15 replies to this topic

[denleo]

If you don't live in the United States you have two scenarios under curret sonditions of -91% correlation between US Dollar in S&P 500 Equity Index:

You buy US stocks

"You are right outcome": You make money on stocks and lose the same on the currency = no gain, no loss.

"You are wrong outcome": You lose money on stocks and win on the currency = no gain, no loss.

Now, this is one heck of an investment.

And if this board thinks that everyone but them is wrong (sentiment), I would like to remind you that The United States Of America is not in 1950s any more. Nobody is out there to get us. We will get ourselves ourselves. Remember what FDR said about fear. It will sink in in a few years. Economically it will mean interest rates at 0%.

And one other thing for those who are willing to think during the process of exporting democracy. Read a history book not written by an American. Trust me, it helps. I grew up in so called "super power" who thought that "our" values are better than "your" values (for those who don't know I grew up in Russia). And I still don't know what the word "value" means. When you look at yourself from the outside point of view, there will be things that will make you even more proud and other things that will make you want to hide in shame. But most importantly, it will make you THINK. And that thing called "thinking" will make you a better and stronger person. For CNN viewers I stress the word "better", for FOX viewers I stress the word "stronger"; in order not to get killed.

In other words, try to analyze the world without patriotism = try to analyse the market without having a position.

Denleo

P.S. Prepare yourself for a new environment.

Edited by denleo, 05 November 2007 - 09:39 PM.

[greenie]

Gosh...what happened to you? You are speaking my book !!

[zman]

I couldn't agree more....thanks for the reminder:)

[dcengr]

Everyone thinks China will rule the world. My thoughts are China is STILL a communist country. They're great at copying like the Japanese. Everyone thought Japan was going to rule the world in 1990. They bought the Rockerfeller center from us for overinflated amount, then capitulated and sold it back to us for 50%. What makes America better than China is FREEDOM. Yes there's less of it than before, but I can stand in the middle of my town and say really nasty stuff about my government and no tank will run me over. Hell I won't even get a ticket. Now its true we Americans have gotten lazy, spent beyond our means, and gotten into some trouble.. We'll pay for it. But innovation starts HERE. Not in Japan, not in China, not in Europe, not in Russia. Go look at everything good that's happened in the last century (like TV, satellites, cell phones, etc etc) and it was all INVENTED here. Why? Because we're not told what to THINK. We can THINK whatever we WANT. Its called FREEEEDOM. Everyone marvels at China. How many true economic crisis has China been through? None. In the US, if we find a criminal we promote him to office. In China, they shoot them. In other words, when a crisis hits China, they don't know wtf to do since they have no idea how to come out smelling like roses. I'm going to guess that if they get into economic crisis, they'll revert back to "Don't stand in front of the tank" plan. In the US, when citizens get into a financial crisis, they can blame the government, but inside they blame themselves. We're the US, we're given that freedom of choice to be stupid. In China, when citizens get into a financial crisis, they blame the government, because they control everything, including prices. They were told to be stupid. I'll watch with interest how China survives their market crash. I know some smart guys like Jim Rogers thinks China will be the next super power. But I know that a country that uses a language with thousands of characters.. is destined to be a failure because they can't even simplify their own language.

[denleo]

This post had nothing to do with China. Or any other country for that matter. Or any other person. Or any other group of people... Maybe I was not clear, but this was an attempt to look at things in life and therefore in trading from an objective non biased point of view. This post was about looking at yourself (as a person, or if you prefer, as a nation). This is where the answers are. Answers to success (whatever it is) in life and in trading. Analyze yourself, not sentiment surveys. Analyze your country, not China. This is the only way to win. In politics and in trading. Denleo

Edited by denleo, 05 November 2007 - 10:39 PM.

[dcengr]

Eh I'm fairly well travelled.. I've been to some places where eating with utensils made you upper class. Relatively speaking, the US is in for some hard times. But you go to Europe, and I'm not talking 3rd world but like France or Italy... those people have it HARD. Our quality of life may suffer, but in relative terms, it can get real bad but it won't get as bad as many other countries are in their best of times. If the US quality of life drops as low as Japan or Europe.. there'll be a revolution like Greenie predicts.

[NAV]

Denleo, Did you just finish reading "The case against the Fed" or did you read some provoking stuff on GoldenJackass.com ? The dollar is being systematically devalued over the last 70 years. This is not a new phenomenon. Every other decade, there's comes a prophet who predicts the end of America based on that. India and China are the great 21st century sweatshops, one for services and the other for manufacturing. It's just a wage arbitrage game at this point. There is zero innovation in both the countries for them to takeover America in the near future. Yes, maybe they will transform themselves over time, but it's a multi-decade process. Having lived in both east and west, i can tell you, U.S is what the world wants to be, while the Americans b*tch and moan about everything wrong with the U.S. The death of America is greatly exaggerated !. Your post is very misleading. On one hand you are expressing a strong negative economic bias and the disaster that lies ahead for U.S, which is driving your thinking. On the other hand you talk about looking inward for trading sucsess. I completely agree with you that sucess in life is all about knowing more about yourself. But what has that got to do with economy and 0% interest rates ?

[denleo]

NAV, The post is about fear. I don't read "End of America" nonsense anymore. It is about fear in trading and fear in politics. Being afraid of our own decisions without knowing what other people think or fear that someone is out there to get us. I am done here. Denleo

[trader231]

But I know that a country that uses a language with thousands of characters.. is destined to be a failure because they can't even simplify their own language.

Or maybe it is because those that cannot understand 'complex' languages are destined to failure because of their own narrow-mindedness.

Edited by trader231, 06 November 2007 - 12:49 AM.

[dcengr]

For the record, I also think anyone who puts their toilet paper roll in overhand vs underhand configuration are barbarians.