12 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Yesterday the bears had a good chance to take down this market. I had a hourly continuation sell with a projection for SPX 1530-35. Now that sell signal was brutally invalidated, which brings us back again to the question of risk of playing these downswings in a strongly trending markets. The risk is one of losing big upswings trying to game the small corrections. So back to basics. Daytrade the short side and swing trade the long side. I still expect SPX to drop as much as 30-40 points, but then, it could come from higher levels. While i had been only trading in and out the long side from 1450, i made my first attempt last friday to short and got out just in time yesterday. This is a market where price trend oevrrides everything else. So back to the bright side. If the dark side presents itself, i will only daytrade it.

[iloli way]

Rising speculation coming out of an oversold market is a good thing, since it keeps people buying and prices rising. But at some point it becomes too much, and prices are more likely to either decline as that speculation ebbs, or go into a much more choppy environment – kind of a two steps forward, one step back kind of thing. I think we’re quickly approaching that point.

[eminimee]

Neckline is at 110^14, a break through there could be damaging for equities.
Presently trading at 110^18

[NAV]

Rising speculation coming out of an oversold market is a good thing, since it keeps people buying and prices rising. But at some point it becomes too much, and prices are more likely to either decline as that speculation ebbs, or go into a much more choppy environment – kind of a two steps forward, one step back kind of thing. I think we’re quickly approaching that point.

Just to put things in perspective, between 9/10 - 9/19 (7 trading days), we gained about 100 SPX points.

From 9/19 to 10/9 (16 trading days) , we are up just 28 SPX points. But the message board noise is off the charts. That typically happens before pullbacks. Having said that, we still remain in a strong uptrend.

Edited by NAV, 10 October 2007 - 08:19 AM.

[ogm]

I think the big money in this upswing has been already made. It will start getting choppy soon, but the trend is still up. And buying the dips would probably pay more then catching the illusive top. Internals momentum is way too strong for the market to roll over here. As for the bonds, I think its simple asset allocation. Too many people got scared and stuffed their money in the sock. And now they are getting it back out looking to put em to work. I wouldn't pay any attention to bonds here.

Edited by ogm, 10 October 2007 - 08:30 AM.

[NAV]

Internals momentum is way too strong for the market to roll over here.

Educate me.

1) NYSE daily cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

2) NYSE weekly cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

3) 10 day EMA of NYSE Adv-decl (not cumulative) is diverging negatively.

4) NYSE MCO is displaying multiple divergences against price.

5) Nasdaq A/D (daily and weekly) line is a shame (or sham).

What is strong is the price momentum, not the internal momentum.

Edited by NAV, 10 October 2007 - 08:39 AM.

[Sentient Being]

From 9/19 to 10/9 (16 trading days) , we are up just 28 SPX points. But the message board noise is off the charts. That typically happens before pullbacks. Having said that, we still remain in a strong uptrend.

Yes, but from 9-19 to 10-9 the QQQQ are up 6%. I'm up 12.6% since I bought the Q. It's been a great run! I'm also in the S&P and agree that hasn't been as exciting there.

Edited by Sentient Being, 10 October 2007 - 09:11 AM.

[traderpaul]

Internals momentum is way too strong for the market to roll over here.

Educate me.

1) NYSE daily cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

2) NYSE weekly cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

3) 10 day EMA of NYSE Adv-decl (not cumulative) is diverging negatively.

4) NYSE MCO is displaying multiple divergences against price.

5) Nasdaq A/D (daily and weekly) line is a shame (or sham).

What is strong is the price momentum, not the internal momentum.

NAV, i don't get it...You said the same thing on the last top....The bears were toasted.....You ignored the internal.....Yet market turned on a dime.....

[eminimee]

fwiw...ZB hit 110^14 and bounced big...it's obviously a key number.

[NAV]

Internals momentum is way too strong for the market to roll over here.

Educate me.

1) NYSE daily cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

2) NYSE weekly cumulative A/D line is still below July lows.

3) 10 day EMA of NYSE Adv-decl (not cumulative) is diverging negatively.

4) NYSE MCO is displaying multiple divergences against price.

5) Nasdaq A/D (daily and weekly) line is a shame (or sham).

What is strong is the price momentum, not the internal momentum.

NAV, i don't get it...You said the same thing on the last top....The bears were toasted.....You ignored the internal.....Yet market turned on a dime.....

I trade price, not internals. I use internals as just warning, nothing more. I have stops to protect me when i am wrong. Back then in July, i admitted i was wrong after the 1528 pivot was taken out to the downside.

Now you tell me what heppened to your forecast of price staying below 200 SMA for a long time. You dissapeared after that forecast. What went wrong ?