3 replies to this topic

[blustar]

I believe we are making the case for an a-b-c type "Y" wave rally into an October 17-18 top. Elliott wrote about a-b-c type corrective phases and labeled bullish flag formations (as I believe we are forming) as X-Y-Z. I believe wave "X" finished as a double three "X" wave on August 16. The double three pattern also had an irregular top in its first a-b-c sequence suggesting a continuation pattern to new highs, hence wave "Y" coming into the 64 day Gann cycle top (commonly referred to as the 13 week cycle top) due October 18 around the upper 1580's SPX. Wave "Y"'s rally a-b-c. Looking at the 4Q's we can see an a-b-c 'a' wave rally to the Sept 5 top (Gann 32 days) and then an -x- of 'b' wave Sept 10 at the 8 day cycle low then -y- of 'b' wave top yesterday (most can see that this wave failed to make new highs on all momentum indicators). Now we can expect -z- of 'b', the devastating equivalent of a -c- wave down (with bullish implications to follow). The cycles one can expect now on the downside are the 4 day, 8 day and 5 week cycle lows as well as the equinox turn due Sept 23/24. The 4 day cycle ran last 5 days from Monday to Monday (Sept 10-17) and usually has a variance of +/- one day. The 5 week cycle low is due Sept 21 +/-. The 8 day cycle low usually has a variance of 6 to 10 days and is due today. Last Monday was a FIB 21 days from the August 16 low, with the next important turn date being day 34 or October 4, 2007. There is a 7 week cycle low due around Oct 5 and the Gann 32 is due around Oct 2 +/-. Placing a % channel along the tops of the 4Q's and making an equal bottom has Monday Sept 24 at the .786 retracement near 45.76. I believe the Oct 4 bottom will be 8 days from the Monday Sept 24 expected bottom and be a wave 2 of 'c' of the final wave "Y", hence an important third wave beginning date for the final assault at new highs into mid Oct.

[youmast]

No Gunns, No Elliotts, No Cycles, No Fibs...

It's Leo Melamed's world.

1525

[denleo]

Yuri, what is your analysis for October expiration? Is it also 1525? Thanks Denleo

[youmast]

No, it's not. I'll have the final number by Monday. As of today... my estimate is a bit higher.