15 replies to this topic

[NAV]

The BSE opened nearly 1700 points down from 19000 today morning triggering circuit breakers. This is the kind of lurking danger that i was referring to a few days back

http://www.traders-t...?...c=77210&hl=

Anyway the market recovered nearly 1400 points and is only down 300 points after the finance minister's speech calmed down the markets. The advance/decline line was a chilling 14:1 (decl:adv).

The fall was attributed to imposing curbs on Participatory notes (instruments used by foreign investors to participate in Indian market). But the real reason is the overbought, overheated market with overly optimistic sentiment. The volatility over the last few days has been just insane.

One high net worth investor yesterday in a interview said he was buying more at 19000 and was not scared. His response was "I am not scared. I can't wait to invest more. Wait for what ? BSE 25000 ?". Even scary was a TV guest who said today after the crash - "The crash was so short lived that our clients did not get enough time buy the panic". Wow !. There's just no scare absolutely. I think today's crash was just a warm up. There will be more volatility and some day the real "C" will come out of the blue !

Edited by NAV, 17 October 2007 - 04:11 AM.

[Tor]

Truly staggering NAV. Thanks for posting that. I am loaded up short, as posted yesterday and still holding. If we get the dip today I close, if not I close, so either way I plan to be out today or tomorrow. It would not suprise me to see this result in another (stronger) leg up. THE MOST BULLISH THING ABOUT THIS MARKET IS THE M3 MONEY SUPPLY IMO. It is so strong right now. I cant see it stopping with policy makers reacting so quickly and positively almost everywhere. It appears they have finally sold out to the market but more so its a global phenomenon, and to my eyes at least (I fully accept I may be totally wrong on this), but with the world opening up and so many instruments and avenues of investing available, the speed and circulation of money is going to go darn right crazy. In my own mind I am fairly certain that over the next six months there will be a FULL BLOWN CRASH according to my cycles. All this boils down to opinion and guesswork of course so all FWIW.

[NAV]

I had the wrong link. Here it is..

http://www.traders-t...?...c=77036&hl=


It's the hedgies who are creating bubbles in these emerging markets. The next story will not be subprime, but the hedgies blowing up in emerging markets. It is comiiing...very soon, over the next 6 months to an year. Ironically the very same hedge funds who are scared about crashes in U.S markets are crowding over in the emerging markets, where the real threat of crash exists. How moronical ? Or maybe it's all about returns (non risk adjusted that is) !

[gannman]

nav we have parabolic markets all over the place hong kong brazil usually they end only one way imho regards gann

[NAV]

nav
we have parabolic markets all over the place hong kong brazil
usually they end only one way imho

regards
gann

I hear you.

[Tor]

nav
we have parabolic markets all over the place hong kong brazil
usually they end only one way imho

regards
gann

Wherever we look its a GAWD darn BULL MARKET. Anything. YOU NAME IT ITS A BULL. Talking indices here, not specific sectors/stocks.

We may be in a three. Thats why I dont want to hang around in my short.

Edited by Tor, 17 October 2007 - 04:30 AM.

[ogm]

Wherever we look its a GAWD darn BULL MARKET. Anything. YOU NAME IT ITS A BULL. Talking indices here, not specific sectors/stocks.

We may be in a three. Thats why I dont want to hang around in my short.

How often does the world go through industrial revolution ?

India was nothing but shacks, swamps and jungles. they are still getting eaten by tigers there. And now look at them. Almost 1 bil country in full swing industrialization mode. They all want to live well.

Why do you keep shorting this thing anyway, if you're so bullish ?

[Tor]

Wherever we look its a GAWD darn BULL MARKET. Anything. YOU NAME IT ITS A BULL. Talking indices here, not specific sectors/stocks.

We may be in a three. Thats why I dont want to hang around in my short.

How often does the world go through industrial revolution ?

India was nothing but shacks, swamps and jungles. they are still getting eaten by tigers there. And now look at them. Almost 1 bil country in full swing industrialization mode. They all want to live well.

Why do you keep shorting this thing anyway, if you're so bullish ?

A trade OGM. In bull markets the corrections tend to be sharp and swift, so make the money so I try. I have entered with an average cost of around 1545, current level, no gap up expected, and so i took the view the risk reward looks favourable. I have a stop in at 1555 and may well get out befroe that.

As for the industrialisation, I would add. It is the biggest industrialisation we have or ever will encounter in the history of mankind. 3bn people in the far east alone. also, look at the world we live in today. it isnt like the previous industrialisations we had were there simply wasnt the opportunty to recycle the cash made in one area as the world was closed.

now, whether it be pertol dollars, walmart dollars, zinc or commodity dollars, or housing dollars, the more open world means the money can be recycled and that should perpetuate the bull IMO, which will involve migrations from one bubble to another.

of course it will end. maybe it has, but it doesnt feel like it has to me, just yet anyway. maybe next six months, as far as the stock market peaks, and then we may even see a crash in that time period.

good trading to you.

[NAV]

Wherever we look its a GAWD darn BULL MARKET. Anything. YOU NAME IT ITS A BULL. Talking indices here, not specific sectors/stocks.

We may be in a three. Thats why I dont want to hang around in my short.

How often does the world go through industrial revolution ?

India was nothing but shacks, swamps and jungles. they are still getting eaten by tigers there. And now look at them. Almost 1 bil country in full swing industrialization mode. They all want to live well.

oqm,

Your knowledge of India is so absymally low that it's almost pathetic. Where did you get that education about Shacks, Swamps and Jungles ? Media ?

India has had the nuclear technology since the 70s and it has been running nuclear reactors for decades and that's not a low tech thingy. There has been every conceivable industry from Pharma, Aeronauticals, Defense, Nuclear, Missile technology, Satellites, Rockets, Telecom, Computers - you name it, since the 70s.

What is new to India is not the industry, not the technology, not the knowledge, not the know how, not the money, not the luxury. They have all been there always. In fact the west was attracted to India because of it's enormous wealth. What's new is Capitalism !. It has been a socialist slum for decades and now it's coming out of it with a thunder. Now the western media has swung from one extreme to the other i.e "A nation of snake charmers" to "Emerging Economic superpower". The truth is somewhere between. It's a growing economy, but a lot of growing pains lies dead ahead and the western media nor the hedge fund managers who are throwing money into indian markets have any clue about. There's been enormous media hype and cheerleading about India. I will write up on my blog about "What is and what is not about India", when i get some time.

[ogm]

Wherever we look its a GAWD darn BULL MARKET. Anything. YOU NAME IT ITS A BULL. Talking indices here, not specific sectors/stocks.

We may be in a three. Thats why I dont want to hang around in my short.

How often does the world go through industrial revolution ?

India was nothing but shacks, swamps and jungles. they are still getting eaten by tigers there. And now look at them. Almost 1 bil country in full swing industrialization mode. They all want to live well.

oqm,

Your knowledge of India is so absymally low that it's almost pathetic. Where did you get that education about Shacks, Swamps and Jungles ? Media ?

India has had the nuclear technology since the 70s and it has been running nuclear reactors for decades and that's not a low tech thingy. There has been every conceivable industry from Pharma, Aeronauticals, Defense, Nuclear, Missile technology, Satellites, Rockets, Telecom, Computers - you name it, since the 70s.

What is new to India is not the industry, not the technology, not the knowledge, not the know how, not the money, not the luxury. They have all been there always. In fact the west was attracted to India because of it's enormous wealth. What's new is Capitalism !. It has been a socialist slum for decades and now it's coming out of it with a thunder. Now the western media has swung from one extreme to the other i.e "A nation of snake charmers" to "Emerging Economic superpower". The truth is somewhere between. It's a growing economy, but a lot of growing pains lies dead ahead and the western media nor the hedge fund managers who are throwing money into indian markets have any clue about. There's been enormous media hype and cheerleading about India. I will write up on my blog about "What is and what is not about India", when i get some time.

I'm going to guess you're from India .. don't ask me how I guessed...

Edited by ogm, 17 October 2007 - 06:15 AM.