18 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Operators have been pretty aggressive lately in futures... gap up, gap down, gap down, gap up.. Dang.. One comment I'd like to make.. back on 10/22, I was visiting Victor Niederhoffer's website.. there he posted something like... "On a day like today one cannot help but feel like Morse" or something like that Then he deleted that post.. Now Morse was some speculator that went belly up in 1864? During one of the panics.. Niederhoffer closed out 2 of his 3 funds lately because he leveraged down into the July turn down.. Now he DELETED that post about Morse, and I suspect its to keep his competition from learning that he was, once again, heavily pressured due to 10/22 downturn, after having survived it. What the hell does this have to do with anything? Well back in july/august of this year, margin calls were flying out like hotcakes.. perhaps some people (perhaps victor included) are getting some margin calls, I know not.. Anyways some musing thoughts.. I do know a few hedge funds like to buy the dips because they think that when treasury prices spike, that there's tons of fear and bottom's had. It works well most of the time, except for them high sigma cases.. and treasuries spiked last dip and this dip.. so perhaps they're loaded up the [bleeep], I dunno. I still think we need to bounce here, and someone keeps saying there's an army of bears out there.. wish they'd post some data that shows that was the case.. because data I have says its not that bearish, including TT polls. Beats me.

[ogm]

Whats up with the futures ? The trend is down. The momentum is down, the momentum in internals is down. Every piece of technical evidence that I'm looking at says the market is falling. Hence the futures. Expect all surprizes to come on the downside.

Edited by ogm, 04 November 2007 - 07:50 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

Futures....

[arbman]

There is a panic in banking, obviously from the resignation of the Citibank CEO, something is definitely wrong with the bank...

[da_cheif]

http://siliconinvest...?msgid=24022841

[thespookyone]

There is a panic in banking, obviously from the resignation of the Citibank CEO, something is definitely wrong with the bank...

Kisa-Too true. They have already taken losses of a quarter billion more than were expected as recently as Oct. 1st, and now seem to be saying they may take an 11 billion hit. The SEC has begun to look at the books of the big players-and my guess is they uncover plenty of "half truths". CNN ran a story relating to Citi tonite-link below.

http://money.cnn.com...rtune/index.htm

[ogm]

There is a panic in banking, obviously from the resignation of the Citibank CEO, something is definitely wrong with the bank...

I think MER news has brought new fear to the situation. If they were hiding some of their exposure in some hedge funds, then there is potential to expect the same from everyone else.

And definitely the ABX charts that mike123 posted say that there is much more writedowns coming.

Look at the bond insurers ABK and MBI they went into freefall. I think at least one of them will not survive this mess. Possibly both. And if MBI that has guaranteed 900 bil in bonds and only has 3 bil in assets goes belly up... then who's holding the bag ?

Probably some insurance companies do. Since their stocks are dropping hard too.

Basicaly the mess is entering into new fear stage.

Either way, whatever it is, the charts say this is going down. And picking bottoms here can be hazardous. High VIX says the moves can be quite dramatic.

Edited by ogm, 04 November 2007 - 09:05 PM.

[thespookyone]

OGM-I was thinking, is your new avatar as appropriate now, when actual panic like items may hit the table? .

[ogm]

OGM-I was thinking, is your new avatar as appropriate now, when actual panic like items may hit the table? .

Yeah, I was considering changing it too But its time will come again

[eminimee]

for short term traders ..this hole is probably a buy ....for 15/20 points...I wouldn't be selling it.