6 replies to this topic

[underabigw]

My first chart so be gentle. Just trying to give something back to the board.
It's a simple chart but it does have something to say.

I'm not looking for a fight here. I agree that market internals have greatly
improved and I'm looking to buy the dips, if we get any. That said, I am
bothered by this chart. I think this situation must improve before any
parabolic up move in stocks. And, the dollar will probably need to rally
before the Transports can improve due to the high price of crude. Needless
to say, high price of crude impacts both transporation and the consumer.

If you want to see crude spike 40% higher overnight, then let OPEC peg
the price of oil to the Euro (1.4 to the dollar). This is why the US
government must do something soon to rally the dollar.

Good luck to all and thanks for having such a great board.

[mss]

Very nice chart and you make a valid point. Feel free to jump in any time, we all are stil learning new stuff. mss

[underabigw]

mss, Thanks for the encouragement. I hope to be able to contribute more in the future. UBW

[spielchekr]

$TRAN has a fresh death cross now (50ma below 200ma). The way I see it, a death cross warning is in effect until a candlestick can close above the dashed green line (the 50ma rollover/rollunder threshold), with subsequent days holding above that particular line. That's because the 50ma (solid green line) will continue in a descending slope until the moment price climbs above the dashed green line. That's the way simple moving averages work. And until the 50ma changes slope direction from down to up, it cannot even begin to think about crossing above the 200ma. Unless of course, the 200ma should ever decelerate faster than the 50ma. Mid-November would be the first opportunity for that scenario to possibly happen, should price actually be below both the red and green dashed lines at that time (note that the dashed red line is above the dashed green line for that time period, and the dashed lines do not fluxuate by definition because they are simply offset prices from 50 and 200 days ago).

BTW, price must get anywhere below the red dashed line (200ma rollover/rollunder threshold) to cause the 200ma to roll over into a negative slope. As you can see, price still has a little bit of slack to drop for the next three weeks (to the December low actually) without rolling the 200ma over.

In a nutshell, if price blows below that (currently descending) dashed red line and can't get back above it, especially by early October when the dashed red threshold begins to accelerate upward again, the death cross warning would not only be valid, it would likely be deadly, as in a "Red October". Until then, what me worry?

[eminimee]

Even though both counts are the same....I'm showing both as it's a time like this that we may see a new high (for this move) with out the other confirming....
Something to watch for...
The "1" would be of an ED, the "B" either of a triangle or something more bearish calling for a visit to the lows.
What ever...if we can make a slight new high and reverse......at least 1475 should be seen no matter the count.
fwiw and imvho.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=27&i=p08771661086&a=93045759&r=3707.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=10&i=p77614567004&a=79663062&r=4049.png

[VolPivots]

Crude in the price/time area......

[eminimee]

MN...fit's with a count I have....although it's probably not believable that we could see 50 dollar oil before we head to 100. Could see 85 before a collapse.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=W&st=1989-01-01&i=p82427635136&a=95542559&r=6841.png