5 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

Everyone thinks that we will see downtrend?





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So far based on my observation of posts, it seems that most of traders (100% what I observed) are looking for downside.

I noted 11/2 +/- as pivotal day, and I see it as pivotal day to upside as a continuation of the recent uptrend since 8/16 reversal as it was intermediate bottom per breadth analysis. As we can see, price actions often show divergences from breadth for a while, i.e. breadth is declining, price is climbing.


http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78592

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPXA200&p=D&st=2007-01-01&i=p67229922524&a=96227204&r=831.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NASI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p11991482645&a=78149576&r=739.png




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SPX formed "W" with positive divergence as of 11/2 close. I noted 11/2 as pivotal cycle day and so far it is showing reversal to continuation of uptrend which is the bullish scenario continuation into EOY.

While SPX/DOW were showing a correction during 10/11-11/2, Qs/NDX were consolidating in bullish RST formation and has shown initial breakout from the formation.

We now have 11/2 pivotal day confirmation, and will see whether markets will indeed show the above case.


http://www.stockchar...92375&r=460.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p29666812241&a=115499637&r=70.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p12256120174&a=116141288&r=766.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p93730240635&a=115683364&r=469.png
http://www.stockchar...92643&r=752.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p02949680614&a=120166951&r=523.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=17&i=p98670794592&a=79285156&r=270.png


http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78578

[dcengr]

Yes everyone thinks we'll be in a downtrend... except for these guys...

[Trend-Signals]

Large speculators were bearish. What I have observed in the past, major market negative sentiment signals negated by breakout which caused rallies.

A poster sent me a chart plotting breadth/pc ratio/sentiment, etc and plotting his version of what McHugh was talking about H. Omen signals; but I commented that the H.O. was negated by breakouts.

Well, guess you just confirmed that almost 100% of traders are looking for down market except a few.

As noted earlier, this means that they are thinking that we have LT top since I do not think that we will see a fresh rally in Jan 2008.

Of course, I view is that is not the case until market proves otherwise.

It is depressing to see down markets during holidays....

[dcengr]

Sentiment polls are very tricky.

This one says people are bearish..

My guess is that we need to go up a bit, perhaps not impulsively, but enough to draw people in after a large decline. And I think that banks will bounce hard, which will make stocks climb.

TSP Talk

[Trend-Signals]

Maybe, but I do not think that financial will bottom and rally hard until it finds LT bottom. It seems that financial will be continuing to be depressed until it finds LT bottom, no hard rally. As we see, the subprime ghost is still spooking the market. Every time some news flashes, financials are selling off. Who wants to jump in now other than itch fingers? But, then the subprime ghost might have gone....?

[Trend-Signals]

Well, it seems that trades are overwhelmingly bearish looking for downtrend.

So, if market indeed breaks out, we will see a lot of short squeeze.


As this was the case in the past.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=78606