15 replies to this topic

[nicolasillo]

that makes 3 signals back to back

[espresso]

that makes 3 signals back to back

Good job nic, i can see it coming...

[pdx5]

Is there a special significance to 3 in a row?

[Jnavin]

I think it means the signal is more confirmed than with one or 2 signals. I would love to see the results of back-testing of the Hindenberg Omen, say over the last 20 years. Last time I saw it mentioned on this board, I believe it failed, but I might be totally wrong.

[nicolasillo]

Is there a special significance to 3 in a row?

not really, just the initial signal gets stronger. You need confirmation of the first signal. That s all. More signals doesn t necessarily mean more % correction. But, the initial signal gets better confirmation.

I think it means the signal is more confirmed than with one or 2 signals.
I would love to see the results of back-testing of the Hindenberg Omen, say over the last 20 years.
Last time I saw it mentioned on this board, I believe it failed, but I might be totally wrong.

I posted this yesterday http://www.traders-t...showtopic=77725

Graphs in there from 1996 with HO signal on SPX.
Of course, I have read people saying that last June-July had a lot of HO signals.
The way I calculate the HO fulllfils all 5 conditions; and gave just three signals on the 18/07, 20/07 and 23/07.

[espresso]

3 in a row recall those in "99, bottom first then rally then TopTop... That fit with my analysis. jmho

[selecto]

McHugh backtested in 05. There is a link to his study off the Wikidpedia article.

[gm_general]

Hmm, a couple hundred thousand QQQQ puts just went worthless, on opex day. The oft-quoted "volatility" strikes again. That's what it was. It was a situation ripe for it, for sure. But you can't draw any conclusions until the aftermath occurs. But I've seen major market dumps, and most people are bullish then. Do you see that here? All I could hear on CNBC was bearish views. When there is a real crash due, everyone here will jump on you if you say anything bearish, I've seen that too.

[nicolasillo]

Hmm, a couple hundred thousand QQQQ puts just went worthless, on opex day. The oft-quoted "volatility" strikes again. That's what it was. It was a situation ripe for it, for sure. But you can't draw any conclusions until the aftermath occurs.

But I've seen major market dumps, and most people are bullish then. Do you see that here? All I could hear on CNBC was bearish views. When there is a real crash due, everyone here will jump on you if you say anything bearish, I've seen that too.

I think we still have some way to go, vix still too low

[gm_general]

Oops, I meant calls, not puts. Still, too much bearishness, its dripping from every pore of the market.

Hmm, a couple hundred thousand QQQQ puts just went worthless, on opex day. The oft-quoted "volatility" strikes again. That's what it was. It was a situation ripe for it, for sure. But you can't draw any conclusions until the aftermath occurs.

But I've seen major market dumps, and most people are bullish then. Do you see that here? All I could hear on CNBC was bearish views. When there is a real crash due, everyone here will jump on you if you say anything bearish, I've seen that too.

I think we still have some way to go, vix still too low

Regarding this, the relative VIX (VIX/200 SMA) may be of use, it is around 1.4 now, not an historic high but close to one - which is a buy signal, the higher the better.