9 replies to this topic

[NAV]

seemed to be the consensus opinion on FRAC's thread yesterday. But those perverse night operators seemed to have pushed it the wrong way. To be honest, the odds of gap-up or gap-down were 50/50 yesterday. Tough to call those one's with confidence, unless you just look at a red 60-min candle or ugly look on the close and make a call. The momentum balance need to tilt heavily on one side to call a gap-up or gap-down with high odds. Will we gap-up and go ? It's possible, but odds are low. I would have loved a flat to slightly higher opening and fill the gap, if i were a bull. Now this gap-up makes me a bear for today. I shorted NQ at 1468. Stop above 9/19 swing high. Wide stops as i am plying this as a swing trade and only 100% short (i.e no leverage).

Edited by NAV, 21 September 2007 - 05:51 AM.

[eminimee]

1525 was a good bet for the open and expiry.....now it's OEX after close....hmmmmmm.....what do we have in store today?? I'm light on my feet....float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.

[IndexTrader]

seemed to be the consensus opinion on FRAC's thread yesterday. But those perverse night operators seemed to have pushed it the wrong way. To be honest, the odds of gap-up or gap-down were 50/50 yesterday. Tough to call those one's with confidence, unless you just look at a red 60-min candle or ugly look on the close and make a call. The momentum balance need to tilt heavily on one side to call a gap-up or gap-down with high odds.

Will we gap-up and go ? It's possible, but odds are low. I would have loved a flat to slightly higher opening and fill the gap, if i were a bull. Now this gap-up makes me a bear for today. I shorted NQ at 1468. Stop above 9/19 swing high. Wide stops as i am plying this as a swing trade and only 100% short (i.e no leverage).

I gather you mean 2068 not 1468?

IT

[NAV]

seemed to be the consensus opinion on FRAC's thread yesterday. But those perverse night operators seemed to have pushed it the wrong way. To be honest, the odds of gap-up or gap-down were 50/50 yesterday. Tough to call those one's with confidence, unless you just look at a red 60-min candle or ugly look on the close and make a call. The momentum balance need to tilt heavily on one side to call a gap-up or gap-down with high odds.

Will we gap-up and go ? It's possible, but odds are low. I would have loved a flat to slightly higher opening and fill the gap, if i were a bull. Now this gap-up makes me a bear for today. I shorted NQ at 1468. Stop above 9/19 swing high. Wide stops as i am plying this as a swing trade and only 100% short (i.e no leverage).

I gather you mean 2068 not 1468?

IT

What's wrong with me ?

Correct - it's 2068.

[arbman]

Semis are breaking out and leading, I would wait to sell short here...

[NAV]

Semis are breaking out and leading, I would wait to sell short here...

Breaking out and leading ? - the weakest among all the indices and the only index yet to take out the 9/4 swing highs.

[arbman]

Semis are breaking out and leading, I would wait to sell short here...

Breaking out and leading ? - the weakest among all the indices and the only index yet to take out the 9/4 swing highs.

Wait until it turns, it broke above the declining trendline from the July highs...

http://ichart.financ...,^XWH,^IWH&.png

[dcengr]

As I've said before, when FF polls get near 30% fully short, the move down is pretty much non-existant... Until these guys get flushed out, there's no down side.

[NAV]

Added to shorts at NQ 2075. My average cost is now around 2071.5. I am 200% short now. Stop remains at the 9/19 swing high. If i get taken out, i take a hit of about 1% on my account. We'll see...

Edited by NAV, 21 September 2007 - 11:26 AM.

[NAV]

Just can't trust these OPEX days. Sold half my position from 2075 for 4 points profit. Now back to 100% short. That brings the cost basis on my other half to 2072. Stops at the same place 2081. That's it for the day. No need to watch the prices anymore.