18 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

No charts, no reason, no nothing. I just miss all the top calls that were spewed out here on a daily basis for the past few weeks. Since today's action seems to have put many bears into their caves for hibernation.. except for Ogm who's suddenly turned bearish. FWIW, I will be mega bearish starting friday, if we hover near these levels or higher for the next 2 days.. my weekly sell signal will once again go active.

[q4wer]

hahaha, your calling top tells us that it is not yet. just kidding, you are a wonderful trader.

[dcengr]

You're mocking me. Very well, I will give you a chart with some squiggly lines or some retracement or sentiment froth or internals or planetary alignment that will prove beyond a doubt that THE TOP is near. Disbelieve me at your own risk. As the market goes down, you will ask "dcengr, please tell me when will it stop?" All jests aside, my most reliable ST trade and weekly trade systems (which I've posted before and were 70 to 90% winners) will go short in a day or two... But that depends on whether we get a bit more floatage to the upside. Its entirely possible that no signal will be given if it takes a dump tomorrow and friday. This only applies to the NDX, not the Dow or SPX btw.

[Sentient Being]

.. except for Ogm who's suddenly turned bearish.

Yeah, Ogm. That's hard to miss. The biggest, the baddest, the most vocal Bull is suddenly starting to grow fur. Not quite a bear but he seems to think somethings in the air....or water.

I'm still calling it a complacently trending bull. And I'm long 4 positions. My bull market happiness indicator is still happy.

[dcengr]

I'll throw an obligatory chart since the usual "i think its going up or down" call isn't being welcomed with open arms like it usually is...

Note all the trades marked there are in GREEN (ie made money) except for one..

[NAV]

What about this "Top" call ? No follow up after that call ?

http://www.traders-t...?...c=78020&hl=

[dcengr]

I think you need to pay attention to this part:

Its all fractal nonsense, but lets see how it works.

As I said before, as long as the downtrend remained intact, it was a decent fractal. The down trend blew apart 10/26/07.

But the fractal was on the Dow, and the Dow has yet to make new highs. If this is wave 2 of wave C down, then we're close to 75% retrace from da bottom.

The fractal I'm following, as I've said before, has a hard time with tops, but the bottoms... still says a bottom in like 40-50 trading days. All on the Dow.. NDX.. its crazy.. but we all know its like 4-5 stocks pushing it up. Any one of them dying would catch it up with the indices...

Now don't get me wrong here.. one fractal of 1998 suggests NDX can take off like a rocket, and did so on pretty crappy breadth. The problem is that when it did take off, semis and internets and softwares were in pretty decent shape in 98.. they're sort of licking the gutter right now breadth wise. I can probably post a crapload of charts showing how unhealthy the NDX advance is, but I know enough that it can go on for a long time.

But, this signal is short term, and its been pretty solid even in the dotcom mania days, so I expect a short term top even if its a few days at least.

[vitaminm]

xlk...current trend.....30

[dcengr]

I can't make a useless top call without showing some EW crap... so..

[NAV]

I can't make a useless top call without showing some EW crap... so..

If you count this way, EW will truly become crap. Look at the wave 3 in pink.

Repeat after me. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest.