15 replies to this topic

[iloli way]

http://www.minyanvil...7/index/a/14311

"That’s what makes the call so difficult: We are in the timeframe for a test of the July high based on both time and price considerations. However, given the symmetry and the current position of the market, my judgment is that either the S&P should not go much higher than the July high unless the message of the market is that it is going substantially higher.

In that sense the strategy here actually becomes rather clear: either the market is very close to a high or it is going much higher, right here right now. Importantly, as occurred in July, if the market fails to follow-through and offsets Monday’s “breakout, it may prove to be a fractal of the crystal clear “breakout” on July 12 this year.

Clearly, the S&P appears to be in a strong position, having captured the 1529 low of the July 20 sell signal bar as well as the 1540 level of the June 1st high.

At the same time, another failed breakout and test failure here should define a top in October in a year ending in seven.

With the average stock not following the DJIA’s move and the Dow Transportation Index failing to confirm the action in the DJIA, we have to be defensive no matter how frenzied Monday’s price action. While the above divergences are typical of market tops, it is important to remember that divergences can confound and persist for a while. Be that as it may, if these divergences sink into a reversal, the hunt for Red October may be on."

[ogm]

The amount of scepticism is simply incredible.

[Bob-C]

http://www.minyanvil...7/index/a/14311

"That's what makes the call so difficult: We are in the timeframe for a test of the July high based on both time and price considerations. However, given the symmetry and the current position of the market, my judgment is that either the S&P should not go much higher than the July high unless the message of the market is that it is going substantially higher.

In that sense the strategy here actually becomes rather clear: either the market is very close to a high or it is going much higher, right here right now. Importantly, as occurred in July, if the market fails to follow-through and offsets Monday's "breakout, it may prove to be a fractal of the crystal clear "breakout" on July 12 this year.

Clearly, the S&P appears to be in a strong position, having captured the 1529 low of the July 20 sell signal bar as well as the 1540 level of the June 1st high.

At the same time, another failed breakout and test failure here should define a top in October in a year ending in seven.

With the average stock not following the DJIA's move and the Dow Transportation Index failing to confirm the action in the DJIA, we have to be defensive no matter how frenzied Monday's price action. While the above divergences are typical of market tops, it is important to remember that divergences can confound and persist for a while. Be that as it may, if these divergences sink into a reversal, the hunt for Red October may be on."

Thanks for the article goflow.

Cheers,

Bob-C

[hiker]

OGM...when/if SPX 1565 is touched, simply remember that optimism among bulls is at its best at a top...sorry, could not resist since you are pointing out the other side regularly. thanks for all your stock pick ideas....you deserve much credit for taking the time here to share them. I reentered GRMN long yest. at the test of a daily MA, but am not staying forever.

Edited by hiker, 02 October 2007 - 08:24 AM.

[iloli way]

The amount of scepticism is simply incredible.

How is "amount'..."incredible"? Please tell how do you quantify that remark. Thanks.

Jeff called the July high, see his archive, his opinions deemed consistent as far as I know.

[youmast]

it may prove to be a fractal of ....

And you, Brutus!

How many times I've heard this word?

And I've never seen the market moving in the right direction after this....

[iloli way]

it may prove to be a fractal of ....

And you, Brutus!

How many times I've heard this word?

And I've never seen the market moving in the right direction after this....

well, there's first time for everything, even with my age, I don't rule out unexpected, and I am not THAT old.

[iloli way]

[/quote] Thanks for the article goflow. Cheers, Bob-C [/quote] Thank you, Bob. I maybe less than a month here, do try to keep my money and mouth together.

[airedale88]

don't know who jeff cooper is, but to sum up what he says in that post........ SPX either tops around here or it will go higher. there are divergences that may mean the market has topped but sometimes markets go higher despite divergences. if the market declines signaled by the divergences, maybe it will be a big oct decline. so SPX might go up or down. thats a ballsy call.

[Russ]

"either the S&P should not go much higher than the July high unless the message of the market is that it is going substantially higher." A useless prediction, he has one foot on the exit and one foot on the entrance, talking out of both sides of the mouth.