6 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

on oct 1st i posted ".........today's INDU chart, assuming a strong close above the upper band, can be considered a continuation buy. a close above the upper envelope indicates another 9% to 15% higher from that close before any important sell signal develops."

we got that close above the upper envelope on oct 1st.

nothing has changed. this trading system remains on a very strong buy with no indication for any important sell signal. we're still in the liftoff stage after a 4.5 yr cycle low.

tea, i don't think your 1475 SPX correction is in the cards. that's down near the lower SPX envelope. numerous intermediate breadth signals too strong to allow that..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p59627653443&a=119006855&r=5145.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p79217258854&a=118883049&r=7900.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p55240305129&a=115525885&r=1758.png

Edited by airedale88, 10 October 2007 - 05:37 AM.

[eminimee]

If I said I wasn't worried I'd be lying because I would much rather have my analysis in sync with you. ....but my ewave caught the July top and Aug bottom so I have to go with it for the time being. I know where the capitulation button is. Where we do agree is that the bottom is in on the 4.5 year cycle and this move has a long way to go....and I'm not looking for new lows although the ewave count would allow for it.

[eminimee]

[arbman]

The first step is to close below 1560 (actually 1558) today.

Then, if it can shoot down to 1540 by Friday, there is a chance to decline to 1520 by the end of next week, but this would be the best case decline...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p88453141247&r=6099&.png

- kisa


(you need a real panic at 1520 to have the 5 wk FLD cascade down to 1480 and the 10 wk FLD is really down below so a decline would end before there)

[swingtrader]

on oct 1st i posted ".........today's INDU chart, assuming a strong close above the upper band, can be considered a continuation buy. a close above the upper envelope indicates another 9% to 15% higher from that close before any important sell signal develops."

we got that close above the upper envelope on oct 1st.

nothing has changed. this trading system remains on a very strong buy with no indication for any important sell signal. we're still in the liftoff stage after a 4.5 yr cycle low.

tea, i don't think your 1475 SPX correction is in the cards. that's down near the lower SPX envelope. numerous intermediate breadth signals too strong to allow that..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p59627653443&a=119006855&r=5145.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p79217258854&a=118883049&r=7900.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p55240305129&a=115525885&r=1758.png

Aire,

I am very interested in your comment regarding

"we're still in the liftoff stage"

I am wondering how do you determine the stage. Is it purely hurst cycle based or you use
other technical indicator to define the stage.

Thanks.

- ST

[airedale88]

cycle based. we're approx 10 weeks along from a major cycle low, the 4.5 yr cycle. not only that, the combined trend of cycles larger than 4.5 yrs is very bullish, as evidenced by this last 4.5 yr cycle showing strong high right translation, the price top occurring just a few weeks before the cycle bottom arrived. we are seeing that same high right translation now on the 1st nominal 10 wk cycle after the 4.5 yr cycle bottom, as we just saw new highs as this cycle is ready to bottom over the next few days.

[GOOSE2]

Thanks for sharing AD, you are still the man!