3 replies to this topic

[arbman]

Maybe you can chime in...

This is one of the counting methods that seems to work about the momentum exhaustion patterns...

If you look, this same pattern also happened on the March 2003 rally, it did top for a short period of time back then.

I expect the 10 wk low over the next week(s) and result in a trading range for the second half of Oct.

Edited by kisacik, 15 October 2007 - 01:19 AM.

[arbman]

The tabulation for the cyclical auto-correlation vs stock symbol counts;

cyclical-4 336 matches
cyclical-6 432 matches -- 1.25wk Hurst
cyclical-8 221 matches
cyclical-10 157 matches
cyclical-12 358 matches -- 2.5wk Hurst: Short term cycle periods are shorter, bullish.
cyclical-14 295 matches
cyclical-16 138 matches
cyclical-18 76 matches
cyclical-20 101 matches
cyclical-22 139 matches
cyclical-24 84 matches
cyclical-26 190 matches
cyclical-28 415 matches -- 5 wk Hurst: slightly longer, compared to the shorter harmonics.
cyclical-30 342 matches
cyclical-32 233 matches
cyclical-34 98 matches
cyclical-36 56 matches
cyclical-38 54 matches
cyclical-40 47 matches
cyclical-42 48 matches
cyclical-44 44 matches
cyclical-46 49 matches
cyclical-48 51 matches
cyclical-50 46 matches
cyclical-52 75 matches
cyclical-54 154 matches -- 10 wk Hurst: slightly longer
cyclical-56 144 matches
cyclical-58 120 matches
cyclical-60 45 matches
cyclical-62 34 matches
cyclical-64 27 matches
cyclical-66 24 matches
cyclical-68 26 matches
cyclical-70 22 matches
cyclical-72 21 matches
cyclical-74 19 matches
cyclical-76 22 matches

Unlike Hurst's though, the cycle lows I am looking are the actual price lows.

[bobalou]

you may want to look here .hope it's a help..good job..
http://www.tfnn.com/...rts_archive.php

[arbman]

Russell 2000's strong 27-28 day auto-correlation suggests the price lows to be in around this week for this last 5 wk cycle.

I take this with a grain of salt since the market is trying to bottom a 10 wk cycle instead. Hurst says to examine the longer term cycles of their own and not get too caught up by micromanaging with the shorter term cycles.

In any case, this could be the chapman wave F like in the 2003 scenario. I suspect if the market gets another big candle down this week, it can take off like in the 2003 scenario for the remainder of the month. A marginal high here leaves more downside next week, imho.

BTW, the strong signal on RUT suggests the IT trend until the next 5 wk cycle low remains UP.

Edited by kisacik, 15 October 2007 - 09:54 AM.