11 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

They will all be buying the Halloween Mystery (Will they cut rates...?). Pattern recognition is inoperative... this is the third time this year... March, August, Mid-October... When all the bulls are absolutely SURE that the market will never go down, that's the signal I'll be looking for...Not this "hedging the top" exercise. What a bunch of sissies.

In the coming days, Congress will shelve that ridiculous Turkey/Armenian Genocide from WW 1 resolution, oil prices will drop, volume will tail off, the Vix will plummet and the bull market will move right up into the Bernanke Mystery... I sure hope this time the bulls have some gumption. I didn't like the lack of cockiness on the last high... I have a target... 2892. Watch and see if it's hit or not by the end of the month. In the meantime... the operators are applying this stuff liberally. Heck some folks are really going to take a bath in it...




Remember what I said? Volume always gets tested... the low of the 11th was tested on lighter volume now we're going to test the high... Why? Because the test of the low FAILED.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 20 October 2007 - 01:20 PM.

[A-ha]

I appreciate the warning SB. Do you have any technical reason, or to be more specific, do you see anything in volume that supports bear-bait stuff or it is purely based on sentiment. I dont think REITs, banks and other bear leaders will see those swing highs in the next few months even we turn and rally from here to 2892 on Nasdaq composite ... So you see, although gazillion of chart breakdowns, I still dont have high confidence. Does it change anything Edit: I see you added the volume stuff later, so it clarifies.

Edited by A-ha, 20 October 2007 - 01:28 PM.

[SemiBizz]

I appreciate the warning SB.
Do you have any technical reason, or to be more specific, do you see anything in volume that supports bear-bait stuff or it is purely based on sentiment.

I dont think REITs, banks and other bear leaders will see those swing highs in the next few months even we turn and rally from here to 2892 on Nasdaq composite ...

So you see, although gazillion of chart breakdowns, I still dont have high confidence. Does it change anything

See edit above.

[A-ha]

Yes I just saw. Thanks and good luck.

[relax]

Hi semi, could you explain the part about it failing didn't we break below the high volume candle of 10/11

[SemiBizz]

Hi semi,
could you explain the part about it failing

didn't we break below the high volume candle of 10/11

Yes, on LIGHTER volume... setting up a bullish spring. Here, I have some DJIA targets 13335-13403. I find that the DJIA is WEAKER than Nasdaq, so it's probably going to be the first to spring. Semiconductor fundamentals are not as weak as expressed by the action on Friday either... You can see the obvious bullish spring setup here on the SMH. I have already issued my top recommendation... MRVL.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Classic sign of strength in MRVL this week, after a classic selling climax we had in August. On Friday, as SOX opens down 10, MRVL is green, testing the previous day's high (bearish upthrust) it tests the previous low both on lighter volume, leaving a spring setup for next week... target 21.40.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 20 October 2007 - 01:43 PM.

[selecto]

"... oil prices will drop."

Yes, could be, but with all the brouhaha I don't see oil as the best of available shorts in here.

Then there is this: Bloomberg: Dollar May Extend Drop.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p67710324107&r=3096.png

[Russ]

Semibizz SPX the major part of the US economy is showing the biggest volume on friday so that implies a test of that volume will happen with possibly lower prices...yes?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p27662092574&r=4482.png

[SemiBizz]

In the grand scheme of things, we're going to test the August lows. Of course we all know the Nasdaq is the strength in the market right here, and that is probably what is holding the SPX up. It's no surprise then that SPX could give an overt weakness signal on Friday, while Nasdaq gave a stealth sign of strength (Bullish Spring signal). I'd be remiss to point out one more possibility for Monday, because my forecast is predicated on expected lighter volume for Monday. If we should get a volume acceleration to the downside, then we're probably going straight to the August lows...

[Russ]

In the grand scheme of things, we're going to test the August lows. Of course we all know the Nasdaq is the strength in the market right here, and that is probably what is holding the SPX up. It's no surprise then that SPX could give an overt weakness signal on Friday, while Nasdaq gave a stealth sign of strength (Bullish Spring signal).

I'd be remiss to point out one more possibility for Monday, because my forecast is predicated on expected lighter volume for Monday. If we should get a volume acceleration to the downside, then we're probably going straight to the August lows...

Big bullish candles quite often slide right down to where they started from ... about 1480 in this case, that and the 200 day ma should hold it for now anyways. A test of the enthusiasim when the fed intervened and dropped rates.