again moves up - there will be less fuel to go around - and because of this - any fuel used in the future will tend to go to the stocks that mean the most to the majority to gauge market activity (the SPX and OEX as two examples). This would mean, of course, that as the Summation Index comes closer and closer to earth (the zero line) - less and less stocks will participate as the initial rising tide has now pulled back leaving only those stocks that are keys to keeping the market going in the same initial direction buoyant - until all of the liquidity is gone - and gravity brings the shuttle back to earth - and since there is no more fuel to continue higher - this is when we see broader overall corrections like we just saw over the last 3 years.


I hope I have addressed your questions adequately, and in a way that makes sense, and not too repetitive.

Fib

========================
McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html


==========================================================
==========================================================
Chi2: Analysis of McClellan Oscillator Signals,
I began just before the beginning of the Rally,
on March 7 and covered the period to July 25.

I broke the analysis into Three (3) Sections.

This the First Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NAS Oscillator Signals.

There were 36 McClellan Nasdaq Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 17 ended in Up Sessions,
9 ended in Down Sessions. There was also one potential
entry after open and it ended also in a Down Session.

So in sum, there were 27 or 26 ending action points,
dependent on how you count the extra one.

The McClellan NASDAQ Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal Nasdaq ConsumatedDate Oscill Date DaysAft COMPQ NDX`Mar 5 +2.6 Mar 10 3 -26 -22Mar 7 +1.28 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 11 +2.00 Mar 13 2 +61 +59Mar 12 -4.36 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 14 -0.08 Mar 17 1 +52 +46Mar 18 +4.43 Mar 24 4 -51 -45Mar 19 -0.3 ditto 3 ditto dittoMar 20 +3.45 ditto 2 ditto dittoMar 27 -0.74 Mar 31 2 -28 -28Mar 28 -4.4 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +48 +40 Apr 3 -4.88 Apr 7 2 + 6 + 6 <MMaftOpenDitto Apr 9 4 -26 -22 Apr 10 +0.06 Apr 14 2 +26 +22Apr 11 -3.99 ditto 1 ditto dittoApr 15 +3.34 Apr 17 2 +30 +28Apr 21 -1.72 Apr 22 1 +27 +21Apr 23 +4.85 Apr 25 2 -22 -24Ditto Apr 28 3 +27 +23 Apr 29 -2.87 May 2 3 +30 +23Apr 30 +0.43 ditto 2 ditto dittoMay 1 -1.77 ditto 1 ditto dittoMay 5 -1.38 May 9 4 +30 +24May 6 -1.38 ditto 3 ditto dittoMay 15 +2.98 May 19 2 -46 -42May 20 -3.26 May 27 4 +46 +42May 28 +2.5 May 30 2 +21 +16May 29 +1.74 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Jun 4 4 +31 +26Jun 5 +1.99 Jun 9 2 -23 -17Jun 11 +3.24 Jun 16 3 +40 +37Jun 12 -4.00 ditto 2 ditto dittoJun 17 -2.56 Jun 19 2 -28 -22Jun 20 -1.29 Jun 23 1 -34 -23Jun 24 +4.89 Jun 26 2 +31 +26Jun 27 -3.99 Jul 2 3 +38 +28Jun 30 +0.22 ditto 2 ditto dittoJul 1 +3.84 ditto 1 ditto ditto Ditto Jul 7 3 +57 +50 Jul 9 +0.70 Jul 10 1 -31 -26.5Jul 24 +2.34 Jul 25 1 +29 +24

`
`

==============================================
This the Second Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals.
`
There were 27 McClellan NYSE Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 16 ended in Up Sessions,
10 ended in Down Sessions.

The McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal NYSE Consumated DOWDate Oscill Date DaysAft `Mar 5 +4.6 Mar 10 3 -171Mar 11 -3.99 Mar 13 2 +269Mar 12 -2.78 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 17 3 +282Mar 18 +1.07 Mar 21 3 +235Mar 19 +0.85 ditto 2 dittoMar 20 +4.54 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 24 1 -307Mar 27 +1.84 Mar 31 2 -153Mar 28 +0.48 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +215 Apr 4 -0.85 Apr 9 4 -100Apr 10 +4.5 Apr 14 2 +147Apr 11 -4.7 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 16 3 -144Apr 21 -3.76 Apr 22 1 +156Apr 23 -0.11 Apr 25 2 -133Ditto Apr 28 3 +165 Apr 29 -2.11 May 2 3 +128Apr 30 +1.42 ditto 2 ditto May 5 -4.37 May 9 4 +113No Call ====== May 12 +122 May 15 +3.34 May 19 2 -185May 20 +1.99 May 27 4 +179May 28 -1.86 May 30 2 +139Jun 2 +2.84 Jun 4 2 +116Jun 5 -1.92 Jun 9 2 -82Jun 12 +3.24 Jun 16 2 +201Jun 20 -3.06 Jun 23 1 -127Jun 27 -2.7 Jul 2 3 +103Jun 30 +2.1 ditto 2 dittoJul 8 +1.85 Jul 10 1 -120Jul 24 +2.3 Jul 25 1 +172 ``


These are not easy to pre-call their direction, but not impossible.
`
`
I COULD NOT FIND THE COMBINED ACTION, IE SECTION III, I MAY NOT HAVE WRITTEN IT INTO THE RAGING BULL AS A POST.

thnaks
i for one appreciate your work and i believe many others do too. i also think a large move is coming
for different reasons than yours but its nice to see a confirmation from another technical
viewpoint

thanks
gann

[ogm]

Not to belittle your analisys, but I kinda agree with dcenger. Plenty of times when MCO small change doesn't mean anything. I just eyeballed the chart and found plenty of examples. January 14, 2007 for example. very small change to MCO, market unchanged for several days after that. And so on. Theoreticaly if someone isn't lazy, maybe they can run a code on tradestation or other charting tool and see what it looks like on the chart. It is logical to assume that there is some kind of move coming, since the market is volatile and tense. But I don't think MCO has anything to do with it. Summations are trending up for now.

Edited by ogm, 15 September 2007 - 07:24 PM.

[chichi2]

I do not have the time or patience to teach all i know of using the MCO small chg TA. I will include a little history i wrote in 2003. Note first there is a specific MCO to go with each Index, Decision Pt calculates the MCO for most Indices. NYMO goes with NYA ( not SPX ) NAMO goes with Nasdaq

Personally i find it quite helpful knowing that a big move is coming. Usually i would have not thought of Nasdaq making a big move as it did on Friday, reason for not thinking so is we have that potential big action next Tuesday, so as someone noted on Thursdays action, it was boring, so i for one did not expect a major down and reveral bottom in Nasdaq to be formed Friday. But enough of how i personally used it this week, as the small chg MCO for Nasdaq was evident to be coming to me as i watch Thursday, so i sold my Calls near close. Watched the downer on Friday and could have rebot them then for an additional nice profit.

Here is a little history. you will see, after i first was using the MCO small chg, i then started also using Decision Pt to get the confirmations of more MCO calculations. I also did not believe, so i tested the idea over and over, some of which i kept in detail. I then tried in those earlier days to only use MCO small chgs to try to predict the markets moves. I was not able to, however, with using other TA can in many case do a good job of predicting the direction, so i tend to play when i feel my risk/knowledge is best. Otherwise i try not to play for the big move, just like anyone who trades does money management. Small chg MCO is just one more possible tool. Right now it does a very obvious thing, it reminds us of the markets we are in are in general high Volatility markets, so MajorMarket moves come quite often. Just get a boring time, and let the MCO small chg wake you up sometime, and see how valuable it can be.

One thing i found doing the studys of MCO small chgs, it got me very close to the markets in reanalysis, i watched how the actions were forming, just like you do when we daytrade. i learned a lot doing it. these were not just stat studies, these were indepth studies trying to see if when on signal was given, would a MM happen, would another index MM too, would these happen in the same day, would it take next day or ??, note the original authors of the TA gave only hints to their knowledge or studies. so i did not believe them, nor did i have any indepth essays on it.

Here is a little history, states in the 1970s which predates my work with it, and a little of what i did in 1999-2004 timeframe, i was on several boards over that span, most being documented on ihub and raging bull.
(i see my data files would take some time to convert to fixed format so they are more intelligible. i have the original files on iHub which are available in fixed format from 2003, the files on RagingBull if they still exist, would not be so easy to find, but they were recorded on the space called DrBob as I inherited that space sometime back in 1999-2002


Posted by: chichi2
In reply to: chichi2 who wrote msg# 6378 Date:12/31/2003 11:47:18 AM
Post #of 25022

Chi2: MCO smallchg Signals. ForThoseWhoEnjoyHistory.

For non-Technicians this will be more than you need, but some like to read about it.

Interesting old charts... for todays signal too, we have broken above old peak.
http://www.traders-t...t...&folderid=1

click on "replied to" for my post reply to "be"

HERE IS HOW MUCH OF TA IDEAS ARE PASSED ON...

From DrBob... to me.

The TA guy who taught this to me was Gene Morgan, who was a friend of Gerald McClellan in the mid 70's and 80's. Morgan was on KWHY TV in LA in the 70's and 80's, and I watched him all the time, and he came up with that observation about a change 5 or less resulting in large moves w/in 4
sessions.

Works most of the time, but doesn't tell you which direction.


From Fib_1618...

'where or how are you seeing Wilshire Breadth MCO?'

You can see the Wilshire along with the NDX, SPX, OEX and Dow MCO's at Decision Point (something I suggested to Carl back in 2000) - both in breadth and volume.

'and on what basis are you calling it to come within 2 sessions?'

The first person to bring this to my attention was Ken Gammage back in the late 70's - and it has had this high consistency factor for as long as I have been using the MCO. The 5 point change works best with the traditional NYSE - while the 4 point change works best with the ratio adjusted NYSE - and the rest of the charts shown at DP though the overall predictive value of this remains with the broader index'.

Fib

From: fib_1618

Chi2 did an emperical analysis of all Nas and NYSE MCO smallchg from March 2003 to July 2003

objective to determine if it was a good signal that is it did fulfill what its objective... an MM within 2 to 4 days.
I concluded it did. However, i did try to see if i could consistently determine its direction, and found i could not do better than 50% by enough to say i could do it.

The details of this study were reported in several posts on RB board, i suspect they are still there. But i have not looked for them. The board was... http://ragingbull.ly.......B&newpost=1


For the period of my study analysis March 2003 to July 2003, i reported, on that RB board, every signal and its results, in Nasdaq and in NYSE. (also see bottom of this post, where i am attempting to repost it.) http://ragingbull.ly.......&read=86914

Since that study, we got a patchs of signals that did not yield any MMs. My recall mind is not working well enough today to say whether that was in September or October. So i have not called some since then.

The MM size was bigger back in time than it has been in 2003. This is a phenomena of the markets. Less volatility in the MCOs can be seen by the lack of their height of peaks, either on the downside or the upside. See the MCO NAMO and NYMO charts in yesterday's MCO smallchg call. There are two longer term charts and two near term charts. http://www.investors...sage_id=2026301

========================================================
========================================================
RELATED TECHNICAL INFO, THAT are thoughts on
McClellan Summation Index (the Oscillator dailies are added together to create the Summation Index)

fib1618: McClellan: MCO and MCSUM Responses
Jun15 9pm
----------------------------
MCO= McClellan Oscillator
MCSUM= McClellan Summation Index
IT= Intermediate Trend

McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html
=======================

Don's questions in italics:

"From a mathematical standpoint, what are the probabilities that the MCSUM has peaked for the entire IT? In other words, is the momentum built into the 5% and 10% lines moving in the direction they are very likely to prevent new MCSUM highs, barring some unlikely occurrence? Would you say it's 70%, 80%, 90% likely that it's peaked?"

Maybe an explanation about how I use the Oscillator, the components that make up the Oscillator, and the Summation Index, would help in answering some of your questions - and I will use an analogy that I think tends to make the most sense.

You're in the space shuttle and about to blast off. The countdown begins - and you lift off.

On your 'dashboard' there are three instruments that measure the fuel (money) you're using in accomplishing your task from going from earth to an orbital point above the planet. One instrument measures the rate of consumption in which you're using this fuel (the components) - one tells you how fast you're going with this present rate of consumption of this fuel (the Oscillator) - and the last one gives you the path (or trajectory) in which this fuel is propelling you (the Summation Index).

As you continue to climb higher, you will tend not to use as much fuel to escape the gravitational pull of the earth - though the momentum of the initial fuel expended continues to drive you forward until either you hit an immovable object or you finally lose the forward motion (momentum) in which this fuel has sent you on your quest (Newton's law). The Summation Index shows you (in a quick visual form) what the outcome of what the components and the Oscillator itself have been able to generate...with the further the separation of the postings in which you see showing you the rate in which you are traveling based on the fuel that is being used - and the overall path in which all of this fuel is taking you.

After looking over your indicators, you decide that you have now expended enough fuel to reach your ultimate destination - so you shut down your engines (which the Oscillator will confirm by going back down through the zero line and your rate of consumption will cease). Initially, when you shut down your engines, the force of gravity then takes over and starts pulling on your forward momentum and your path will either degrade a little (Summation ledges or fish hook patterns) - or it may degrade alot - depending on how close you are to the planet (the Summation Index zero line) when this fuel is taken away.

Now that you have an idea of how I look at these tools - and maybe a better picture of what these tools are all about - here are some of the things that are in play here.

We have used a tremendous amount of fuel (as represented by the components) to escape the heavy gravitational pull of the earth (in the form of deflationary tendencies) to get where we are today. In theory, there is only so much fuel available to use on any one mission to get to a point in reaching your goal objective AND have any backup fuel that maybe needed for any course corrections in the future. Because of all the fuel expended for such a long period of time - this expenditure of fuel used has been reflected in the Oscillator as to the amount of acceleration thats been created (both in speed and time)- and in the process of taking us to these high Summation levels. Historically speaking - we have basically used more fuel that was necessary on past shuttle missions - and because of this - we have now gone to a level not seen before (new all time highs). Another way to look at this is that the computers on the shuttle not only didn't shut down the engines when it was necessary - but it actually used more fuel that was necessary on top of that - and in the process - has left us with a lower percentage of initial fuel being available for us to use later on.

So to answer your question directly Don - in the past the Summation Index would tend to make one more course correctional high to put your shuttle into proper orbit. However, we have already overshot our intial flight plan already - so it would make more sense that the highs being made right now will be the intermediate highs - and maybe even the historical highs for some years to come. Also keep in mind that the precious fuel that you do have left needs to be used for emergency purposes only (as to push the shuttle into a higher orbit if it gets too close to the atmosphere) - that is unless ground control decides to send up another shuttle with additional fuel (or liquidity) to replenish the amount that was lost with the 'malfunction' of the engines.

"It looks to me like when past 1500+ MCSUM's have turned down:

A. The market usually had a sideways move for a couple of weeks, or in other cases a mild pullback of a couple of weeks. At the extremes, in one case the market actually peaked right then (but this was after doubling in the fall of 1932), in another had a rather protracted sideways action before resuming uptrend, and in another yet case, barley missed a beat, but kept on climbing.

B. In all cases except the '32 cited above, it moved anywhere from another half again what it had moved so far, to thrice again what it had moved thus far before any IT correction."

With the over abundance of limited fuel that has already been used - I would probably not expect a higher Summation reading unless we get additional fuel for the journey - or the mission has been extended in needing more time to complete itself (which with present monetary policy we might just get this fuel - but I have to go on the assumption that this is all we will have to work with based on historical standards). Since we are so far above the earth (the Summation Index zero line) - and less fuel will now be needed to keep us at levels needed to sustain our orbit - any further fuel expenditures should be at lower Summation levels - but any fuel used in the future will allow price to move more easily in the directional path of the overall Summation Index (which in this case is up) because gravity is not so much an issue now as it was when we lifted off the ground.

"Beyond about this point in the cycle, the market starts to get rather 'heady', with some of the leadership stocks making huge moves in short periods. But at the same time, the market gets more and more selective, so that a rising tide does NOT lift all boats."

Since we have had such an over abundance of fuel (money) entering a market place that has a limited amount of participants - the initial fuel that we just saw expended has fanned out to many more stocks than has been usual in the past - and this is reflected in the broader market indices leading the charge to the upside - while the better known - lesser component index' - have lagged because of all this fuel being distributed over a broader range. As the Summation declines - and then again moves up - there will be less fuel to go around - and because of this - any fuel used in the future will tend to go to the stocks that mean the most to the majority to gauge market activity (the SPX and OEX as two examples). This would mean, of course, that as the Summation Index comes closer and closer to earth (the zero line) - less and less stocks will participate as the initial rising tide has now pulled back leaving only those stocks that are keys to keeping the market going in the same initial direction buoyant - until all of the liquidity is gone - and gravity brings the shuttle back to earth - and since there is no more fuel to continue higher - this is when we see broader overall corrections like we just saw over the last 3 years.


I hope I have addressed your questions adequately, and in a way that makes sense, and not too repetitive.

Fib

========================
McClellan Indicators http://www.decisionp...te/McOsiRA.html


==========================================================
==========================================================
Chi2: Analysis of McClellan Oscillator Signals,
I began just before the beginning of the Rally,
on March 7 and covered the period to July 25.

I broke the analysis into Three (3) Sections.

This the First Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NAS Oscillator Signals.

There were 36 McClellan Nasdaq Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 17 ended in Up Sessions,
9 ended in Down Sessions. There was also one potential
entry after open and it ended also in a Down Session.

So in sum, there were 27 or 26 ending action points,
dependent on how you count the extra one.

The McClellan NASDAQ Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal Nasdaq ConsumatedDate Oscill Date DaysAft COMPQ NDX`Mar 5 +2.6 Mar 10 3 -26 -22Mar 7 +1.28 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 11 +2.00 Mar 13 2 +61 +59Mar 12 -4.36 ditto 1 ditto dittoMar 14 -0.08 Mar 17 1 +52 +46Mar 18 +4.43 Mar 24 4 -51 -45Mar 19 -0.3 ditto 3 ditto dittoMar 20 +3.45 ditto 2 ditto dittoMar 27 -0.74 Mar 31 2 -28 -28Mar 28 -4.4 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +48 +40 Apr 3 -4.88 Apr 7 2 + 6 + 6 <MMaftOpenDitto Apr 9 4 -26 -22 Apr 10 +0.06 Apr 14 2 +26 +22Apr 11 -3.99 ditto 1 ditto dittoApr 15 +3.34 Apr 17 2 +30 +28Apr 21 -1.72 Apr 22 1 +27 +21Apr 23 +4.85 Apr 25 2 -22 -24Ditto Apr 28 3 +27 +23 Apr 29 -2.87 May 2 3 +30 +23Apr 30 +0.43 ditto 2 ditto dittoMay 1 -1.77 ditto 1 ditto dittoMay 5 -1.38 May 9 4 +30 +24May 6 -1.38 ditto 3 ditto dittoMay 15 +2.98 May 19 2 -46 -42May 20 -3.26 May 27 4 +46 +42May 28 +2.5 May 30 2 +21 +16May 29 +1.74 ditto 1 ditto dittoDitto Jun 4 4 +31 +26Jun 5 +1.99 Jun 9 2 -23 -17Jun 11 +3.24 Jun 16 3 +40 +37Jun 12 -4.00 ditto 2 ditto dittoJun 17 -2.56 Jun 19 2 -28 -22Jun 20 -1.29 Jun 23 1 -34 -23Jun 24 +4.89 Jun 26 2 +31 +26Jun 27 -3.99 Jul 2 3 +38 +28Jun 30 +0.22 ditto 2 ditto dittoJul 1 +3.84 ditto 1 ditto ditto Ditto Jul 7 3 +57 +50 Jul 9 +0.70 Jul 10 1 -31 -26.5Jul 24 +2.34 Jul 25 1 +29 +24

`
`

==============================================
This the Second Section, covers Separately the
McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals.
`
There were 27 McClellan NYSE Signals.
Some consumated into the same action

There were 26 End Actions: 16 ended in Up Sessions,
10 ended in Down Sessions.

The McClellan NYSE Oscillator Signals data follows:

`Signal NYSE Consumated DOWDate Oscill Date DaysAft `Mar 5 +4.6 Mar 10 3 -171Mar 11 -3.99 Mar 13 2 +269Mar 12 -2.78 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 17 3 +282Mar 18 +1.07 Mar 21 3 +235Mar 19 +0.85 ditto 2 dittoMar 20 +4.54 ditto 1 dittoDitto Mar 24 1 -307Mar 27 +1.84 Mar 31 2 -153Mar 28 +0.48 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 2 3 +215 Apr 4 -0.85 Apr 9 4 -100Apr 10 +4.5 Apr 14 2 +147Apr 11 -4.7 ditto 1 dittoDitto Apr 16 3 -144Apr 21 -3.76 Apr 22 1 +156Apr 23 -0.11 Apr 25 2 -133Ditto Apr 28 3 +165 Apr 29 -2.11 May 2 3 +128Apr 30 +1.42 ditto 2 ditto May 5 -4.37 May 9 4 +113No Call ====== May 12 +122 May 15 +3.34 May 19 2 -185May 20 +1.99 May 27 4 +179May 28 -1.86 May 30 2 +139Jun 2 +2.84 Jun 4 2 +116Jun 5 -1.92 Jun 9 2 -82Jun 12 +3.24 Jun 16 2 +201Jun 20 -3.06 Jun 23 1 -127Jun 27 -2.7 Jul 2 3 +103Jun 30 +2.1 ditto 2 dittoJul 8 +1.85 Jul 10 1 -120Jul 24 +2.3 Jul 25 1 +172 ``


These are not easy to pre-call their direction, but not impossible.
`
`
I COULD NOT FIND THE COMBINED ACTION, IE SECTION III, I MAY NOT HAVE WRITTEN IT INTO THE RAGING BULL AS A POST.

thnaks
i for one appreciate your work and i believe many others do too. i also think a large move is coming
for different reasons than yours but its nice to see a confirmation from another technical
viewpoint

thanks
gann

[dcengr]

I do not disagree with some of the theories put forth regarding "fuel", "momentum", etc. Anyone who's read Tom DeMark's books (Tom was VP of Tudor Systems - the backtesting arm of Paul Tudor Jones) knows he has similar ideas about how price continues to climb even with decreased money flow. As MCO is derived as a moving average of the adv-dec line, which is a way to measure money flow, there likely is some sort of correlation between MCO and price changes, though not very obvious ones, and certainly not ones that apply at any given random period of time. Ofcourse, its silly saying that there will be a big move 2-4 days from now. Anyone can see there's a fed meeting this wednesday, and that would certainly be within 2-4 days. The reaction to the Fed announcement I would find more interesting. A cut I would interpret as a bullish action, and if one was to materialize but price failed to climb strongly, I would interpret that as bearish. If there's NO rate cut and prices moved strongly, I would interpret that as bullish. As it is, my own analysis indicates that people continue to sell this rally to a point where they're sitting on losses, but I tend to believe that its only ST traders that are hog wild bearish and rest of the market is going through some macro level credit crunch which is overall bearish. So a counter trend rally to what may lead to be a retest of the lows, or at least a shake out of the new bulls to come.. probably not too far after the bears are shaken out. But I don't have statistical studies to show this

[VolPivots]

SPX price * VIX% / square root of 252 (VIX is an annualized number; square root of 252 trading days converts into daily) Current VIX levels imply an intraday range of 23 SPX points......as long as it remains high, the mkt mind is saying to continue to expect big moves. 40-45 points straight up or down in 2 days shouldn't be a surprise.....i'm expecting it after Wednesday's close after we tag 1500 cash.

[traderpaul]

1) How many days we had that had a large move but without the little changes in MCO the day prior? 2) You have to put all your numbers in percentages for you report to be meaningful. 3) Were those moves with the trend or against the trend? Percentages?

[Jnavin]

There's always a big day coming in the next "2 to 4 days." Reminds of a bar I used to go to...they had a sign over the mirror behind the bar that said "Free beer tomorrow."