2 replies to this topic

[Tor]

DJIA (13,815.56) / S&P 500 The DJIA rose to 13,867 (S&P 500: 1,538) on September 19. Given a turning point at 13,891 (1,540), we expect the indices to hit the second peak (the first one was marked in July) around this level. A fall below 13,494 (1,496) may suggest the first signal of hitting the second peak. However, if the DJIA tops the July high (14,021), our view of peaking at the July high will be proved incorrect. In so, we expect a move toward 14,563 next, which should be an important peak. A cycle of hitting lows every 18months suggests that the indices hit a cycle top at their July highs (if the indices top the July highs, they may hit cycle peaks in September–October). We view October-December 2007 as an ideal timing for completion of the 18-month cycle; we think this suggests downside risk. We think the indices have also yet to mark an 8-year cycle low. Based on past 8-year cycles, the DJIA and S&P 500 may fall 20-30% from their peaks. We intend to keep a close eye on trends, going forward. The DAX rose briefly to 7,771 on September 19, hitting a new rebound high since August. Given a 61.8% retracement of the July high (8,151)-the August low (7,190) is 7,783, we think that the rebound may well be completed. A fall through 7,588 (filling the September 18-19 gap) going forward may be a sign of the completion. Nikkei 225 (16,381.54) We think that upward cycle wave I since 2003 was completed at the February high (18,300) or the July high (18,297; failure top), and corrective cycle wave II is ongoing, which is expected to last until October 2007- July 2008 (timing for a 54-month cycle low). We view corrective cycle wave II as a countermove against the 4-year long bullish market. As such, we think it is reasonable to see the size of the correction will be largest since 2003. If so, the index could fall more than 20% (the decline rate of the April-June 2006 drop) in the ongoing correction. A 20% decline from the Nikkei 225’s February high is 14,640 (1,458 for TOPIX). Our ideal target for the Nikkei 225 is 14,045-14,213 (June 2006 low – a 38.2% retracement of the rise from the March 2003 low to the February high), slightly below 14,640. Based on the view that the entire ascending wave (5) since June 2006 formed a diagonal triangle pattern, we also view 14,045 (a starting point of the diagonal pattern) as the most appropriate bottom. We expect the Nikkei 225 to reach these targets in October. The size of the rebound from the August 17 low (15,262 for Nikkei 225, 1,479 for TOPIX) is the largest among the recent rebound. Accordingly, we think the move can be counted as either wave 2 of wave © or wave (. We are now at the point of determining whether the rebound is completed or still ongoing. A rise above the 40-day MA level (16,476) going forward may lead to a test of 16,575-16,779. However, a fall below 16,142 could strengthen a view that the index has entered wave iii of wave 3 of wave © or dynamic downtrend wave 3 of wave ©. The Nikkei 225’s 100-day and 200-day MA lines are about to form a dead cross (likely to be formed within a week). A ‘positive’ dead cross like this has not been seen since 2003. We view this as a sign of downturn, going forward. The TOPIX formed a dead cross on September 13.

[ogm]

We are now at the point of determining whether the rebound is completed or still ongoing. A rise above the
40-day MA level (16,476) going forward may lead to a test of 16,575-16,779. However, a fall below 16,142
could strengthen a view that the index has entered wave iii of wave 3 of wave © or dynamic downtrend
wave 3 of wave ©.

Who wrote that ?

[Tor]

We are now at the point of determining whether the rebound is completed or still ongoing. A rise above the
40-day MA level (16,476) going forward may lead to a test of 16,575-16,779. However, a fall below 16,142
could strengthen a view that the index has entered wave iii of wave 3 of wave © or dynamic downtrend
wave 3 of wave ©.

Who wrote that ?

MITSINUSHI, have no idea if any good. just thought i would post.