17 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p57757598631&a=90720826&r=189.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p16599240179&a=119373031&r=4707.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p86238021151&a=119373162&r=6343.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p16599240179&a=119372683&r=4053.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p57757598631&a=119376310&r=3265.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=M&st=1983-01-01&i=p16599240179&a=119376198&r=4000.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=6&mn=8&dy=0&i=p81865864641&a=98764574&r=6677.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50463087413&a=106691891&r=4379.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p58398007540&a=79714333&r=7199.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&i=p71507247078&a=119376765&r=7464.png

[underabigw]

Teaparty, Excellent work as usual. The thing that stands out the most to me as a TA novice is the NDX chart and the recent almost parabolic price rise. I would imagine it is at one of the highest points in recent history above its 50 day/week MA. Is this sustainable without some sort of significant correction??? Just out of curiosity, have you applied your work to the Value Line index. That index appears to be the most parabolic in nature over the last few years and might provide insight into how close we might be to a speculative blow-off phase. I know we are in a very strong bull market, but gravity will eventually rear its ugly head. Thanks again for your fine work and for sharing it with us mere mortals. UBW

[eminimee]

thanks ubw....but let's not get carried away....I'm just putting lines on a chart.

[relax]

imo these charts are telling us that we need some commitment and energy in order for us to go higher this is the way it should look before the real battles if we get it it will be a powerful move up in the ST otherwise we will need to get more energy through a correction

[eminimee]

OEX. . . . the question here for me is.... was the expanded flat with the C wave down from the July top the end of wave (ii)of 3...or just an expanded flat A wave....If we are about to embark on a 3 of 3 of 3 up, personally I would like to see the March low tested for the bottom of (ii). For comparison purposes if we hit a top Thursday...a move to 625 OEX would be 15%...and looks like a double bottom could be right on the March 03 uptrend line....and would probably feel like a crash in order to pave the way sentiment wise to start a 3 of 3 of 3 up.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p17729451469&a=83876953&r=9185.png

[relax]

we sure need some panic for a retest of lows everything seems to be business as usual with data and reports giving some hiccups in both directions, but without breaking the trend unless we get some inflation panic this week on wednesday i think we just go up from here and maybe get a retest or close next year starting around feb

[da_cheif]

INFLATION PANIC IS what this bull mkt up is all about.......when an in flationary economic boom is underway the best hedge against inflation is owning things......via debt.....instead of worrying about declines n retests of low n ********.......u shud be worrying about not missing a once in a lifetime bull mkt......why should you worry about a decline when theres an army of professional worriers out there doing it for you.........

Edited by da_cheif, 13 October 2007 - 02:33 PM.

[eminimee]

Who's worried? If I was a mindless bull I'd be worried...I'm a trader...I never worry.....I don't give a [bleeeep] who's fur is flying. PS: Since I can't post on your board anything slightly bearish....I'd appreciate you staying off my threads. thanks. PS.....How long do you think it takes to get long with leverage? About as much time as it takes to click a mouse....Worry about missing the bull market of all time.....give me a break.

Edited by Teaparty, 13 October 2007 - 03:03 PM.

[dcengr]

Its not about inflation panic this or that, its always been about who's holding the bags and whether they have any more money left to push it in their direction. Right now, sentiment would seem to indicate the wrong people are not only loaded up, but loaded up very speculatively, and on leverage, and more so than they've been loaded up in a very long time. I'm trying to gauge how much money is left out there, but its not an exact science. Shorts are, ofcourse, unwilling buyers and therefore by some measures, plenty of customers for higher prices. But the polls... you see, when they post AAII is at 70% bullish or II is at 70% bullish, it really doesn't say whether those 70% bulls are only 50% vested, 25% vested, or 200% vested.. Theres other ways to tell how much they're vested, like cash left in accounts, margin debt, etc.. I dunno, maybe Ben will drop cash from helicopter and we'll all put it in the market. That's one way to increase the amount of capital out there.

[Remo]

Tea,

Thanks for the charts...

If you don't mind, I'd like to know what is your primary count on the market. You have been posting mixed signals... I like your ew analysis, but your long-term indicators have broken up and are giving very bullish signals (OEX:SPX and NDX:SPX charts have broke their ascending triangles to the upside) and now you are warning of a potential crash.... Why are you no longer paying attention to these or do you think their breakouts are irrelevant? And if you do think they are irrelevant, why is that?

Thank you!

http://www.traders-t...?...c=75549&hl=

Edited by Remo, 13 October 2007 - 03:09 PM.