5 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Yet another website that I open looking for ideas is full of negativity.

SeekingAlpha.com

Look at these articles people are submiting... one after another.... Some depressing stuff..

http://seekingalpha....sector/usmarket

* Jeremy Grantham: Train Wreck Spotter?

* Yield Spread, Employment Data Forecast Recession

* Nine Reasons The Fed Can't Save Stocks

* Economists: Probability of U.S. Recession in 2008 Almost 60%

* Retail Sales Remain Good But Deteriorating

* What's So Troubling About Tomorrow?


One after another.. And its everywhere... Any website you look at is full of this stuff. Even Greenspan on CBS proclaiming tough times.

[johngeorge]

ogm
For sure I am a negative guy on the market next week. Triple witching on Friday so the usual, of course not always, is to have a down week with a bounce on the following Monday; the 24th. Rate cut by Fed is IMO "baked in the market" so it's sell the news. Seasonally this is a nasty time of the year for the market. Looking to go short Monday the Russell 2000 with TWM.
Best to you

[ogm]

ogm
For sure I am a negative guy on the market next week. Triple witching on Friday so the usual, of course not always, is to have a down week with a bounce on the following Monday; the 24th. Rate cut by Fed is IMO "baked in the market" so it's sell the news. Seasonally this is a nasty time of the year for the market. Looking to go short Monday the Russell 2000 with TWM.
Best to you

The perverted thing about "sell the news" is that when just about everyone is expecting the news to be sold.. its usualy a very short lived sell-off
And there is certainly a concensus out there that the rate cut is "priced in" and should be sold.
I think thats exactly what we'll have. We'll have a fast drop, as the news is being sold and bears pile in screaming "I told you so !", and then recovery.

Edited by ogm, 16 September 2007 - 10:19 PM.

[SandStorm]

Thumbs up take. It will be "sell the news" alright. But sell the Fed news or sell the bears selling the Fed news which reverses to buy. Either way, I am too chicken to play. I plan to be flat by Monday close.

[OEXCHAOS]

You know what all of this bad news is all about, right?

It's cover for the Fed. And not just the Fed. The Europeans are way behind the curve on this one. The news HAS to be as bad as possible so that Central Bankers can cut without seeming soft on Inflation, undoing their efforts.

This is suposed to drive down LONG yields, too, not just short yields.

Mark

Yet another website that I open looking for ideas is full of negativity.

SeekingAlpha.com

Look at these articles people are submiting... one after another.... Some depressing stuff..

http://seekingalpha....sector/usmarket

* Jeremy Grantham: Train Wreck Spotter?

* Yield Spread, Employment Data Forecast Recession

* Nine Reasons The Fed Can't Save Stocks

* Economists: Probability of U.S. Recession in 2008 Almost 60%

* Retail Sales Remain Good But Deteriorating

* What's So Troubling About Tomorrow?


One after another.. And its everywhere... Any website you look at is full of this stuff. Even Greenspan on CBS proclaiming tough times.

[humble1]

we ARE going to have a recession and are probably in one now. two great graphs on employment mometum and the yield spread, featured in saturday's nytimes, have never been wrong in predicting a recession, when both so signal, and they are doing so now. so: i agree with those who say a recession is pretty much priced in. what is NOT priced in is the depth and length. we will have, at least, a very sharp downturn lasting some three years. a depression would not surprise me. no, that would not be the end of the world, except for those who will not face reality. we have had at least four here in the usa since our country was formed.