6 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Mark Hulbert's HSNSI increased to 49.9%, which is not a big-time Sell but a pretty large jump in a week. On the Nasdaq, Bullish "exposure" has risen to 53%. Both measures are about where we topped at this summer. I'd say that this data supports a pullback. Advisors are still pretty Beared up on Bonds.

Lazlo Birinyi reported that his Blogger Poll has 53% Bulls and 27% Bears. That's still quite Bullish. That suggests some selling sometime this week.

TheStreet.com reported a jump in Bulls to 63% and a drop in Bears to 17%. This isn't exactly ebullient Bullish sentiment, but it's still quite a few Bulls and not many Bears.

TSPTalk, a larger polling site devoted to savings plan management is flashing another Sell with 61% Bulls and 25% Bears. That's probably worth a short trade this week. Last week's wasn't so great.

Message Board polls are still pretty Beared up. But we've got enough to look for a sell off if we get confirmation.

[denleo]

OK, how many points are you expecting on the downside in NDX and SPX? more than 30 NDX points and 15 SPX points? Denleo

[Pabst]

On top of it Mark, 2 day's ago the ISE weighted p/c was 187 it's 2nd highest single day reading of the year. Yesterday was also a robust 175.

[OEXCHAOS]

Dennis, the 83% Sell signal says at least 15 S&P points. I'm guessing that we get 20-25 or so. That's a guess, however, at the moment. We've barely turned anything down. Mark

[denleo]

Well, as of now S&P is down about 8 points, and NDX 4. Was that it? or will be double that? Denleo

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm short from higher. I think we get more. I'll just watch how things behave. If the bears come out of the woodwork, I think we gotta look back long. If not, perhaps we give it a little room and see what happens. There's an outside chance (improbable) that we get a bigger decline, too. We have adequate Bullishness to support an IT decline, should breadth and price action turn. Mark M

[arbman]

I think the short term daily trend lines will be broken since the momentum is unsustainable with the current upside volume, not enough investors to support here. The lower supports, especially near the Aug lows are solid, crazy volume down there. I think the handle of these cups will be formed and you will see enough volume there. I predict 30-40 SPX points downside. For this week, I think it breaks the daily trendlines and comes back up to close as a weekly doji and tries to break down early next week, finds support and finishes the next week up or with a marginal loss. There is the Oct 30/31 Fed meeting at the end of the month, I think the market will hold up until then and rally into November. I think the market is not going anywhere fast for the second half of Oct and digests this range, then it rallies with the Fed, I am still in the camp that the Fed will offer more free money despite all of the critics of the talking heads about the dollar and inflation. Gold says so. - kisa