5 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Nav..not bearish in my books if we get south of there. Let me use OEX as it's important to note that at the July 16 top...spx ended with a failed 5th but OEX made a slight new high to finish a 5 wave C wave to top a B of an expanded flat....I believe the correction actually started in mid June...not mid July. What I think is going on is a much bigger diagonal that will have wave 2 bottoming near 687 (1466/75 spx) and by the time the diagonal is done...oex will test top near 846....but that will be a few months out. If we are going to fall completely apart...I'll sound the panic button on a close below 670 oex........but not before. Short term...we could fill the gap and head down to my target by tomorrow or Thursday if an important bottom is not yet in.

Flat and will continue to scalp these lovely swings. I'm taking a break from posting anything else for awhile. Times like this I'd rather focus on my own work....finding the board a bit distracting right now....and I don't mean you.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=8&i=p65012123784&a=107003689&r=5052.png

[NAV]

Here's my LT count. I am counting the rally from Aug lows as impulsive, which does not allow this correction to overlap with 8/24 highs. So a break of 1480 means a retest of Aug lows in my book, after which the IT degree wave 3 up continues.

Yes, if you beleive that the rally from Aug lows is unfolding as a terminal (ED), then it's possible for SPX to move to 1466 and still be in a IT uptrend. That brings into question as to how you are counting the entire rally from March 2003 or Oct 2002 lows. Can you post your LT count ?

Edited by NAV, 06 November 2007 - 06:48 AM.

[Russ]

Nav, That count would fit with Martin Armstrong's 8.6 year pi cycle low in spring 2011, down for maybe 2.5 years after your projected peak...similar to the dot.com era.

[eminimee]

Long term count may need adjusting...but for the time being...if a big ED..I've got it as an ED of a 3 but not keen on doing that . What is important though...is a test of top on oex would give you the 1800 target on spx. One other point...taking out 1480 south could also be a C wave of a triangle...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66813739553&a=83876953&r=4860.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=3&i=p88250582328&a=113409410&r=170.png

Edited by Teaparty, 06 November 2007 - 07:14 AM.

[NAV]

Long term count may need adjusting...but for the time being...if a big ED..I've got it as an ED of a 3 but not keen on doing that . What is important though...is a test of top on oex would give you the 1800 target on spx. One other point...taking out 1480 south could also be a C wave of a triangle...

Tea,

That was precisely my point. If it's a ED it cannot be a 3. ED always have to be wave 5 (of some degree). So yes, that would mean you will have to readjust your LT count, if you expect it to unfold as a ED.

[eminimee]

....I'm not concerned at this point about the larger count...I'll see what it looks like at 846 oex. ...hell....if it's a 3 of 3 of 3...we could do a series of 1's and 2's all the way up to test of top or beyond and it's not an ED at all. .. ...anyways....I'm out of here for awhile...good trading.

Edited by Teaparty, 06 November 2007 - 07:52 AM.