4 replies to this topic

[NAV]

YM closed yet again below the horizontal channel i.e below 14022. ES closed below the upsloping channel that i posted yesterday. For the overnight globex session, the same channels should act as resistance. My hourly indicators continue to remain in a bearish configuration. Now even the daily momentum is in a bearish configuration. Can we move up strongly tommorow and turn this bullish ? Yes, but that's just guesswork. The NYSE MCO has decisively moved below zero. The Nasdaq Summation has turned below the zero line, which is not healthy. For bulls to continue to cheerlead, we need a quick daily close back into the channel. Watching the tape, it does not seem like an easy job. First level of support is 9/25 lows. 9/25 lows should absolutely hold. Otherwise Oct could live up to it's treacherous reputation. So FWIW, i played the dark side today and planning to play the dark side tommorow. I am comfortable shorting YM in the globex session as long as it stays below 14022. P.S - What would make me play the long side tommorow ? - An hourly close back into the channels that i mentioned above.

Edited by NAV, 17 October 2007 - 10:17 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

i have a feeling the hourly is going to resolve to the upside just like the sept 10th sept 11th intraday data. the OEX index PC and equity put call was very similar on those two days as we exhibited today! just my guess! I am looking to go long on weekness overnight or in the morning. I agree that the hourly is in a down trend but the daily is still strong as the ES continues to hold above 20ema!

[Russ]

Looks like a V bottom on the minute charts, I think its going higher into November 8th now.

Hourly 9,9,9 stochastics showed positive divergence as the spx bottomed today. Looks ready to rock to me.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png

Edited by Russ, 18 October 2007 - 12:08 AM.

[bobalou]

think about all the calls $$ ,the boys have to get.

[arbman]

The indices are generally underperforming the projected downtrends in my measurements. The indices generally underperformed the 10 wk low projections compared to the July top so far. It might get more volatile over the next 2 weeks until the market completes its bottoming. But I do not think this is the IT top for at least another 6-8 weeks or until December. I would not be surprised if the indices nearly double the range from the Aug lows to the upside.

Based on the 5 wk (27-28 days) projections, the spy, xlf, iwm, iyr, mdy are now in the bottoming zone or the price lows. The odds are around 68-80%.