7 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Maybe....but I'm still in the camp that says it won't confirm the new highs made yesterday on OEX. If the spx:vix breaks out...then I'll be changing my tune short term....but still see at least 5% downside coming on spx.

fwiw blah blah..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77296892999&a=57601821&r=9050.png

[eminimee]

[ogm]

I have to say I'm very surprized how sceptical you've been through most of this rally. I remember you were expecting a countertrend 30 point move down on SPX many days ago, and it never came, and you've been trying to catch it ever since, even though IMO most of the evidence from your own charts was pointing otherwise. But I think that idea that you must catch that countertrend dip got stuck in your head and influenced your judgement. I think the way the oscillators on weekly charts are positioned, there is enough room to take out new highs and then some. MACD, RSI, Stoch, etc.... are all in the upward move and have room to run. Internals are very strong too. Of course there will be some kind of dip at some point. Just an observation. Bash away.

[eminimee]

I was looking for a turn at when spx was trading around 1539 almost two weeks ago.... and have been sceptical since then....I was mostly long until then and then caught most of the move from ES 1551 to the 1520 area. I was stopped out of my nq short yesterday at about breakeven if you add in my es trading hedge. I scalped ES long yesterday from 53.50 ...dumped half at 57.50 and the rest at 59. Flat now and still sceptical. Still seeing this a topping a wave 1 of an ED or B wave.

[eminimee]

Still in this count...
OGM...I'm not sure where you thought I was becoming sceptical of this rally but I was major long from the C wave bottom. (and I was major short from the top of B I might add) I've only tried to short this market when I thought we might turn when OEx finished it's 5th up. It has gone a little further than first thought but I'll stick with the count for now.
http://www.traders-t...?...c=76715&hl=

Two charts I posted on July 16th
http://www.tradingth...hourly_5016.png

http://www.tradingth...10_min_5000.png

PS. On the oex hourly (first link)...I'm expecting one more down/up move to finish 1 of ED or B. fwiw

Edited by Teaparty, 02 October 2007 - 08:18 AM.

[ogm]

Sorry, I may be wrong. But last couple weeks I was under impression that you're trying to pick a ST top for some kind of a small countretrend move.

[arbman]

A sell off from the gap up and then an afternoon rally and a higher high at the close, probably consolidating here for a day or two more ahead of the payroll. I think either a rally with the payroll or a few days into next week should mark the 10 wk top. I expect a doji or hanging man there for the next week's candle. Where the market tops for the 10 wk will let us refine the 20 wk cycle projection highs for Dec. The 10 wk cycle low might also be another hammer only...

Edited by kisacik, 02 October 2007 - 08:31 AM.

[eminimee]

I was and I did....I shorted down to 1525 from the 1550 area...can't remember exactly where I got short up there but had several good short scalps. Took a few long scalps after that too and then started shorting NQ because I thought I saw something while I kept a long trading hedge on ES....obviously didn't work out for me but no pain. Now looking for a swing short. I'm going to stick with ES this time and forget about NQ. Would like to short ES at 1569 ish. ..or the first 15 min sell signal I get.
I was updating this until I got stopped out yesterday
fwiw

http://www.traders-t...?...c=76771&hl=