8 replies to this topic

[Doug]

NDX will finish between 2095 and 2096 SPY will finish right at 153 (give or take a nickle) SPX will finish just below 1530 OEX will finish at 716.75 and QQQQ who knows?? Regards,

[OEXCHAOS]

That's a fearless forecast! Welcome, Doug. A number of our readers are from SC and environs. Mark Founder Traders-Talk.com

[eminimee]

You must be off to the golf course then. lol

[Doug]

That's a fearless forecast!

Welcome, Doug. A number of our readers are from SC and environs.

Mark
Founder
Traders-Talk.com

Nice to hear from the founder (I bow low),

Regards,

You must be off to the golf course then. lol

I do have trouble finding ways to fill my time.

Regards,

[OEXCHAOS]

Doug, I'm moving your other post to the health and sanity board, where it's more appropriate. Love having another Reason reader on TT. I've been a subscriber for 2 years. We read it cover to cover. Mark

[davewooldridge]

Doug, how did you arrive at your targets? Thanks Dave

[Doug]

Doug, how did you arrive at your targets? Thanks Dave

Hi there, davewooldridge,

I know you want a simple answer but there really isn't one. I prepare and study charts in detail. Examine economic data and historical similarities. From that I make my trades. (Just like everyone else).

I based that forecast on my reading of internals and my conclusion that the sideways motion will continue due to the end-of-quarter window dressing. I observed that much of the window-dressing money was going to big caps and techs. Certainly the NDX benefited from buying in both categories today, with the NDX opening a few cents above 2100. That pushed the NDX to a level not seen since February 2001, if I'm reading my charts correctly. The NDX closed just off that high of the day, however, trading in a tight range but never again reaching the early high.

After the credit-crunch scares of recent weeks, some attributed this week's stock performance to relief that the U.S. hasn't produced our version of the U.K.'s Northern Rock and to other signs that the credit crunch may be easing. Many of that U.K. bank's customers stood in lines outside the bank's branches a couple of weeks ago, withdrawing their life savings. Yesterday's announcement that Tracinda might take a position in Mastercard (MA) helped create the feeling that the credit problem was easing.

The underperformance of the financials by some parameters yesterday seemed to refute that second argument. Some individual financials such as C and some indices such as the BIX closed minimally higher, but C closed below its opening level and the BIX produced a small-bodied candle in a congestion zone. The BKX produced a slightly stronger candle but didn't even top Wednesday's high and stopped near its 50-sma. Those doing the window dressing didn't seem to want too many financials on their books at quarter's end.

Volume patterns didn't exactly sound an enthusiastic affirmation of the bounce, either. Volume was again okay yesterday but not particularly big. For example, with the NDX pushing above 2100 at one point, volume on the Nasdaq exchange was far less than 2 billion.

Therefore, I concluded we would end pretty much where we started. No genius here.

Regards,

[davewooldridge]

Thanks Doug, will be reading your posts with interest.

[Doug]

NDX will finish between 2095 and 2096 - 2091.11 A little short of my prediction

SPY will finish right at 153 (give or take a nickle) - 152.58 a tad low but it rose after hours

SPX will finish just below 1530 - 1526.75 So-so but still short of my prediction

OEX will finish at 716.75 - 714.49 Also short of my prediction

and

QQQQ who knows?? - 51.41 Who knew

Regards,