4 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

i have not been able to correctly resolve the timing of the expected 10 wk nest of lows. it's gone on longer than my ideal time frame and dropped more than i expected. i've updated the chart i posted earlier this week that suggested a break below the nominal 5 wk fld (cycle projection line) would set up lower targets for this 10 wk low. using the ES closing high indicates 1516 +/- 6 pts and were entering that price window. using the high ES print yields 1506 +/- 8 pts. since overall cyclic trend larger than the 10 wk cycle remains strong up (this 10 wk cycle is high right translated, bullish), ES may undershoot the lower targets.

the 5 wk nest of lows, based on the last identifiable 5 wk low circled on the chart, is now overdue. the 10 wk nest is very close to being overdue.

Edited by airedale88, 19 October 2007 - 01:24 PM.

[boruseek]

aire, what does the extent of this decline tell us about the overall cyclic picture? if a 10wk cycle can do so much damage, does it imply that the sum of all cycles is not as strong? thank you.

Edited by boruseek, 19 October 2007 - 02:04 PM.

[arbman]

The cycles are getting longer because the markets are still operating in a much less liquidity environment than 2006 and earlier this year...

[airedale88]

aire,

what does the extent of this decline tell us about the overall cyclic picture?

if a 10wk cycle can do so much damage, does it imply that the sum of all cycles is not as strong?

thank you.

boru, this 10 wk cycle still shows high right translation, the price top occurrung very late in the cycle (right now, just 6 days ago). also, prices have only broken the 5 wk fld, not the 10 wk. all signs of very strong larger cycle uptrend.

[relax]

airedale love your work Have a series questions, hope you a second or two 1) do you think that the shorter cycles define the nature of the longer cycles, that is the 5 week bottom was quite steep, hence the 10 week bottom should be even steeper and the 20 week bottom should be an even bigger drop - 5 week was 300 points down for dow, 10 week is down 600 now 2) somewhat connected to the first question, how do you predict whether or not the cycle bottom is a "non-event", do you look at shorter cycles? 3) Regarding the bigger picture. How do you determine whether the 4½ year bottom is followed by a period of 4 years up like from march 2003 or by a period of two years and two years down like from october 1998? I assume you look at 9 year cycles and maybe even greater cycles. Would love an explanation. Thanks and enjoy the weekend!