13 replies to this topic

[NAV]

what the market reaction to the Fed would be. But even if i did and knew the exact direction and the hour of turn, i may not be able to trade it or i would find 100 ways to screw it up. There is so much obsession as to what the Fed is gonna do - is it 25 ? is it 50 ? What if 25 ? What if 50 ? What if 100 ? What if nothing ?. How is all that all going to translate into a trade ? Looking at the market from a daily chart perpective, it wants to go up. Looking from a 30-min chart perspective, it wants to go down. What does that tell you ? My logical conclusion from that is the sideways correction which has been going on for the last few days will end with a swoosh today after the Fed and then takeoff to the upside as the daily charts have been suggesting. Again trading it may not be easy, unless you are a position trader, with large stops. For a VST trader like me, standing aside tommorw would be more prudent. The days following Fed are more lucrative and less noisy. So Fed is a non-event for me.

Edited by NAV, 17 September 2007 - 09:43 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

what the market reaction to the Fed would be. But even if i did and knew the exact direction and the hour of turn, i may not be able to trade it or i would find 100 ways to screw it up. There is so much obsession as to what the Fed is gonna do - is it 25 ? is it 50 ? What if 25 ? What if 50 ? What if 100 ? What if nothing ?. How is all that all going to translate into a trade ?

Looking at the market from a daily chart perpective, it wants to go up. Looking from a 30-min chart perspective, it wants to go down. What does that tell you ? My logical conclusion from that is the sideways correction which has been going on for the last days will end with a swoosh today after the Fed and then takeoff to the upside as the daily charts have been suggesting. Again trading it may not be easy, unless you are a position trader, with large stops. For a VST trader like me, standing aside tommorw would be more prudent. The days following Fed are more lucrative and less noisy. So Fed is a non-event for me.

how far down does the swoosh go on the sept es???

do we break 1440

[NAV]

what the market reaction to the Fed would be. But even if i did and knew the exact direction and the hour of turn, i may not be able to trade it or i would find 100 ways to screw it up. There is so much obsession as to what the Fed is gonna do - is it 25 ? is it 50 ? What if 25 ? What if 50 ? What if 100 ? What if nothing ?. How is all that all going to translate into a trade ?

Looking at the market from a daily chart perpective, it wants to go up. Looking from a 30-min chart perspective, it wants to go down. What does that tell you ? My logical conclusion from that is the sideways correction which has been going on for the last days will end with a swoosh today after the Fed and then takeoff to the upside as the daily charts have been suggesting. Again trading it may not be easy, unless you are a position trader, with large stops. For a VST trader like me, standing aside tommorw would be more prudent. The days following Fed are more lucrative and less noisy. So Fed is a non-event for me.

how far down does the swoosh go on the sept es???

do we break 1440

All my analysis have switched to Dec. Looking at Sep ES

1470 - Horizontal support on daily.
1470 - Mid bollinger band support on daily.
1470 - Lower bollinger band support on 60-min.
1465 - 200 period SMA on 60-min chart.
1465 - Horizontal support on 60-min
1465 - Trendline from the 8/16 lows.

All these says ES 1465 should hold. That's as far as my crystal ball goes....

An hourly close below 1465, then i have no idea where this market is headed.

[greenie]

1496-1500 in cash index and then down, down, down........

[ogm]

Ok, I'm going to let you in on a secret.... Fed, Shmed, none of that stuff really matters. Considering we have so much anticipation, I agree, whatever the news will be tomorrow will probably end up being a non-event. What will really matter is the earnings season. So far we had very few pre-anouncements. HOG, ETRD, ... you can count them on one hand. Thats why the market is holding up. The situation is completely opposite to last quarter. If last quarter expectations were high, this time they are very low. This will be the real test, if the global economy is winning over the subprime idiocy. I think the earnings season will be stronger then expected, and that will put real stability under the credit and stock markets. So far tech sector is pre anouncing good results. NOK, INTC, STX, ADBE.....

[NAV]

All the funnmentals apart, for the TA guys....

The 8 ema crossed above the 34 ema on the daily SPX charts yesterday, after crossing below on 7/26

Edited by NAV, 17 September 2007 - 10:17 PM.

[pdx5]

The Fed decision will have an impact on the market behavior. Earnings, especially the banks, will have an effect. But but... those are both funnymentals.....so forget those. Go by TA

[ogm]

The Fed decision will have an impact on the market behavior.
Earnings, especially the banks, will have an effect. But but...
those are both funnymentals.....so forget those. Go by TA

I use both.

[eminimee]

Everything I see in my work for the short to intermediate period..is more volatility, big swings and going basically nowhere. Trend won't be established for another 5 to 8 weeks. Play the swings....I think the low is in but more bottoming action is required.

[arbman]

There are two harmonics I follow, the "trading" or Hurst harmonics and the other "seasonal" harmonics. The financials usually follow the former, while the tech stocks usually follow the latter. I might be wrong with this analysis especially if the market moves above 1510 on SPX basis, but this is what I am thinking...

The trend is still up. But the Hurst cycle periods are still elongating, it means the bottoming phase is not complete, the activity is still not elevated enough to warrant any aggressive buying. Any upside will come back and retest, imho. The high volume lows indicate most of the selling is done, the internal low is probably here. The seasonal harmonics are more dominant lately and it is indicating a high here and they should bottom in a few days for an EOQ rally. The new highs are not expanding, the volume sorely needs a retest of some sort. I expect a wider range for October.

Certainly, the upside is limited with the Q3 earnings are still pending, there should not be much enthusiasm to buy the stocks ahead of the earnings at this juncture like Q2 and the stocks had a pretty good run from the lows and the indices are just a tad away from the new highs with a strong divergence in the new highs.

Fed will not cut 50 basis points while the inflation is still the center debate. A 25 basis cut is priced in. I doubt that the seasonal cycle will be violated this time without any significant catalyst, there are pretty much none. So, I expect a rally to the horizontal resistance on the Fed news should mark a pretty nice high for a while (and stop the shorts tomorrow), otherwise it is right about to shoot lower. I expect the downside to be limited by 1440-1460 region until an Oct high...

Good luck,
- kisa

Some stats about the stock matches by using the self-correlations filtered with the moving averages;

cyclical-4 300 matches
cyclical-6 405 matches 1.25wk harmonics
cyclical-8 864 matches strong seasonal cycle/8day harmonics
cyclical-10 129 matches
cyclical-12 145 matches 2.5wk harmonics
cyclical-14 82 matches
cyclical-16 329 matches strong seasonal cycle/16day harmonics
cyclical-18 191 matches
cyclical-20 84 matches
cyclical-22 113 matches
cyclical-24 144 matches 5wk harmonics
cyclical-26 88 matches
cyclical-28 85 matches
cyclical-30 74 matches
cyclical-32 69 matches
cyclical-34 62 matches weaker
cyclical-36 78 matches
cyclical-38 67 matches
cyclical-40 29 matches
cyclical-42 33 matches
cyclical-44 23 matches
cyclical-46 23 matches
cyclical-48 58 matches
cyclical-50 74 matches
cyclical-52 106 matches 10wk cycle
cyclical-54 88 matches
cyclical-56 65 matches
cyclical-58 56 matches
cyclical-60 25 matches
cyclical-62 29 matches
cyclical-64 32 matches
cyclical-66 37 matches weaker
cyclical-68 31 matches
cyclical-70 27 matches
cyclical-72 27 matches
cyclical-74 28 matches
cyclical-76 30 matches
cyclical-78 25 matches
cyclical-80 22 matches
...