12 replies to this topic

[danzman]

FWIW, I expect TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) not to occur before late 2009— next year should be a middling to good year— for the stock market (even housing may stabilize a bit). For this year, I think we will still retest the August lows, then it's off to the races. The 'smart money' still has not unloaded, and will probably need a year or so to do so.

Of course, there's always the possibility of an 'accident' or miscalculation before then...

Thank you, I'm off to the store to buy shotgun shells and canned food.



D

[normxxx]

Thank you, I'm off to the store to buy shotgun shells and canned food.

Not to worry; I rate 1917 - 1945 as three overlapping TEOTWAWKIs (Remember, they don't have to be all bad, and many probably will not be. They just have to be socially revolutionary instead of evolutionary.) These included the eras of the U.S. entering upon the world scene and becoming a 900 pound international gorilla, women's lib, part I, and the roaring 1920s; the stock market crash(es) and the depression of the 1930s; and world war II.

Also, the anti-Viet Nam war 1960s through the very inflationary 1970s was a mini-TEOTWAWKI in the way it affected our economic and social outlooks. Suddenly, we learned not to trust implicitly in our government and a lot of retired folk wound up eating dog food (or having to sell their paid up homes), etc.

Edited by normxxx, 23 September 2007 - 05:37 PM.

[normxxx]

Personally I havent seen any evidence at all of "half a quadrillion of derivatives was helplessly out of control", but thats just me.

I believe the current estimate (notional) of (mostly OTC) world derivatives, according to BIS, is $485 trillion. You going to call me a liar for a mere $15 trillion?

Maybe my problem is that I remember Senator Everett Dirksen, he of the velvet voice, saying,
"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money."