7 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Bernanke does a combo move that destroys bears in one two punch knock out.. Film at 11. As for me, I'd like to think this was a signal that wave 3 up has started, but I have other scenario that says give it some time to percolate before giving a lot of it back. Remember, the bloggers are as hog wild bullish as they've ever been. And small speculator put/call ratio will soon be punching through excessive orgasmic optimism state. Plus all bears are dead. Long live the bears. Me, I've cashed out my longs here.

[ogm]

I think we're far from bearish capitulation.
They are all fighting, and hoping it will be over soon.

We're still yet to see any posts.. like "I'm bullish now, will be buying on the dips" ....

First we'll have the wave of "double toppers"

Read this stuff.. its a goldmine. Thanks, Greenie

http://www.tickerfor...w?forum=General

And don't forget Capitalstool.

Edited by ogm, 18 September 2007 - 09:38 PM.

[dcengr]

They may sound bearish, but monetarily, they've capitulated. As far as I can tell, bears were down 5% from where they were hogwild bearish, so they've been sitting on losses for a while. Today's rally, IMO, was mostly short covering due to Bernanke "shock and awe". But the macro economic fact remains very clear... that Ben did this .5% cut because the economy is in trouble. He wouldn't have cut so deep with the dollar so low... unless he was crapping in his pants. I think most smart money know this. As I've said before, you can lead a horse to water, but making him drink is another story. And the fed can cut the discount window, the fed can cut rates, but getting banks to lend money out.. after getting reamed from the housing scorch? You think they'll go back to offering no interest loans and do you think joe public will go out playing russian roulette with housing again? As 2002 showed us, getting a decent cut is bullish, but they kept cutting and cutting and the market didn't bottom til way the hell later. Rate cuts aren't necessarily bullish long term. I need to see more evidence that money is running out before I ride on the way down, but it was a no brainer watching the # of people shorting the market on this board... There's not that many times FF pollsters are THAT heavily leveraged on the short side.. especially 30%+.. but darn we broke 40% several days. If that wasn't a heads up, I don't know what was. Meanwhile, I ran a study to see what happens when the Dow was up more than 2% in a day over the past 15 years. The next day being up or down was like 45/55. So don't expect weakness right off. But to say this is outright bullish.. I would go look at historical precedent of where the dow 2% up days are, and you will notice that there were plenty of times when it was very close to an IT top.

[Mtrader]

A monster day and the NASDAQ volume is about 2bil. Not much participation here. Let see what tomorrow brings first before celebrating. All the actions were in the NYSE.

[ogm]

But the macro economic fact remains very clear... that Ben did this .5% cut because the economy is in trouble. He wouldn't have cut so deep with the dollar so low... unless he was crapping in his pants. I think most smart money know this.

As I've said before, you can lead a horse to water, but making him drink is another story. And the fed can cut the discount window, the fed can cut rates, but getting banks to lend money out.. after getting reamed from the housing scorch? You think they'll go back to offering no interest loans and do you think joe public will go out playing russian roulette with housing again?

Uh Oh ... Fundamentals trap alert

Ok, if we'll forget broken trendlines and another 9 to 1 up day, lets talk funadamentals....

Earnings are OK. Consumers still shopping. Subprime is GONE. The bad lending is purged for the time being. Whatever is on the books will dissolve. Global economy is booming.

Since earnings are OK, and global economy is booming... Banks will Lend. Especcialy considering the Fed and Banks around the world are willing to act. Spreads have now come to normal levels too, to the levels that make it attractive for the banks.

Confidence is restored for the time being. You can invest in stocks again. Thats what the market said today.

What we had here is a simple correction in credit markets. Spreads had to widen, considering the glut of all new deals coming and how low the risk premiums have become over the last couple years. Its over now.

There is plenty of liquidity out there. And a lot of it will go into stocks, since the CDO's and CMOs won't serve as a liquidity sponge anymore. So commodities and stocks will likely benefit from liquidity onsluaght.

[dcengr]

There is plenty of liquidity out there. And a lot of it will go into stocks, since the CDO's and CMOs won't serve as a liquidity sponge anymore. So commodities and stocks will likely benefit from liquidity onsluaght.

If the VIX drops below 15, I'll believe you. But watch that VIX, I bet ya it won't be dropping any time soon.

What do you think changed between march to july to september? Not much. Do you think all financial crisis can be fixed with a simple 11% correction and a .5% fed cut? darn if it was so simple, we'd never have another financial crisis ever again...

Ben may be better than many other Feds in the past, but lets face it, we're only human.

[Mtrader]

It looks like vix heading back down to 12.5

Edited by Mtrader, 18 September 2007 - 10:47 PM.

[ogm]

http://www.marketwat...;siteid=yahoomy