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This chart from 1932 displays the very long term wave count for the entire history of America. Wave II was the mid 1800s Civil War era, a lengthy complex shallow correction. The crash of 1929 was a wave IV steep, simple and fast decline. World War II was the wave (2) of V, the Vietnam War was wave (4) of V, and Gulf War was wave 2 of (5) of V. The orthodox end of America occurred at the year 2000 market top. Since the year 2000 high our Politics have collapsed as the 2000 election was a total disaster, our Military has invaded a sovereign country for pre-emptive purposes and our standard of living is collapsing as we send our manufacturing base overseas. Our currency has collapsed since the 2000 top and the NASDAQ market dropped 95%. It is very easy to see how America is falling apart since the 2000 top. Price wise the orthodox top of an extended market is never the ultimate price top. It requires many years to form the first "A" wave down and the new high "B" wave. Time is now seven years into this process that may be complete at the July 19th high or we have one higher high in November before the real bear market selling begins.
In the lower RH corner the pattern for an irregular wave "AB" top is displayed from the Master works of RN Elliott. Two rules to be aware of with this pattern. An extension is never the price end, the wave "B" will be a higher high and once wave "B" is complete price quickly returns to the level where the extension began which is 1994s year of trading.
I placed the dates on the pattern to display where the market is at in the pattern. The wave "B" top is either in at the 1550s or it continues up to 1605 by November. Notice the pattern calls for wave "C" to drop to the area of the next lower degree wave 4? That indicates once this "B" wave has topped and the five waves down "C" gets underway the market will drop to the 1994 price zone.
This chart breaks down the market advance from the wave "A" low of 2002. The basis for the analysis comes from Fibonacci time extensions based on the October 2002 low and the March 2003 low and Jims 360 day cycle or in weeks 72 weeks. The March 2003 low is a combined 9 month or 180 day half cycle of the 360 day cycle. At the 1.382 extension we see the 9 month low and at 1.618 we see another combined 72 week/9 month low. At the 2.0 extension another 9 month half cycle low and at 2.382 another combined 72 week/9 months low in June 2006.
Now we get to the bottom line 72 week cycle analysis from June 2006. If we simply do a Fibonacci time breakdown of 72 weeks the .382 date is the week of 9-21-07. The .50 date is the week of 11-23-07 and the .618 date is the week of 1-18-08. Friday was the .50 date so we either break below 1490 support this week or it holds and we continue on up toward 1605 by 11-23-07.
This daily chart zooms in on 2007. From the 2006 low we have two Fibonacci price targets for the "B" wave top. The .78 1550s area and the 1.0 at 1605. From the 1370 August low we have wave 1524 and 1540 as price targets. The 1540 level was achieved Wednesday as the index peeked above the 2006 low regression line. The normal expectation for this pattern would see a drop near the red lower channel line with 1470s as solid support.
Bottom line; the analysis on these pages calls for the orthodox end of the growth expansion of America from the 1700s to year 2000 is now in the final days of an irregular new high wave "B" with 1605 in November as that target price time high. The pattern then calls for a five waves down wave "C" that will not bottom until it trades into the 1994 price range.
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