8 replies to this topic

[ogm]

I've been listening all morning. Depressing as hell. Basicaly the only thing left to do is to hang yourself. Every single guest, every comentator... all saying that there is nothing Fed can do, interest rates cuts won't help. Consumer is dead, economy is dead, housing is dead, stocks will drop..... blah, blah, blah. Even Mark Haynes is expecting a "big decline" after a rate cut. Don't remember it this bad in a while. Bottom 2002 comes to mind. You couldn't turn it on without being engulfed into a thick cloud of doom and gloom.

[BearItch]

Time to warm up the helicopter for tomorrow's money drop!

[humble1]

trading against sentiment as your main or only tool is very dangerous. note the continuing decline of the u.s. dollar and the housing meltdown. the dollar sentiment has been VERY bearish and still it works lower and lower. i only know of anecdotal sentiment evidence about the housing blowout, but i think anyone who has payed attention knows that it was correctly and forcefully and widely predicted. bad news is not always good news (tm: humble1). p.s. i think greenspan's spewings have depressed joe, lol !

Edited by humble1, 17 September 2007 - 10:23 AM.

[nicolasillo]

Yeah and last week they were saying buy buy buy..... so don t come out here and use cnbc as an indicator, i.e. the opposite of what they are saying will happen etc etc. The channel is just ridiculous as it is with Cramer on it. You shouldn t watch that channel...it s bad for the brain cells.Full stop.

Edited by nicolasillo, 17 September 2007 - 10:23 AM.

[ogm]

CNBC is a great tool if you know how to use it. This is the channel designed to say buy buy buy... so when they are saying sell sell sell.. you gotta pay attention.

[lynx]

Hi everybody Normally when everybody expects a downturn then it will not come. If we will get a crash at all this year then I guess October 5th would be perfect. This date does not get much of attention - its the employment situation report for September. If the trend of the employment situation has continued then it means approximately (my guestimation based on death birth model): * -120 000 to -150 000 workplaces (minus !!) * consensus 30 000 to 40 000 workplaces (plus !!) all with a wide margin of error of course Anyway the report will most propably be a great dissapointment - therefor perfect for a crash. We could recover afterwards (maybe with the help of a further rate cut) and due to short covering, start the year end rally. That would be my favorite scenario. Good trading to all.

[redfoliage2]

I think it's going to be either a non-event or a rally.

[pdx5]

Rate cuts do not always help. just look at Japan. They had a tremendous real estate boom. Then that bubble was pricked. Rates in Japan are still near 1%. And Japan, the 2nd largest economy in the world is still in a funk after what 10-12 years? Hmmmmm..

[OEXCHAOS]

Rate cuts do not always help. just look at Japan.
They had a tremendous real estate boom. Then that
bubble was pricked. Rates in Japan are still near 1%.
And Japan, the 2nd largest economy in the world is
still in a funk after what 10-12 years? Hmmmmm..

Eh, are you comparing RE here with RE there in 1990? Their stock market with ours? Their accounting methods vs. Ours?

What are those similarities?

I know however that our cultures are virtually identical.


The one thing we would do well to remember is that the government can't really spend a country out of recession. If anything, the inefficient spending will prolong it, as it did here during the depression and there for the past 16 years.

Mark