Mexico's oil transport system remains a target for attacks, leading to the possibility of significant economic damage to the country.
The attacks, the latest of which came on September 10, 2007, have led to a climate of concern in the country, exemplified by a report on October 11, of another possible attack, which was eventually described as a "gas leak."
The group that claimed responsibility for the 9-10 attack is known as the Ejercito Popular Revolucionario, (EPR), tranlated the Popular Revolutionary Army, and according to PINR.com, is a group to be taken seriously.
According to the website, quoting Univision, "E.P.R. was created through the union of 14 armed guerrilla movements, including the Partido de los Pobres (P.D.L.P.) and the Partido Revolucionario Obrero Clandestino Unión del Pueblo (P.R.O.C.U.P.).The Univision report, as well as an interview with a former E.P.R. member by Mexico's daily La Jornada, defines the E.P.R. as the heir to the Mexican guerrilla movements of the 1970s. The group defines itself as having a Marxist ideology and has its bases in the country's southern states of Guerrero, Chiapas and Oaxaca."
E.P.R.'s goals are " the takeover of political power; the formation of a government of the proletariat; and the construction of socialism in Mexico."
According to the report, the E.P.R. has been hampered in recent years by "internal" squabbles, but its recent attacks and higher visibility, via its claims to have conducted the attack, are raising the prospect of the group becoming more active.
And if its previous history is indicative of what it might do in the future, it could cause significant amount of trouble, even if only sporadically.
Although the group is officially described as "small," according to PINR "in 1996, the E.P.R. launched a series of attacks against Mexican police and army barracks in six different states. These attacks resulted in the deaths of between 14 to 16 people and another 22 wounded."
According to PINR, "In another southern Mexico town, Huatulco, located in the state of Oaxaca, the rebels attacked a police station, a naval base, the town hall and one other public building. Seven people were killed and seven others were wounded in the attacks."
Stratfor.com notes that aside from E.P.R., three other groups could benefit from the attacks on Mexico's energy infrastructure "the Gulf drug cartel, oil industry union agitators," and "political opposition to Mexican President Felipe Calderon's government."
According to Stratfor, U.S. counternarcotics sources have theorized that Mexico's Gulf drug cartel could be behind E.P.R.'s bombing campaign, as by diverting attention to the pipeline bombings, the government would take pressure away from the ongoig drug wars.
Mexico's authorities disagree, suggesting that union forces, "unhappy" with current Pemex policies could be behind the attacks. They also note that there may be connections between the unions and E.P.R. due to the leftist leanings of both sets of groups.
According to Stratfor, the chances of E.P.R.'s involvement, alone or in concert with other groups, being unions, political opposition, or otherwise, is likely.
Stratfor summarizes the situation as one in which "If the perpetrators are not EPR members, they are almost certainly collaborating with EPR in some way. Regardless of who is actually behind the attacks, having EPR take credit for them serves the agendas of all possible parties: The Gulf cartel does not care who gets credit for the attacks, as long as security forces are diverted from chasing down its drug smugglers; the union agitators and PRD get their desired effects -- either hurting Pemex or making Calderon's government appear incapable of providing security -- without having to be directly associated with the violent acts; and EPR gets credit for the most significant attacks ever attributed to it."
Conclusion
Mexico is a leading exporter of oil to the United States. If the attacks on its pipelines are expanded to those that feed the U.S., the situation will change dramatically.
No one really knows who is behind these attacks or what the final goals are. As we noted earlier in our previous report on this set of developments, the September 10 attack followed an Al-Qaeda video featuring bin Laden's number 2, Al-Zawahiri, who in the video told his followers to attack oil installations.
In our opinion, knowing the international reach, especially the well known installations of groups like Hezbollan in South America, the involvement of Al-Qaida, or at least Al-Qaida sympathizers in this set of developments is not one that should be ignored.
From an economic standpoint, though, Mexico's main oil field, Cantorral, is expected to run out of oil within the next decade. If Mexico's main field runs out of oil, leading to an economic meltdown, and Mexico's pipeline system is in shambles due to systematic attacks, the U.S. could find its highly porous border next to a country that is in the midst of a huge economic and political crisis.  | Oil And Commodity Summary: |
