8 replies to this topic

[Pabst]

Between the TT poll, CNBC's Mad Money panel, posts on various message boards and conversations with traders, bear sentiment in one hour today rose to heights last seen on the August lows.

Can any of you think of a time when sentiment was this over the top bearish and the shorts were rewarded with anything more than a single afternoon of fleeting glory?

Edited by Pabst, 11 October 2007 - 06:39 PM.

[eminimee]

How are you quantifing all those things you are measuring? Are these the very same things that you quantified back at the lows in Aug too and have comparable numbers? If so ...what are they.

[thespookyone]

I usually prefer to look at what people do, not what they say. Two points here. Equity PC is .60, hardly indicative of "all beared up". Second, after watching the market practically "cliff dive"(not the distance, the SPEED) iinvestors were hardly reticent in jumping right back in-once again dip buying. Neither of these situations is screaming "beared up" to me.

[Russ]

http://tickersense.t...er-8th-blo.html ............53% bullish on poll taken a few days ago.

http://sentimentrader.com/ .... Neutral on poll for today's trading.


http://tsptalk.com/sentiment.html ......... Sell signal as of past two weeks.

[HoseB]

Between the TT poll, CNBC's Mad Money panel, posts on various message boards and conversations with traders, bear sentiment in one hour today rose to heights last seen on the August lows.

Can any of you think of a time when sentiment was this over the top bearish and the shorts were rewarded with anything more than a single afternoon of fleeting glory?

A sentiment measure which can shift from one extreme to the other in such a short time is hardly worth knowing.

[denleo]

This is another one of those famous posts, which can be found here almost daily: everybody is "this" therefore I am the oposite Denleo

[n83]

Between the TT poll, CNBC's Mad Money panel, posts on various message boards and conversations with traders, bear sentiment in one hour today rose to heights last seen on the August lows.

Can any of you think of a time when sentiment was this over the top bearish and the shorts were rewarded with anything more than a single afternoon of fleeting glory?

A sentiment measure which can shift from one extreme to the other in such a short time is hardly worth knowing.

absolutely correct.

[OEXCHAOS]

This is another one of those famous posts, which can be found here almost daily: everybody is "this" therefore I am the oposite

Denleo

It's only meaningful because it's wrong.

Not everyone IS "this".

My sentiment stuff barely budged. That's Bearish near term.

Intra-day sentiment shifts are useful, but only for aobut an hour or so, so you'd better have a good handle on them. I used to use the $weighted P/C's for that, but I've found that I can be thrown off my game too easily with that, so I default to the daily stuff and use voume intra-day.

[Pabst]

IMO, you guy's focus too much on sentiment data instead of feel in regard to which way traders are leaning. To wit: we're now jammin higher.

Look at the posts NOT the polls. Look at the viewership totals of bullish threads (they seldom exist) vs. the usual "Just Shorted SPX" stuff. I contend folks tend to read what justifies their position rather than counter views.

Now from THESE levels (DIA is 14,078 as I type) we may see buyers dry up but coming in this was sure money we'd ramp.