4 replies to this topic

[zedor]

MSNBC



We are in a bear market. Might not seem that way to all but we are.

The top was in July of this year and we are now floundering about trying to put in a lower -- secondary top in most indexes.

As with the wall of worry in a bull market there is a Slope of Hope in a bear. Better get used to it,

Here some of the refrains one will hear as part of the Slope of Hope

1. the fed will cut again

2. banks will refinance

3 real estate is not really that bad

4 the UAW strike wont be long and wont affect anything

5 89 million without health insurance does not matter nor will it affect the market

6 politics does not matter to the market

7 wars dont matter to the market

8 inflation does not matter

9 consumer confidence does not matter

10 car sales dont matter

11 a falling dollar is good -- the more the better

12 inflation is good for the market -- the FED will print us out of trouble

13 sentiment ain't that bad

14 the short interest is so high stocks cant go down

15 there are many good sound businesses out there

16 so a few companies go bk who give a rat's a**

17 the 4.5 year cycle bottom is in so we now must go up for years to come

18 democracy is taking over the world and thus people will just buy stocks forever and never sell.

These are just some of the hopes and prayers of the bulls in the bear market

Edited by zedor, 25 September 2007 - 10:06 AM.

[Remo]

MSNBC


We are in a bear market. Might not seem that way to all but we are.

Yup, real estate bear market with traditional slope of hope attached? Just one more reason to prefer stocks (except real estate sector)

Stocks
Real Estate

[nimblebear]

Housing price declines will continue much longer than most think. The inventory just keeps on building and building. Think about it. Most everyone who needed a house has one. Those who cannot afford just will rent. With unemployment at 4.6%, there isn't too much more room to expand the buyer base, if any. The whole chain up the ladder freezes because sellers always need a "move up" buyer, unless of course the buyer is a transferee. This whole thing is occurring when the economy is supposed to be really cranking. What happens when it actually slows ? More inventory. And yet builders keep building until they run out of dough. Ouch !

[TTHQ Staff]

[quote]We are in a bear market. Might not seem that way to all but we are.[/quote]

It doesn't SEEM like we are because we're not.

Here some of the refrains one will hear as part of the Slope of Hope

[quote]1. the fed will cut again[/quote]

Almost assured. Maybe not this month or the next, but soon.

[quote]2. banks will refinance [/quote]

Yeah, and?????

[quote]3 real estate is not really that bad[/quote]

It's bad, agreed. But how bas is "that bad" exactly?

[quote]4 the UAW strike wont be long and wont affect anything[/quote]

Read the news lately? It's over. And it didn't affect anything.

[quote]5 89 million without health insurance does not matter nor will it affect the market[/quote]

Agreed. Health insurance does not matter nor will it affect the market.

[quote]6 politics does not matter to the market[/quote]

Politics does not matter to the market.

[quote]7 wars dont matter to the market[/quote]

Actually, wars are rather bullish, historically.

[quote]8 inflation does not matter[/quote]

But inflation does matter.

[quote]9 consumer confidence does not matter[/quote]

Consumer confidence is irrelevant.

[quote]10 car sales dont matter[/quote]

Car sales are irrelevant.

[quote]11 a falling dollar is good -- the more the better [/quote]

Not sure the correlation. Irrelevant.

[quote]12 inflation is good for the market -- the FED will print us out of trouble[/quote]

Nope, inflation is not good for the market.

[quote]13 sentiment ain't that bad [/quote]

Aint that good either.

[quote]14 the short interest is so high stocks cant go down[/quote]

Anyone who says stocks can't go down is either a fool or a politician.

[quote]15 there are many good sound businesses out there[/quote]

Uh, there are.

[quote]16 so a few companies go bk who give a rat's a**[/quote]

A few companies go bankrupt every day. Been that way for decades. Not new.

[quote]17 the 4.5 year cycle bottom is in so we now must go up for years to come[/quote]

"Must" ? See reply to #14. Same in reverse.

[quote]18 democracy is taking over the world and thus people will just buy stocks forever and never sell.[/quote]

Non sequitur.

[OEXCHAOS]

Fully quote problem.

[quote name='TTHQ Staff' date='Sep 27 2007, 09:53 AM' post='317509'] [quote]We are in a bear market. Might not seem that way to all but we are.[/quote]

It doesn't SEEM like we are because we're not.

[quote]Here some of the refrains one will hear as part of the Slope of Hope

1. the fed will cut again[/quote]

Almost assured. Maybe not this month or the next, but soon.

[quote]2. banks will refinance [/quote]

Yeah, and?????

[quote]3 real estate is not really that bad[/quote]

It's bad, agreed. But how bas is "that bad" exactly?

[quote]4 the UAW strike wont be long and wont affect anything[/quote]

Read the news lately? It's over. And it didn't affect anything.

[quote]5 89 million without health insurance does not matter nor will it affect the market[/quote]

Agreed. Health insurance does not matter nor will it affect the market.

[quote]6 politics does not matter to the market[/quote]

Politics does not matter to the market.

[quote]7 wars dont matter to the market[/quote]

Actually, wars are rather bullish, historically.

[quote]8 inflation does not matter[/quote]

But inflation does matter.

[quote]9 consumer confidence does not matter[/quote]

Consumer confidence is irrelevant.

[quote]10 car sales dont matter[/quote]

Car sales are irrelevant.

[quote]11 a falling dollar is good -- the more the better [/quote]

Not sure the correlation. Irrelevant.

[quote]12 inflation is good for the market -- the FED will print us out of trouble[/quote]

Nope, inflation is not good for the market.

[quote]13 sentiment ain't that bad [/quote]

Aint that good either.

[quote]14 the short interest is so high stocks cant go down[/quote]

Anyone who says stocks can't go down is either a fool or a politician.

[quote]15 there are many good sound businesses out there[/quote]

Uh, there are.

[quote]16 so a few companies go bk who give a rat's a**[/quote]

A few companies go bankrupt every day. Been that way for decades. Not new.

[quote]17 the 4.5 year cycle bottom is in so we now must go up for years to come[/quote]

"Must" ? See reply to #14. Same in reverse.

[quote]18 democracy is taking over the world and thus people will just buy stocks forever and never sell.[/quote]

Non sequitur.

[/quote]