10 replies to this topic

[danzman]

So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the signal to short. Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend to fall faster than they rise. D

[Tor]

So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and
the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the
signal to short.



Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend
to fall faster than they rise.



D

what doea that say to you? thanks for the update

[Russ]

So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and
the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the
signal to short.

Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend
to fall faster than they rise.

D

A little fed manipulation does wonders! :santa:

[arbman]

So your "system" gives you only 100% long or 100% short? I don't get it, you should at least get something like 100% long, flat, 100% short to avoid these big drawdowns...

[*JB*]

So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and
the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the
signal to short.

Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend
to fall faster than they rise.

D

1 -- why don't you have a secondary get out like a trend line??
2 -- markets fall faster than they go up is an old adage that has some truth, but -- IMO -- it is trumped by "market go faster where they have recently been" (IOW -- they retrace faster, up or down).

[qqqqtrdr]

[quote name='*JB*' date='Sep 22 2007, 03:52 AM' post='316646']
[quote name='danzman' post='316629' date='Sep 21 2007, 07:59 PM']
So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and
the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the
signal to short.

Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend
to fall faster than they rise.

I'm looking for an exit point also.. I have multiple signals. Currently the market is overbought, but not overbought to hit much of sell signals. My charts are tilted a little bit more to Sentiment now. Sentiment has been bearish as of recent, but is getting bullish, with put/call going down. OEX put/call is going down also. I'm currently waiting for the 10-day CBOE put/call to drop under .93 before even deciding to change from long.

Barry

[johngeorge]

If danzman is who I think he might be..................he has some excellent long term returns in more than just the stock market using COT data. There are many day traders on this board with some swing traders and generally they are the type that cannot emotionally handle large draw downs. Obviously danzman can and does because he has faith in his system. Best to you

[danzman]

So my COT trading system is still long since June, 2006. Had to weather the drop in February and
the drop in July/August for a max drawdown of 18% (2-1 margin). I'll still post here when I get the
signal to short.

Btw...notice that the S&P 500 climbed up as fast as it fell. Very interesting considering markets tend
to fall faster than they rise.

D

1 -- why don't you have a secondary get out like a trend line??
2 -- markets fall faster than they go up is an old adage that has some truth, but -- IMO -- it is trumped by "market go faster where they have recently been" (IOW -- they retrace faster, up or down).

Answer to (1): Because I would make less money

Answer to (2): I can prove markets go down faster than they rise. "Some" truth is not acurate. It's 100%

true.



D

If danzman is who I think he might be..................he has some excellent long term returns in more than just the stock market using COT data. There are many day traders on this board with some swing traders and generally they are the type that cannot emotionally handle large draw downs. Obviously danzman can and does because he has faith in his system.
Best to you

Faith definition: Belief that is not based on proof.



I don't have faith in my systems.



Johngeorge. I wish to remain anonymous as not to influence this board.



D

[*JB*]

If danzman is who I think he might be..................he has some excellent long term returns in more than just the stock market using COT data. There are many day traders on this board with some swing traders and generally they are the type that cannot emotionally handle large draw downs. Obviously danzman can and does because he has faith in his system.
Best to you

And well he should have faith in his system if he is going to trade it.

Trading is not (or shouldn't be about emotions) and managing a trade to minimize drawdowns or maximizing profits need not be about fear. In my case it is not about fear, but what I consider good money management ... period!

My point is why does he take on large draw downs if it is not -- IMO -- necessary, especially when classic TA offers sound methods to make MORE money by minimizing the draw downs during retracements -- with the ability to re-enter at a lower price in the same direction as the systems longer term signal.

I was simply asking him if he considered other things to minimize the draw down.

I was NOT criticizing -- or even debating him -- just curious ( especially given the week's lag in COT data reporting ). Maybe, if he answered with a little detail I could learn something new! I have no problem -- in fact I couldn't care less -- how other people trade.

Some people here have a bad habit of attributing things to others on which they have no bases to do so.

Edited by *JB*, 22 September 2007 - 09:43 PM.

[*JB*]

Answer to (1): Because I would make less money

Answer to (2): I can prove markets go down faster than they rise. "Some" truth is not acurate. It's 100%
true.

1 -- See my answer to Johngeorge
2 -- By some truth, I meant -- IMO not the WHOLE picture (truth). I apologize if I sounded like I was saying you were wrong...I wasn't!

I was trying to say it is not what I CONSIDER the WHOLE picture.

Again IMO, it's about how retracements act -- up or down.

It may be true that markets go down faster then up -- but they go up pretty fast, too. Parabolic rises are fast, and often just as fast markets taking a tumble.

I don't care if a car headed south is going 120mph and a car going north is going 100mph. They both are going fast.

To me it is prudent to treat them both the same.

Edited by *JB*, 22 September 2007 - 10:03 PM.