2 replies to this topic

[arbman]

I still favor that these lows will last until Thanksgiving or so. We might be a day away from the low and unless it rips apart below 1465-1480 support area tomorrow, the lows should provide a powerful bounce at least... The compounding effect of the liquidity will not kick here --it is due after January and there is a lot of liquidity heading to the markets in spring, the dominant cycle periods are still slow compared to earlier samples confirming not so much increased demand, so it is hard to expect another up up and away move yet... The market will likely do another move similar to the end of July and then correct one more time from early Dec into January, it should be a less intense correction. I expect a test of the 1560-1580 area until early Dec and then probably another consolidation, although the pure mechanical systems are calling for over 1600 at this juncture... BTW, I am not an on/off type of trader, if the market rallies to new highs and beyond, fine! if the bottom falls and even it crashes, too bad! Basically I don't bet 'all in', neither I go for a flush or straight everytime... Good luck... - kisa

[esther231]

Always appreciate your market view. Thanks.

[arbman]

You are welcome, the market is not beginning to a new bearish cycle, imho. I think it is trying to bottom. The banks will have to make several tests of the lows, but the overall market is still fairly liquid to begin a new prolonged bear market...

The 56-58 day cycle is the dominant cycle for this period and it is right about to bottom...



Today's decline could be the overthrow with the panic in banking...