2 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

$USD closed at 77.72 and is heading to measured target 76.


http://investorshub....age_id=23252526

$USD daily is showing positive divergence at LT support; however, weekly price action is weak - targeting to 76.

http://investorshub....age_id=23237939


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=W&st=1980-02-06&i=p85035956242&a=97283781&r=31.png

http://www.http://in...age_id=23044738


SPX & USD
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1970-01-01&i=p77566946021&a=117316241&r=93.png



Strengthening Dollar
Advantages

* Consumer sees lower prices on foreign products/services.
* Lower prices on foreign products/services help keep inflation low.
* U.S. consumers benefit when they travel to foreign countries.
* U.S. investors can purchase foreign stocks/bonds at "lower" prices.

Disadvantages

* U.S. firms find it harder to compete in foreign markets.
* U.S. firms must compete with lower priced foreign goods.
* Foreign tourists find it more expensive to visit U.S.
* More difficult for foreign investors to provide capital to U.S. in times of heavy U.S. borrowing.

Weakening Dollar
Advantages

* U.S. firms find it easier to sell goods in foreign markets.
* U.S. firms find less competitive pressure to keep prices low.
* More foreign tourists can afford to visit the U.S.
* U.S. capital markets become more attractive to foreign investors.

Disadvantages

* Consumers face higher prices on foreign products/services.
* Higher prices on foreign products contribute to higher cost-of-living.
* U.S. consumers find traveling abroad more costly.
* Harder for U.S. firms and investors to expand into foreign markets.


~~~


Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:9/24/2007 5:42:22 PM
Post #of 3062

$USD made a new all time low at 78.31 below 78.33 tweeze LT support.

It shows positive divergences, so let's see whether it will bounce up, but LT target to 76.

~~~

Not So Fast On Weak Dollar Concerns

By CNBC.com | 24 Sep 2007 | 10:54 AM ET

There's a lot of concern about whether a weaker dollar could cause higher U.S. inflation, but CNBC’s Steve Liesman says not so fast. Here, he offers a quick overview of different ways to think about the influence of the currency on the inflation process:

* The dollar is an inflation factor, not the inflation factor
* Imports make up just 16 percent of the U.S. GDP. Imports have risen as a percent of total U.S. economic activity. A lot of import growth has come from countries that have fixed exchange rates to the dollar, like China and other Southeast Asian countries, so a weaker dollar has no inflation impact from them.
* Wages are the biggest cost, not commodities or imports

Imports vs. Domestic Prices

A look at the year-over-year change of consumer import prices vs. core inflation finds only a modest relationship. There are two reasons for that:

* The United States is mostly a service economy and wages are the biggest input to costs in a service economy.
* The U.S. makes up 25 percent of the world's economy all in one market. As a result, most economists see the U.S. as a price maker, not a price taker.

So, what happens to the U.S. economy will determine what happens to import prices. Import prices will not determine what the price levels are in the U.S.


http://www.cnbc.com/.../site/14081545/

[Trend-Signals]

After the strong move on 9/18, markets were consolidating - SPX, DOW, and Nasdaq, while Qs trending up.

The consolidating volumes suggest that bears are fully short and bulls are waiting for a confirmation.

While DOW p/c and SPX p/c are showing bearish note, Equity p/c is continuing to be positive; therefore, need to be cautious.

A breakout from SPX 1555, after 8 trading day consolidation, will make strong moves to upside fueled by full short positions.


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83296922719&a=115499637&r=309.png

~~~

Feeds and Information which posted on the other board. Since I posted pros and cons on $USD, I am seeing less heated argument over $USD.

INFORMATION OVERLOAD: We have information overload age with news media and web blogs. Usually, different views are based on "Partially informed" views focusing on particular area.

For example, I noticed "Heated argument over falling dollar" focusing on either "pros or cons" for both "rise and fall of dollar" as if either pros points are absolutely right.

You can have thousands of news through feeds. Easy, effective, efficient feeder is Yahoo. Using Yahoo Feeds will allow you that you can follow your choice selectively. Yahoo feeds is very easy, just sign on and import to your feed page. You can also feed iHub boards to your Yahoo feed page and doing so will not mark the boards which you are importing to Yahoo feeder. I am sure that most of professionals use feeders.

With partially informed news and opinions, it will only confuse you for vst, ST and IT trades, for most of us, therefore, it is better to stay focus on price actions which is a lot simpler than following millions of news and blogs or following wrong crowds.

[Trend-Signals]

We have the best September performance since 1998. As commented since 8/16 reversal call, markets are now confirmed the inverse H&S formation.

ASSUMING market will reverse with ST top will be costly at this juncture as noted that market formation shows 1998 price pattern.

With full short level, a breakout as market did in 1998 will fuel markets higher.

Will be reassessing market actions.


~~~


"Beak" Formation

The formation is awesome. As noted before, Qs formation is completed and now it made new high.

SPX, Nasdaq, and DOW are lagging.

We can see the 8/16 beak formation.


http://investorshub....age_id=22975687






http://www.stockchar...09398&r=213.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=24&i=p41776631717&a=79285156&r=785.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=24&i=p87215781090&a=115940541&r=909.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=24&i=p52039185262&a=95692191&r=678.png