12 replies to this topic

[Bob-C]

Hi everyone, FYI, read "The Death Of Investment" by Alan M. Newman from www.cross-currents.net.

Enjoy and have a nice day.

Cheers,

Bob-C

[Sentient Being]

Bob, thanks for the article. I'm getting the idea that you feel that the stock market may be due for some dull, boring downside which could last for years making people wish they held more bonds and other assets?

[da_cheif]

Hi everyone, FYI, read "The Death Of Investment" by Alan M. Newman from www.cross-currents.net.

Enjoy and have a nice day.

Cheers,

Bob-C

he.s been fighting the tape like tice and others for years.......ever see newman bullish???? not.......we need them we love them and we cant live without them...... ...bulls get no respect..........and thats a good thing.......above 20k on the dow all that will change.........sigh

[ogm]

I've read that article. Its a bunch of crap, IMO. Stock market doesn't have to be dull to be considered investment. I think that guy has missed a lot of gains over the years, probably due to his own scepticism and is very disgruntled. You can still buy and hold stocks for the long term, like in the 50s, which he consideres "normal" times. Or you can trade in an ocean of liquidity. Pick your own style. This market has it all. I think fast information dissimination, new technologies and lower commissions are part of the reason we have a transition from lower trading volumes to higher trading volumes. On top of many other things. I'm surprized Carl Swenlin has posted this junk on his website as a Spotlight chart... haha..

[Sentient Being]

he.s been fighting the tape like tice and others for years.......ever see newman bullish???? not.......we need them we love them and we cant live without them...... ...bulls get no respect..........and thats a good thing.......above 20k on the dow all that will change.........sigh

Expecting downside of possibly great duration time wise or price wise doesn't mean one is not long, right?

[Bob-C]

Bob, thanks for the article.

I'm getting the idea that you feel that the stock market may be due for some dull, boring downside which could last for years making people wish they held more bonds and other assets?

You're very welcome SB, thanks for your excellent insights. IMHO, there is a potential that the Fed will continue its actions to pump up the housing market and the economy which will generate a rise in bonds and a concomitant decrease in yields over the ST to possibly the IT. IMVHO, over the VST and ST (through most of November, i.e., until close to the November OPEX) there will be a very sharp decline in the equity market (punctuated by VST DCAT rallies) that will potentially create a VST extremely oversold equity market. There could then be a very strong year-end rally followed by another sharp decline in the spring. After that I remain open to the possibility that there could be a powerful upleg in the equity market lasting at least 1-2 years and that the NASDAQ and the QQQQs may eventually tag and/or exceed their 2000 highs; TWT. IMHO, the purpose of any potential sharp declines in the equitiy market between now and possibly next spring is to enable the PTB to cover their short sales of stocks and stock-index futures contracts profitably and to accumulate stocks in their long-term-inventory accounts for themselves and their clients for the long term and for capital-gains purposes.

Have a happy and successful day!

Bob

[arbman]

I was just going to say, a lot of the volume is also short selling, especially on the ETFs. The short selling is again around the all time high. The hedgers use margin to sell short as well...

[Bob-C]

I was just going to say, a lot of the volume is also short selling, especially on the ETFs. The short selling is again around the all time high. The hedgers use margin to sell short as well...

Hi Kisa, nice to hear from you, thanks for your insights and observations . IMVHO, the PTB has been distributing and then selling short stocks and stock-index futures contracts preparatory to a VST to ST sharp decline which may be in force by this coming Thursday and/or Friday or sooner. Keep your eye on the VIX. There was very poor volume (very light volume) on the QQQQs, NASDAQ, and the NYSE during the current rise.

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 02 October 2007 - 07:15 AM.

[arbman]

Bob, the volume was showing considerable capitulation and accumulation at the lows. I think the shorts will also get squeezed out by the Fed before they will be able to fully cover, yes to 2-3 or even 4-5% declines, but I doubt of a very sharp decline near or below the Aug lows...

bulls get no respect

I am not sure, all of the polls show dramatic bullish shifts...

So which one? A recognition wave or central bank driven short squeeze wave...

[Bob-C]

Bob, the volume was showing considerable capitulation and accumulation at the lows. I think the shorts will also get squeezed out by the Fed before they will be able to fully cover, yes to 2-3 or even 4-5% declines, but I doubt of a very sharp decline near or below the Aug lows...

bulls get no respect

I am not sure, all of the polls show dramatic bullish shifts...

So which one? A recognition wave or central bank driven short squeeze wave...

Hi Kisa, thanks for the information and insights.

Cheers,

Bob-C