13 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the nominal 10 wk cycle low is slightly overdue based on recent smaller harmonic cycle's lengths.the ES dec chart below shows the historic ranges for both the 10 wk and 5 wk cycles due to bottom at the same time. price action gave a nominal 2.5 wk projection down, fulfilled, and has held above (based on today's early morning action) the nominal 5 wk fld projection line. a failure to hold above that line today would project downside targets to approx 1506 to the 1516 area. i would expect that to be a fast decline, as the 10 wk cycle, if it has not bottomed already, is bottoming very shortly. an up day today should confirm the 10 wk cycle has bottomed.

[NAV]

From a non-cyclical viewpoint i arrive at the same conclusion. See my post below. If we break below yesterday's lows (which i think we may based on some technical breakdowns i see), then 9/25 lows is the next target (a measured move as well). However, if we have a daily close on DOW within that consolidation channel, then the swing lows are behind us. Inflection point it is.

[Russ]

Airedale88, Your last post indicated you thought a low as late as early next week was in the cards based on some other technicalities, I assume your latest work has now cancelled that from what you have wrote?

[airedale88]

russ, i don't recall that, can you point out the post? i actually thought the low could come in from mid/late last week on, looking at the smaller harmonic cycles (6/7day. 2.5 wk). i was wrong, a little too early in that regard.

[Echo]

Russ,

You are referring to Aire's post on IF the 4.5yr low came on the price low on 8/16, THEN the 10wk low would be due next week. In the same post, he said he didn't favor that scenario, as the shorter cycles didn't point to it. He favors the 8/6 date for the 4.5year low putting the 10wk low right now. The confirmation one way or the other will come with the price action today and tomorrow.

Echo

[Russ]

Airedale, Here's what you said, posted below. I thought the 4.5 did come in on the aug 16, so it is confusing to me, but you also state that the smaller cycles could not confirm it. Oct 15 2007, 09:53 AM Post #1 "SPX chart with cycle phasing . aug 16th low is labeled as a cycle straddle created by non cyclic induced high amplitude of a smaller cycle. the 9/10 5 wk cycle low tends to confirm this. the alternate phasing labeling 8/16 as the 4.5 yr low would place the 10 wk low at the end of this week into early next. this alternate phasing can not be confirmed when smaller cycles are identified using Hurst's various tools. "

[airedale88]

russ, echo's post provides the explanation. 8/16 is a cycle straddle.

Edited by airedale88, 17 October 2007 - 08:53 AM.

[Russ]

russ, echo's post provides the explanation. 8/16 is a cycle straddle.

Ok thanks guys, I need to do some more reading about why the real low is not the cycle low.

[wxman]

Wow, nice call Airedale! SPX now positive for the day

[GOOSE2]

thanks for sharing your work AD