6 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

SPX chart with cycle phasing . aug 16th low is labeled as a cycle straddle created by non cyclic induced high amplitude of a smaller cycle. the 9/10 5 wk cycle low tends to confirm this. the alternate phasing labeling 8/16 as the 4.5 yr low would place the 10 wk low at the end of this week into early next. this alternate phasing can not be confirmed when smaller cycles are identified using Hurst's various tools.

[Cirrus]

Thanks aire...still holding puts in the QQQQs, IWMs and RTHs into OPEX.

[arbman]

Airedale, I also posted at 10:53 today this on Russell 2000 suggesting a low this week as well. However, my other measures are showing a little later. Perhaps this will be one of those trading ranges where the tech vs energy bottom at different times...

[ogm]

Consolidation week after huge runup. I mean we had a HUGE run up. Though most people didn't feel like it Consolidation is in order. Momentum is cooling off too. Over the next few days we'll get some more bears on board, price in some earnings dissapointments, The dire Christmas, the end of the world, and so on. And then resume the march higher into the seasonaly strong period. Just my 2 cents.

Edited by ogm, 15 October 2007 - 10:43 AM.

[airedale88]

Airedale, I also posted at 10:53 today this on Russell 2000 suggesting a low this week as well. However, my other measures are showing a little later. Perhaps this will be one of those trading ranges where the tech vs energy bottom at different times...

saw your 10:53 post. perfect timing. i think RUT paints the better cyclic picture of the short term past. a range for a few days could be the result, with a resolution to the upside. cyclic uptrend remains strong.

[relax]

Hi airedale Does your work support the case that 10 week bottoms need to be deeper than 5 week bottom, and 20 week bottoms need to be deeper than the 10 week bottom of that cycle i'm just thinking that we may need to get a bigger move down than we got on 9/10, where dow dropped around 300 points from the top cheers!

[airedale88]

relax, in a totally trendless market that would be the case, larger cycles having larger magnitude. the trend created by the sum of cycles larger than the one examined plays a large role in how "deep" a cycle may drop. random fundamentals can also affect this.