9 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

$USD closed at 76.32 nearing the target 76 which noted on 9/29/07.

It is at daily TL support, however, LT support is near 73.

Trade well


~~~

$USD, update
http://www.traders-t...?...=76816&st=0

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=W&st=1980-02-06&i=p85035956242&a=97283781&r=31.png


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1970-01-01&i=p77566946021&a=117316241&r=93.png



$USD closed at 77.72 and is heading to measured target 76.


http://investorshub....age_id=23252526

$USD daily is showing positive divergence at LT support; however, weekly price action is weak - targeting to 76.

http://investorshub....age_id=23237939




http://www.http://in...age_id=23044738


SPX & USD




Strengthening Dollar
Advantages

* Consumer sees lower prices on foreign products/services.
* Lower prices on foreign products/services help keep inflation low.
* U.S. consumers benefit when they travel to foreign countries.
* U.S. investors can purchase foreign stocks/bonds at "lower" prices.

Disadvantages

* U.S. firms find it harder to compete in foreign markets.
* U.S. firms must compete with lower priced foreign goods.
* Foreign tourists find it more expensive to visit U.S.
* More difficult for foreign investors to provide capital to U.S. in times of heavy U.S. borrowing.

Weakening Dollar
Advantages

* U.S. firms find it easier to sell goods in foreign markets.
* U.S. firms find less competitive pressure to keep prices low.
* More foreign tourists can afford to visit the U.S.
* U.S. capital markets become more attractive to foreign investors.

Disadvantages

* Consumers face higher prices on foreign products/services.
* Higher prices on foreign products contribute to higher cost-of-living.
* U.S. consumers find traveling abroad more costly.
* Harder for U.S. firms and investors to expand into foreign markets.


~~~


Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:9/24/2007 5:42:22 PM
Post #of 3062

$USD made a new all time low at 78.31 below 78.33 tweeze LT support.

It shows positive divergences, so let's see whether it will bounce up, but LT target to 76.

~~~

Not So Fast On Weak Dollar Concerns

By CNBC.com | 24 Sep 2007 | 10:54 AM ET

There's a lot of concern about whether a weaker dollar could cause higher U.S. inflation, but CNBC’s Steve Liesman says not so fast. Here, he offers a quick overview of different ways to think about the influence of the currency on the inflation process:

* The dollar is an inflation factor, not the inflation factor
* Imports make up just 16 percent of the U.S. GDP. Imports have risen as a percent of total U.S. economic activity. A lot of import growth has come from countries that have fixed exchange rates to the dollar, like China and other Southeast Asian countries, so a weaker dollar has no inflation impact from them.
* Wages are the biggest cost, not commodities or imports

Imports vs. Domestic Prices

A look at the year-over-year change of consumer import prices vs. core inflation finds only a modest relationship. There are two reasons for that:

* The United States is mostly a service economy and wages are the biggest input to costs in a service economy.
* The U.S. makes up 25 percent of the world's economy all in one market. As a result, most economists see the U.S. as a price maker, not a price taker.

So, what happens to the U.S. economy will determine what happens to import prices. Import prices will not determine what the price levels are in the U.S.


http://www.cnbc.com/.../site/14081545/

[Pabst]

Thank you TS. Is your Oct 1998 rally scenario still in play or did this weeks post Fed selloff invalidate the correlation?

Interestingly many stocks (as well as NDX itself) have rallied the same distance from Aug-Oct as they broke in 1998. It makes me think that a 1998 type move to the downside is imminent.

Edited by Pabst, 03 November 2007 - 10:37 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

Thank you TS. Is your Oct 1998 rally scenario still in play or did this weeks post Fed selloff invalidate the correlation?

Interestingly many stocks (as well as NDX itself) have rallied the same distance from Aug-Oct as they broke in 1998. It makes me think that a 1998 type move to the downside is imminent.

Thank you! Pabst......

We did have a correction on daily price actions from 10/11 - 11/2 (double bottom for SPX/DOW) based on the intermediate low formed in 8/16. I noted 11/2 +/- pivotal day based on timeline analysis and market is so far showing "W" formation for SPX and DOW. For NDX/NASDAQ, it would be corrective triangle formations in uptrend.

I will look in closer to what you mentioned, however, what I stated is "1998 scenario basing the bottom in 8/16 for IT uptrend going into EOY.

Again, thanks and please add if you would like to detail your thoughts.

Have a nice weekend



~~~~

Reference
Market is reflecting the 1998 price pattern formation. After the strong move on 9/18, markets were consolidating - SPX, DOW, and Nasdaq, while Qs trending up.

The consolidating volumes suggest that bears are fully short and bulls are waiting for a confirmation.

While DOW p/c and SPX p/c are showing bearish note, Equity p/c is continuing to be positive; therefore, need to be cautious.

A breakout from SPX 1555, after 8 trading day consolidation, will make strong moves to upside fueled by full short positions.



http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p31595672082&a=96178216&r=279.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54891065640&a=117483238&r=534.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1998-07-01&en=1999-01-31&i=p47380608279&a=117481743&r=395.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p99701641840&a=117483454&r=716.png

~~~


Market is reflecting the 1998 price pattern formation. After the strong move on 9/18, markets were consolidating - SPX, DOW, and Nasdaq, while Qs trending up.

The consolidating volumes suggest that bears are fully short and bulls are waiting for a confirmation.

While DOW p/c and SPX p/c are showing bearish note, Equity p/c is continuing to be positive; therefore, need to be cautious.

A breakout from SPX 1555, after 8 trading day consolidation, will make strong moves to upside fueled by full short positions.


http://investorshub....age_id=23236539

Markets are approaching to breakout zone, SPX 1555, DOW 14015, and Nasdaq 2725.

Because we now have overbought daily price actions, I revisited the 1998 price action pattern.

The price pattern looks similar as we can see on the MACD actions that price has advanced even with divergences.

However, it is better to be prepared for either a breakout or 2-3 weeks pull back from the SPX 1555 resistance.


9/27/07

http://investorshub....age_id=23204977




http://www.stockchar...92375&r=460.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p29666812241&a=115499637&r=70.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p12256120174&a=116141288&r=766.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p93730240635&a=115683364&r=469.png
http://www.stockchar...92643&r=752.png



http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p02949680614&a=120166951&r=523.png





Qs/NDX led this rally and it has already heading to "5" wave as it has broken above bullish RST formation.

[Trend-Signals]

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=270.png

[calmcookie]

Thanks for charts everyone ... great info. I'm closely watching for the U.S. dollar bottom. Happy Saturday, C.C. (just back from biking to Farmers market ... it's a SUPERB day in Austin and the market had a great band playing ... wonderful way to start the day ... and picked up some REAL food ... fresh, colorful, delicious veges !)

[Trend-Signals]

Thanks for charts everyone ... great info. I'm closely watching for the U.S. dollar bottom.

Happy Saturday,

C.C. (just back from biking to Farmers market ... it's a SUPERB day in Austin and the market had a great band playing ... wonderful way to start the day ... and picked up some REAL food ... fresh, colorful, delicious veges !)

Great! I LOVE biking which is a great way to exercise.

Healthy body and mind as well as our skin glowing eating a lot of veggies and fruits along with good exercise.
We often spend too many hours on the computer analyzing this and that, so, I really need to keep in mind that how important it is too eat right, sleep right, and EXERCISE right.

Thanks for your cheer and for reminding me of how important it is to do "ALL" of what you are focusing on.

Have a great weekend, as you are already showing that.

[Russ]

I agree that a rally is coming in the USD soon, I just heard an interview with Ross Clark a technical analyst and he also thinks we are getting close to a low which will lead to an 8-10% rally but then more trouble is coming. It is obviously related to Gold, I have long term projections for gold to go up into 2009 however I think history shows that the US dollar bottoms before gold tops.

[Trend-Signals]

$USD price action will be carefully noted at the 76 daily TL support as noted above; however, next measured target is LT support TL near at 73 and also based on the recent break of the all time low 79 +/-. The current close USD formation at the support didn't show a reversal. Will see

[Tor]

Thanks TS for your charts! The difficulty I have with the 1998 scenario s that there was a full retest at that time, but not this time. policy response came sooner. I am bullish, but I believe this is going to be a break to new highs, which will eventually, maybe some time in 2008, prove to be a false break, basis the platform from hence it is launched, will be intrinsically weaker than the 1998 scenario. Just a long term idea, and I concede I dont really know, and this is just a scenario i am lookikng at.

[Trend-Signals]

Thanks, Tor It seems that I need to clarify about 1997-1998 scenario which I was referring to. I was referring to the specific year formation, not 1997-2000 scenario as I am not super bullish as some are. We have presidential election year in 2008; however, I think that this time will be different from in 2004 as an example that I was bullish during th Aug 04 low because we already have very negative sentiment for a few years which was negated by breakouts. This election debate could be nasty with all kinds of blames. I am not bullish during 2008, especially during heated presidential debate. Again thanks, good luck ~~~ This is bulls' chance and no fresh bull rally in Jan 2008. As is, we have high bearish sentiment which is not new. With the high bearish sentiment existed since 2004, markets rallied this far because the bearish sentiment was negated by breakouts. There will be no spark to rally with fresh money in Jan 2008 especially after Bulls have shown failed breakout above SPX 1550 after getting up only 25 points. Failing to carry uptrend at this point is a big set-back for bulls' as price actions have shown SPX breakout attempt is failed. I think that market sentiment will further deteriorate as bears will scream "bear market" after failed breakout. So, I do not think that there will be fresh rally in Jan 2008, if market turns down here. Furthermore, I think that negative sentiment will accelerate as those who had hoped will be crushed as well. Therefore, this will be the last chance which has good probability to show a decent point above SPX 1550 to change negative bearish sentiment. Price action has to show.