60 replies to this topic

[skott]

do you see why I covered now HIker? gave back almost 90cents/share on the 2/3 I have left. Scott

[stockbucks_coffee]

i'm really mad too rarely do my s/t indicator give a reversal signal and the gold/silver reversal on the same day...it's usually the next day the earliest or a few days. running around deciding whether to jump in and buy a truck load now or tomorrow

[skott]

I don't think the downside action is over but I could see this bounce coming. I still think the 39-40 area is where we are going but one never knows for sure and that is why I locked in some profit. I had an order in to cover another third at 41.27 and pulled it (greed rears it's ugly head again). Now I have to guess if we have a bounce tomorrow and sit thru it. I'll have to watch the action the rest of the day. Scott <------- this is me

[stockbucks_coffee]

my s/t indicators bring home the food, pay the bill, and keep wify happy...so if it says up then I have to go with it...just bought a truck load of gold/silver stocks..what's amazing is that the South Africa stocks lead this reversal...they being consolidating for 1 1/2 year waiting for the $dollar to outperform the Rand. I'll see what my s/t indicators say at EOD but it's still up.

[skott]

ok, folks. I covered at a level that is probably a good shorting point. Made 1% having been up 3% today on the trade I put on this morning. I can only console myself with the fact that I did go short near the top and made a profit for 3rd consecutive day +6% for the week. Scott

[stockbucks_coffee]

good trading for you Skott...now I have to worry since I'm long now

[PMILLY]

Good trading, both of you. Nothing wrong with taking profits skott. Definitely a nice bounce stockbucks. I agree with skott that we have not seen the bottom of this move, but who knows. I think we may make another low tomorrow before a real bounce. Pmilly

[hiker]

FYI - Updated: 03-Mar-04 14:09 ET 14:09 ET The ECB Dilemma: To cut interest rates or not to cut interest rates? That is the question confronting the European Central Bank at its policy meeting on Thursday. From the outside looking in, it certainly appears as if there is reason to reduce their key lending rate, which is at a multi-decade low of 2.0%, even further. After all, consumer prices in February were up just 1.6% - the slowest pace since November 1999 and consistent with the ECB's policy of inflation being below but close to 2.0%. Moreover, economic growth forecasts for the year were reportedly cut by the bank's economic research staff to a measly 1.5% from 1.6%. Another item that has been a political hot topic has been the strength of the euro vis-a-vis the dollar. On the bright side, the euro's strength has assuaged concerns about a marked uptick in the Euro zone's inflation rate. However, the euro's strength is an impediment to growth for exporters which lose pricing advantages abroad and don't earn as much when foreign earnings are converted. Domestic companies also feel the pinch as price competition from less expensive American goods intensifies. The end result is sub-par economic growth in the euro zone. The ECB, though, doesn't have a quick trigger finger when it comes to monetary policy. Additionally, the ECB is loathe to create an impression that monetary policy can be dictated by political wrangling. Its task in preventing such an understanding would have been more challenging had the euro held near the 1.30 level it was approaching in mid-February. But alas, it didn't, as speculation the ECB would cut rates and expectations of a strong nonfarm payrolls number in the U.S. this Friday have fueled a notable dollar rally. To wit, the euro now stands just north of 1.21 or roughly 6.0% lower from its mid-February peak of 1.2928. In essence, the market imposed a de facto easing on the stubborn central bank, which can take solace in knowing a weaker euro will help stimulate growth in the euro zone. At the same time, the drop in the euro gives the ECB the rationale it lacked in mid-February for holding rates steady as it will enable the central bank to fall back on a defense of being on guard against inflationary pressures.

[skott]

Just a reminder and Hiker has a post about this..ECB will announce whether they will cut rates or not tomorrow. Of course this should have an impact on gold and gold stocks. I usually don't like to trade around the news. To whippy usually. This whole issue is a little complicated and with the european union these countries now have restraints on them as far as budgetary deficits and the like. This a big reason why these idiots are selling their gold so they can balance their budgets which is Union requirement (give or take a few billion) . I think I will stand aside unless something pops into view. Scott

[hiker]

Scott - standing aside when in doubt is a wise move...risk management first. I am only going to share this because it stresses the importance of "get in, get out, get away" wisdom until the risk management is acceptable: years ago, I rode the short side in silver futures from the high $40/oz. area to about 12-13 in less than a year's time. I played a few long recovery bounces prior to silver breaking the 20's. Learned a lesson a few times about countertrending and when to stand aside while the action is in recovery mode.